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Oct 17 2022 02:43pm
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 17 2022 11:20pm)
The baltic states look even stupider when you look at what happened with Lithuania and their insane plays on "recognizing" Taiwan. Have you followed that?

In exchange for a 600 million USD "trade voucher", basically a bribe that can only be spent on overpriced American military equipment, they made a big show of pissing off China. China said "OK, we don't want stuff from Lithuania coming into our country", and so a bunch of German companies had to cut Lithuanian inputs out of their supply chains, because China is like 30-40% and growing of the exports market for most German products. For a measly $600M they did this! Pathetic countries.


omg like no way, bet Lithuania is starving now omg

oh no nvm still better standard of living than both Russia and China combined overall

This post was edited by Lvivz on Oct 17 2022 02:44pm
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Oct 17 2022 02:56pm
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 17 2022 03:07pm)
I'm not convinced of these Iranian drone stories. Russia and Iran deny it (not that they should be taken at their word, but still), and we've seen endless incorrect stories about Russian getting drones, missiles, ammunition from China and North Korea and whoever else.

At root, these stories are entirely sourced from "western officials" and I don't see why they ought to be taken seriously. Some Russian commentators have argued the supposed Shahed-126 or whatever drones are Russian made drones and shown pictures of them. Others have looked at the camera footage from some of the "Lancet" drones Russia has been using recently and saying that and the wing shape suggests an Iranian design.

Up in the air who is correct here IMO, but I think the Western motivation for pushing these stories, true or not, is two fold. First, it complements and helps solidify the claims that Russia is running out of missiles. Second, it helps create another Axis Of Evil type narrative.


https://twitter.com/eminedzheppar/status/1581928914871779333

They are clearly drone strikes, whether they are Iranian manufacture or not, sure looks like Shahed 136 and I think they've got the bits and pieces to prove it, I don't think it really matters
Its another one of those absolutely blatant double standards, the US is cramming Ukraine full of armaments and then turning around and pointing the finger at Iran when their drones are used

As I was saying earlier, what these drone strikes really put into question is the supposed Ukrainian anti-air defense capabilities. These are pathetically slow, fragile and defenseless UAVs. They move in the air slower than a car can move on the ground. They are plausibly vulnerable to small arms fire, let alone any real AA. They don't have the large cross section and infrared target of a jet, but we're talking about glorified kites not hypersonic cruise missiles or 5th generation fighters. Ukraine is getting hammered right in the heart of Kiev by munitions that were designed for loiter operations against soft targets with no AA whatsoever, with the goal being UAVs that can stay over a target until the right moment and plunge in, absolutely not something designed to thwart AA countermeasures.

So when we're talking about Ukraine's ability to fend off Russia airstrikes or a potential bombardment campaign, c'mon.
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Oct 17 2022 02:58pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 17 2022 09:56pm)
https://twitter.com/eminedzheppar/status/1581928914871779333

They are clearly drone strikes, whether they are Iranian manufacture or not, sure looks like Shahed 136 and I think they've got the bits and pieces to prove it, I don't think it really matters
Its another one of those absolutely blatant double standards, the US is cramming Ukraine full of armaments and then turning around and pointing the finger at Iran when their drones are used.


agree

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Oct 17 2022 03:10pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 17 2022 01:56pm)
https://twitter.com/eminedzheppar/status/1581928914871779333

They are clearly drone strikes, whether they are Iranian manufacture or not, sure looks like Shahed 136 and I think they've got the bits and pieces to prove it, I don't think it really matters.

I don't dispute there are drone strikes, lol, just that there's reason to be skeptical that these are Shahed-136. I forget the name and I CBA to go dig it up, but I did see someone present a picture of a Russian drone that looked almost identical to the Shahed-136 and performed the same role.

If there are big Iranian shipments to Russia, good for them and I hope they are getting lots of good feedback so they can make them even better and more effective against NATO equipment.

As to the AA stuff, I gather that these things just aren't the type of things that S-300s can shoot down, and most of what Ukraine has is S-300s. OTOH, S-300s (and -400s and -500s) are much more capable of shooting down faster, bigger missiles and planes. I don't think it translates that not being able to shoot down these flying lawnmowers means that Ukraine can't shoot down bombers and fighters. Russia just the other killed a couple Ukrainian jets from 250km away with S-300s.

There's also the issue of economy. Even if S-300s can shoot down these drones, how many S-300 missiles does Ukraine have? How many of these sub-$2000 drones can Russia fling into Ukraine every day? How much does an S-300 or NASAM missile cost? $100k, $300k, more?

Edit: And here's a funny question - does anyone think Lockheed Martin could develop a drone similar to these Shahed-136 or whatever they are and have them cost less than $100,000 to the American or Ukrainian taxpayer? I doubt it, every American and Western defense contractor employs a division of people designed to inflate costs as much as possible, they have no incentive to develop something cheap and effective.

Edit again: Just checked the cost of NASAMS missiles, and they range from $380k to $1,090k depending on the missile, lmao. Russia is going to bankrupt the entire West using drones you can assemble from AliExpress parts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-9_Sidewinder

https://www.google.com/search?q=AMRAAM-ER+cost

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Oct 17 2022 03:18pm
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Oct 17 2022 03:21pm
we're going to bring back fire balloons at this rate
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Oct 17 2022 03:29pm
Who would win? The most expensive and advanced military force the world has ever seen, or a bomb strapped to a one piece body and fitted with one of these: https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Highly-durable-GT70-70cc-2-stroke_62174011626.html?spm=a2700.details.0.0.5e701bc8qpmlXp

This gets funnier the more I think about it.
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Oct 17 2022 03:38pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 17 Oct 2022 23:56)
https://twitter.com/eminedzheppar/status/1581928914871779333

They are clearly drone strikes, whether they are Iranian manufacture or not, sure looks like Shahed 136 and I think they've got the bits and pieces to prove it, I don't think it really matters
Its another one of those absolutely blatant double standards, the US is cramming Ukraine full of armaments and then turning around and pointing the finger at Iran when their drones are used

As I was saying earlier, what these drone strikes really put into question is the supposed Ukrainian anti-air defense capabilities. These are pathetically slow, fragile and defenseless UAVs. They move in the air slower than a car can move on the ground. They are plausibly vulnerable to small arms fire, let alone any real AA. They don't have the large cross section and infrared target of a jet, but we're talking about glorified kites not hypersonic cruise missiles or 5th generation fighters. Ukraine is getting hammered right in the heart of Kiev by munitions that were designed for loiter operations against soft targets with no AA whatsoever, with the goal being UAVs that can stay over a target until the right moment and plunge in, absolutely not something designed to thwart AA countermeasures.

So when we're talking about Ukraine's ability to fend off Russia airstrikes or a potential bombardment campaign, c'mon.


They can exceed 180 km/h of speed. They definitely are not slow.

This post was edited by Norlander on Oct 17 2022 03:39pm
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Oct 17 2022 03:45pm
Quote (Norlander @ Oct 17 2022 04:38pm)
They can exceed 180 km/h of speed. They definitely are not slow.


Usain Bolt runs at 27 mph
A Shahed-136 moves at 115 mph
A Ford F150 moves at 120 mph
An F-22 moves at 1500 mph
A 3M-54 Kalibr moves at 2200 mph
The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal moves at over 9000 mph
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Oct 17 2022 03:51pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 17 Oct 2022 23:45)
Usain Bolt runs at 27 mph
A Shahed-136 moves at 115 mph
A Ford F150 moves at 120 mph
An F-22 moves at 1500 mph
A 3M-54 Kalibr moves at 2200 mph
The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal moves at over 9000 mph


Cars will very rarely move at 120 mph under real conditions. An object flying at this speed while being so tiny that it doesn't show up on radar and is almost impossible to detect early is a tricky challenge for AA.
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Oct 17 2022 03:52pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 17 2022 05:45pm)
Usain Bolt runs at 27 mph
A Shahed-136 moves at 115 mph
A Ford F150 moves at 120 mph
An F-22 moves at 1500 mph
A 3M-54 Kalibr moves at 2200 mph
The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal moves at over 9000 mph


Tbh whenever I hear Arestovych or Zelensky claim shooting down like 20 out of 25 Kalibr strikes consistently like every other day I'm skeptical. Every time I saw a video of these zooming by posted by an Ukrainian they are either cruising unmolested or changing directions mid-air to slam into some target. Don't think i'v seen footage of one being taken down by air-defense.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 17 2022 03:53pm
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