Quote (bogie160 @ Oct 17 2022 10:34am)
You have it backwards. Russian regime security is at stake, Russian battlefield losses drive further escalation, not the other way around. Russia's invasion has incurred a tremendous cost in lives, money, and prestige. The first two are irreversible, and only by achieving some measure of "victory" can Putin salvage the latter to justify the former.
The alternative (leaving Ukraine to its fate) is untenable, because we need to make it unequivocal that we'll defend our real interests (the Baltics and Taiwan). Defending a non-allied country is one way of proving that. But we need to understand what we're trying to do. The window for a negotiated peace is all but closed. So if we're saying "color revolution in Russia", then we need to be prepared for the realistic use of tactical nuclear weapons. Putin won't survive the downfall of his regime, he has nothing to lose.
Has Western support in the war thus far caused escalation by Russia? It seems to me it's forced them to retreat and hold less Ukrainian territory. They began the war dropping soldiers into Kiev to quickly overthrow the government, and now they are getting their asses kicked in eastern Ukraine. (to be clear, the credit mostly goes to the Ukrainian soldiers, not the West for providing them arms)
Putin's nuclear threats come from a place of weakness, and if you think responding with weakness is a good strategy, I'd love to hear why.
Outside of Biden's slip of the tongue at that speech, I don't see American officials talking about how Putin has to go. Is there any evidence that Putin has shown he wants a realistic negotiated settlement to end the war?
After watching so many clips these past several months of Russian television on the Ukraine war, it's hard to take seriously the idea that Putin has to escalate. Russian TV is basically Fox News for Trump... they will defend whatever he does. He can easily end this war in a way that allows for the propagandists to spin it for the Russian people.
This post was edited by IceMage on Oct 18 2022 07:50am