Volunteers or conscripts, the city folk going to need more training. Russian brass would be wise to mobilize/deploy and equip their rural soldiers before the city folk. The bits of media out of the Russian countryside show a lot more support for the Putin as well from hill billies.

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Oct 18 2022 08:32am

european governments is the better terminology to use (instead of EU Citizens). also better to say finnished as a long term supplier, to eu. finally the gas station will supply other customers.

This post was edited by ferdia on Oct 18 2022 08:41am

I'm fine with what I said. The governments might want to continue support for Ukraine, and not resume gas supply. If there was enough unrest from the citizens, they would have no choice.

Russia's one trick pony of energy supply is its Achilles heel. We should expect even more aggressive leaders in the future. They are on a timer to consolidate what influence they can.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Oct 18 2022 08:43am

I don't think so. People tend to have an exceptionally short memory and are very forgiving when they are personally impacted.

I can guarantee that many business heads across Europe who depended on cheap energy are eagerly waiting for some peace-plan to be announced so they can maybe get cheap Russian gas again. There's no ideological holding out when it comes to money or feeding yourself. Look at how fast Japan became our friend even though we literally nuked them. How long did it take, one generation?

It might not happen this year or 5 years from now but Europe will not say no thanks to much cheaper energy. Personalize this on an individual level, if you go to the store and see two identical brands of yogurt, one costs 1 dollar the other 3 is dollars. Let's say the 1 dollar brand is produced by Nestle which in some way or another damaged rain-forests, palm trees, whatever. Are you going to buy the 3 dollar yogurt instead out of principle? Maybe at first, maybe while you can afford it but vast majority of people will overlook past these type of ethical issues and will buy the cheaper product. The average German citizen given enough time will say give me a $80 euro gas bill even though it's sourced from Russia who attacked Ukraine 10 years ago versus I'll stay on my US-sourced LNG that costs me $350 euro a month. You already see it today with mass protests and we're in the middle of a hot war, so I wouldn't be too sure what happens over the long term.

In the absence of putting it to the people, it is EU Governments, and not the people, that dictates foreign policy. Also, a change in government (as we are seeing in several EU countries) is a natural "revolt" against the established order. I must stress, it is not a revolt against foreign policy, its a revolt against the current government(s)). In this regard i disagree partially with you statement. I do however agree that, if I caveat at EU Governments, they will not be swayed to bail on Ukraine, noting in the round they are led by a guiding hand, and therefore they will have their people live with whatever hardships befalls them.

This post was edited by ferdia on Oct 18 2022 09:09am

Ill cup one hand and try to fill it up with the will of EU citizens and cup the other in front of Adam Schiff's mouth and see which fills up first

I agree with that generally. I would say that confidence in supply is a huge factor. Russia have shown themselves to be unreliable and heads of business will not turn a blind eye to that. I agree that ethics don't drive business, but even objectively Russia has become the supplier of last resort.

It will take them a decade to transition to supplying China/India in the same quantities as they were previously supplying the EU.

Generally, I agree with that statement. It does however appear contradictory to say that governments will decide, and then concede that by voting for new governments, that actually the "people" will decide.

I don't foresee any violent unrest this winter, but if this is a prolonged situation. I would not count on the mandate of any government.
There are already cracks in the EU's resolve with regards to Italy's new populist government.

One man two cups?

Is Blitzkrieg over? Been waiting for 300 days now and they promised quick 3 day war. Could Putin be a liar?

This post was edited by Lvivz on Oct 18 2022 09:14am