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Oct 17 2022 06:57pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 17 2022 05:47pm)
Kherson fell right at the start of the war, I was talking about the timespan since early April. Russia was of course making good gains during the early days of the invasion when their forces were still well-ordered and logistics were not a problem yet, and there were no Western arms pouring into Ukraine.

Sievierodonetsk is the sister city of Lysychansk that I already mentioned, they are basically one agglomeration. Think of the two like Minneapolis and St. Paul. ;)





I have better things to do with my life than address every single one of your posts in which you spew Russian propaganda.

The BBC chart suffers from several issues.
1. It only counts actual deaths, which is a much more narrow category than what is usually understood by the term "casualties" in a military context (namely the number of killed, maimed or otherwise incapacitated soldiers).
2. It doesn't include the heavy death toll that Russia's proxy forces have suffered, forces which make up something like half of Russia's entire invading army.
3. It only counts until late June, while Russia has only been on the proper back heel since late July.
4. The numbers don't come from the British BBC, they come from "BBC Russia", their Russia-based subsidiary. Are we to assume that BBC journalists operating in Russia can report and investigate freely without having to fear reprisals, can we expect them to have access to credible, non-doctored numbers?

Oh, an attempt!

Lets see how flimsy it is!

1. Trying to drag the numbers from easily measurable numbers (deaths) to easily hideable numbers (people who go to various hospitals, which certainly the BBC doesn't have the resources to cover).

2. I stated this in the very beginning, of course, explicitly stating "Of course, Russia undercounts in other ways, primarily by not including deaths in the militias." This is a common tactic from dishonest people, be they Western shills or religious zealots: restating your own words and hoping that people will forget what was already said, making it seem as if the dishonest party has corrected the honest party on something. Here is the original post, again: https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=92094408&f=119&p=628381083

3. Again, this is something I explicitly mentioned. Same tactic as above. And no, the Russians haven't been fighting and dying, they've been retreating before lines break.

4. Making assumptions about how the BBC has been corrupted by Putin's iron fist. What would it entail in this situation? It would entail the Russian government intervening in the BBC to force them to change the numbers they got from visiting graveyards and monitoring social media. Does anyone seriously think that such an action would not be covered by the BBC?

That's a big fat 0/4, bud, but thanks for at least attempting.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Oct 17 2022 06:58pm
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Oct 17 2022 07:03pm
Russians soldiers dont have the motivation and it's clear their gouvernement is lying to them, after few weeks on site they realize the scam, it's fucked up.
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Oct 17 2022 07:04pm
Quote (Santara @ 18 Oct 2022 02:51)
They border each other, literally. 110 km separates the Ukrainian bastions.


Their city centers of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk are separated by 6.5 km by air and 11km by car. The outskirts of the cities basically touch each other.
https://www.distance.to/Sievierodonetsk,%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0-%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C/Lysychansk,Luhanska-oblast,UKR

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 17 2022 07:05pm
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Oct 17 2022 07:06pm
Quote (Santara @ Oct 17 2022 05:51pm)

And another attempt! What's in this one?

First, A general corroboration that as time went on, the numbers increased at a somewhat linear rate, as I used in my back-of-the-envelope calculation in the original post.

Then, a supposition that they must be undercounting deaths by a 40-60% amount. What is the supposition based on? Absolutely nothing that is mentioned. The fact is, there are common exchanges and returns of bodies and POWs throughout this war. Just today there was a big POW exchange.

An alternative explanation: The BBC realized that their count of Russian dead closely matched the official Russian numbers, and so they panicked and did what the BBC routinely does: make shit up to make Russia (or China, or Iran, or whoever else) look worse.

But even if it was true, and I don't think it is, that would put the Russian official count much closer to the real number than even the UK's official numbers, let alone the wildly inflated Ukrainian numbers.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Oct 17 2022 07:08pm
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Oct 17 2022 07:09pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 17 2022 08:04pm)
Their city centers are separated by 6.5 km by air and 11km by car. The outskirts of the cities basically touch each other.
https://www.distance.to/Sievierodonetsk,%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0-%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C/Lysychansk,Luhanska-oblast,UKR


Hmm, I wonder what the hell I looked at earlier.
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Oct 17 2022 07:15pm
Quote (Santara @ 18 Oct 2022 03:09)
Hmm, I wonder what the hell I looked at earlier.


Maybe the distance between Lysychansk and Donetsk, rather than Sievierodonetsk?
https://www.distance.to/Donetsk,UKR/Lysychansk,Luhanska-oblast,UKR

That's about 110km by air.
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Oct 17 2022 08:33pm
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine on October 17. Russian troops struck Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia City, and areas in Vinnytsia, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts and launched nine missile strikes and 39 air strikes on October 17. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat noted that Russian forces launched 43 drones from southern Ukraine, 37 of which Ukrainian troops destroyed and the majority of which were Iranian Shahed-136 drones. Five Shahed-136 drones struck infrastructure in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv, including the UkrEnergo (Ukrainian electricity transmission system operator) building.

Can't believe there are pigs to support what Putin is doing. It's just impossible to support this kind of agression.
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Oct 17 2022 09:26pm
Quote (Meanwhile @ Oct 17 2022 09:33pm)
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine on October 17. Russian troops struck Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia City, and areas in Vinnytsia, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts and launched nine missile strikes and 39 air strikes on October 17. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat noted thatRussian forces launched 43 drones from southern Ukraine, 37 of which Ukrainian troops destroyed and the majority of which were Iranian Shahed-136 drones. Five Shahed-136 drones struck infrastructure in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv, including the UkrEnergo (Ukrainian electricity transmission system operator) building.

Can't believe there are pigs to support what Putin is doing. It's just impossible to support this kind of agression.


You're acting as if destroying infrastructure with airstrikes is some kind of unthinkable horror that's been unseen in the modern world.
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Oct 17 2022 09:36pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 17 2022 10:26pm)
You're acting as if destroying infrastructure with airstrikes is some kind of unthinkable horror that's been unseen in the modern world.


Targeting residential areas is a pretty bad thing.

Infrastructure isn't as bad depending on what it is. Googling these cities they all seem to be in or around the contested area so, like, meh. That's part of being in a war zone.


I think the more important thing in this story is it shows pretty clearly what I've been saying for a few weeks. Russia isn't able to supply it's missile systems and is resorting to whatever it can get from whomever it can get. The fact that it's using suicide drones from Iran is pretty weird if that isn't the case.

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Oct 17 2022 09:36pm
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Oct 17 2022 09:56pm
The drones are so cheap they're basically free for a country like Russia. Sure, you could argue that the tapering off of missiles strikes and growth in drone use over the past week is due to running out of missiles (how many times have we heard this?), or you could say that the missiles ensured the majority of targets were struck with bigger, more assured (are they even?) payloads in the first days, and now Russia just lobs these drones in to destroy repairs and hit smaller targets. I have to ask, how do you consider these decisions being made? Russia is just grabbing handfuls of Kalibrs out of a barrel without looking, then comically realizing the barrel is almost empty and switching to drones in a panic?

Ukrainians claiming they shot down 37 out of 43 drones seems like another silly Ukrainian fable. I've seen only two videos of these things being shot down over the last couple days, and they're flying over cities where you have to assume that minimally hundreds of people are filming them come in. OTOH, as you'd expect, hundreds of videos of them hitting things, or just videos of a black sky and the sound of a lawnmower being replaced with the sound of an explosion and a flash.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Oct 17 2022 09:57pm
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