Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 17 2022 08:06pm)
And another attempt! What's in this one?
First, A general corroboration that as time went on, the numbers increased at a somewhat linear rate, as I used in my back-of-the-envelope calculation in the original post.
Then, a supposition that they must be undercounting deaths by a 40-60% amount. What is the supposition based on? Absolutely nothing that is mentioned. The fact is, there are common exchanges and returns of bodies and POWs throughout this war. Just today there was a big POW exchange.
An alternative explanation: The BBC realized that their count of Russian dead closely matched the official Russian numbers, and so they panicked and did what the BBC routinely does: make shit up to make Russia (or China, or Iran, or whoever else) look worse.
But even if it was true, and I don't think it is, that would put the Russian official count much closer to the real number than even the UK's official numbers, let alone the wildly inflated Ukrainian numbers.
Just maybe, their supposition is based on their experience gleaned from finding the 5700 they did confirm? Maybe not everyone uses social media to announce the deaths? Maybe Russian peasants are sometimes too poor to afford a newspaper announcement after having to spring for burial expenses?
Common exchanges of bodies??? Where in the fuck do you come up with this cockamamie bullshit?
You act as if Ukraine is grossly inflating their casualty estimates (which I'm sure they are to some extent), when they can't possibly go out and discern whether the KIA is Russian army proper, or a militia member, Chechen, Wagner mercenary, or Syrian. We already know the orcs are throwing non-Russians into the meat grinder first.