So far, the pressure on Putin isn't coming from ordinary Russian citizens, it's mostly coming from hawks in politics/the military/the media. I'm also sure that the oligarchs are not happy about how this war has diminished their net worth and quality of life.

We are probably still at a point when Putin could pull out of this war and put all the blame on corrupt or incompetent generals, announce a huge restructuring of the military in response to the defeat on the battlefield, and politically survive. However, the longer this war drags on and the more Putin goes all in thanks to the pressure of the hawks, the more untenable retreat will become for him.

On another note, I agree that trying to stage a color revolution in Russia right now would be insanity.

Trying to seize Kiev with a quick checkmate seemed like it would have been a mostly bloodless end to the war, not the brutal kind of escalation that we've seen in Mariupol or other hotspots. Putin has definitely escalated in the past few days by calling up reserves and bombarding the previously conspicuously unscathed Kiev, and that seems like its a response to both western support and the more ambitious attacks on Russian territory that we can only presume were by Ukrainian special forces.

But Bogie has the right of it that Putin can maneuver his way out of this conflict by further escalation but we cannot. Trying to aim for decapitation of the Russian government is the surest way to spark nuclear apocalypse, while Russia bleeding troops in entrenched battles is basically Tuesday to them by their history. And Russia has the winter on their side. Not necessarily to give any tactical victory in Ukraine, where it might do more harm to them, but the looming strategic victory over the EU

Let me guess: he fell out of a window after shooting himself in the back of the head 14 times?

What do you mean by looming strategic victory?

no, that was his manager lmao.

Scholar, neutral, explanations of actual situation.


"As Russia cannot break through the fronts", it "hits the civilians", explained Tuesday October 18 on franceinfo Julien Théron, researcher and teacher in conflicts and international security at Science Po. The Russian strikes intensify in Ukraine. These bombings hit electrical infrastructure in several cities across the country on Tuesday, killing several civilians. The situation is "critical", affirmed the Ukrainian presidency.

"Contemporary theories of war show that when you strike at populations, in general, they stand up against the aggressor", underlines Julien Théron. The use of unmanned drones by the Russians proves that "the Ukrainians were able to establish a no-fly zone" with Western help, he said.

franceinfo: Are the strikes against civilians an admission of failure by the Russians?

Julien Théron: Yes, absolutely, because in reality, these are not military targets, they are civilian targets. However, it is forbidden in international law to target, for example, the arrivals of drinking water because it affects civilians. It is a non-discriminatory action, that is to say that we do not separate the civilian from the military. It doesn't impact the front line to do this stuff. This has a supposedly psychological warfare impact of focusing on the people rather than the military. Of course, since Russia cannot break through the fronts, it goes behind and hits the civilians.

Can Ukraine hold out?

Yes, of course, Ukraine can hold. In reality, all the contemporary theories of war show that when people are beaten, the populations in general rise up against the aggressor. This may seem normal to you, but sometimes there are small exceptions. According to the situation of the belligerents. For example in Afghanistan, despite the fact that the Taliban carried out terrorist and guerrilla actions, they ended up winning despite the fact that the population was directly affected by these attacks because the international forces withdrew. We can imagine that it is the idea of ​​Russia and especially the Syrian scenario. We see more and more in Ukraine a scenario where civilians are targeted, in order to effectively bring down the entire country, civilians included. Just to say: "You are not resisting us!" Of course, the reverse is happening. Not only are the Ukrainians resisting more and more, but the West is increasing their military support.

Why does Russia use drones?

In fact, there has been a reversal of the situation in the Ukrainian skies because even a few months ago the Russians managed to take advantage of one of the weak points of the Ukrainian army, for a long time, the defenses anti-aircraft. They had taken the lead in the air. The situation was completely reversed thanks to Western aid, not only American, but especially French, also with the Mistral missiles. The Ukrainians were able to establish a no-fly zone. Overall, they have made an area where the Russians can no longer go without risking their pilots and their planes very strongly. This obviously has an impact on capacity, it has a human impact, a financial impact, such a political impact in Russia to see planes and helicopters being shot down. And so, effectively, they prefer to use missile systems or unmanned drones.


/e:

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/europe/manifestations-en-ukraine/guerre-en-ukraine-comme-la-russie-n-arrive-pas-a-percer-les-fronts-elle-tape-les-civils-explique-un-specialiste_5425450.html



This post was edited by Meanwhile on Oct 18 2022 08:07am

Also, rural recruits have historically served armies a lot better than city folk regardless of politics. Even back in Roman legion mobilization times. Better base skill set for warfare nd physicality in general than city dweller.

Armies need people that follow orders and not question or try to rationalize with a commanding officer. People in cities tend to have higher educations, higher proportion of white collar jobs, etc. Tough sledding getting volunteers in St. Petersburg when they have their opera, orchestras & other arts ingrained in them through centuries vs Khamzat in Dagestan that has 2 uncles that died in Chechen wars and is expected to behave with 'honor' when duty calls.

This.

Another factor to keep in mind is that people from the cities have vastly higher social capital than poor peasants, particularly in a country like Russia. If the sons of a farmer are being sent home in a body bag, what is he gonna do about it? The parents of soldiers from the city might know high-ranking officials, or journalists, or work in a position of influence themselves. Even if the casualties come from the urban underclass, there will be more media attention to them, or maybe the kids were friends with the kids of a magistrate or something along those lines. Recruits from the cities just have a much shorter line to people with the ability to influence public opinion, so drafting them is inherently more dangerous to the regime.

Some people think that without the gas supply from Russia that Europeans will somehow die, revolt or end support for Ukraine in order to resume gas supply.

Those same people underestimate the will of EU citizens. No doubt it will be a big test for the EU block, in particular Germany. No matter what the short term outcome, Russia is finished as a long term supplier of energy.
And when the gas station stops selling gas, what will become of it?