Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 18 Oct 2022 16:31)
Some people think that without the gas supply from Russia that Europeans will somehow die, revolt or end support for Ukraine in order to resume gas supply.
Those same people underestimate the will of EU citizens. No doubt it will be a big test for the EU block, in particular Germany. No matter what the short term outcome, Russia is finished as a long term supplier of energy.
And when the gas station stops selling gas, what will become of it?
Quote (ofthevoid @ 18 Oct 2022 16:55)
I don't think so. People tend to have an exceptionally short memory and are very forgiving when they are personally impacted.
I can guarantee that many business heads across Europe who depended on cheap energy are eagerly waiting for some peace-plan to be announced so they can maybe get cheap Russian gas again. There's no ideological holding out when it comes to money or feeding yourself. Look at how fast Japan became our friend even though we literally nuked them. How long did it take, one generation?
It might not happen this year or 5 years from now but Europe will not say no thanks to much cheaper energy. Personalize this on an individual level, if you go to the store and see two identical brands of yogurt, one costs 1 dollar the other 3 is dollars. Let's say the 1 dollar brand is produced by Nestle which in some way or another damaged rain-forests, palm trees, whatever. Are you going to buy the 3 dollar yogurt instead out of principle? Maybe at first, maybe while you can afford it but vast majority of people will overlook past these type of ethical issues and will buy the cheaper product. The average German citizen given enough time will say give me a $80 euro gas bill even though it's sourced from Russia who attacked Ukraine 10 years ago versus I'll stay on my US-sourced LNG that costs me $350 euro a month. You already see it today with mass protests and we're in the middle of a hot war, so I wouldn't be too sure what happens over the long term.
The big problem is that Europe can't realistically do a u-turn on gas and oil trade with Russia in the short term, even if it wanted to. If we came crawling to Putin begging for gas right now, or in the next couple of months, he would have the proof that he has the leverage on this issue. We would mercilessly get our cheeks clapped and still not get the amounts of gas or oil that would really alleviate our situation. Resuming trade with Russia only makes sense if/when their back is really against the wall, militarily or economically, so that we have leverage of our own to counter theirs.
These short- and medium-term considerations aside, I agree that Europe will one day resume energy trade with Russia. It's just too beneficial for both sides not to. But yeah, since Russia's reputation as a reliable supplier is irrevocably destroyed, we will never get back to the pre-war trade volumes, we will never allow Russia to seize such a large market share ever again.