Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 17 2022 06:13pm)
Since early April, Russian forces have captured a grand total of 2 cities (Mariupol and Lysychansk), both of which they had to bomb into the absolute ground before taking over their ruins. Since early July, they haven't made any noteworthy gains anymore while steadily losing ground. Meanwhile, they are wasting $1m-a-piece cruise missiles to shell residential areas and parking lots across Ukraine so that they can appease their wounded ego.
The Iranian drones have proven effective so far, but that's mostly because Ukraine wasn't prepared for them. With jammers and fresh western anti-air arriving every day, this tactical advantage will probably remain short-lived. Also, the Iranian regime has plenty of trouble at home, they don't look like the most reliable supplier right now...
Russia's 300k draft has breathed new life into Russia's forces, but that, too, seems short-lived. The fresh recruits are undertrained, underequipped and undermotivated. Furthermore, even this very limited draft sparked strong pushback in Russia, this is a card that Putin probably cannot play again without risking serious domestic unrest.
All in all, Russia's military position is tenuous at best. They have lost the initiative and are basically scrambling to somehow hang in there until winter (THE staple of Russian strategy since 1812).
There was Sievierodonetsk and Kherson as well. For now.