Wonder if Ukraine will have a single non-nuclear power plant left by the time any of those things arrive. (Ukrainians and their pals have no compunctions about bombing nuclear plants, Russia is a bit more adult.)
This missile barrage that Black Existenz seemed so sure would use up all of Russia's missile reserves in the first day is now on it's fourth day of continued strikes and shows no sign of slowing down. Targets from Kharkov to Lvov to Odessa are still being hit as I type this. A normal person would re-assess their reliance on Western assertions that Russian ability to manufacture things has been severely hampered, but I don't think we'll see that kind of adjustment.
In Europe, however, more troubling economic news:
https://www.energyintel.com/00000183-c727-da97-ad9f-d7674e390000Quote
Fears that the energy crisis will permanently cripple Europe’s industrial sector, a heavy consumer of natural gas, have escalated in the last few months. And it seems that urgent and mandatory industrial demand cuts will need to occur in order for Europe to make it through the next two winter periods without Russian gas supplies. How to cut European industrial gas consumption efficiently without permanently obliterating it on the other side of the crisis was a widespread concern heard on the sidelines of last week’s Energy Intelligence Forum.
Quote
Large industrial companies can move production abroad depending on their supply chains, but small and medium-sized companies, which make up the bulk of German industry, could close shop forever. A recent survey by German industry association BDI found that roughly one in 10 medium-sized businesses in the country has pared back production or stopped it completely because of high gas prices.
Quote
It's not only in Germany, of course. Dutch gas grid operator GTS said last week it expects the Netherlands will use 20%-25% less gas next year due to voluntary consumption cuts but mostly due to industrial demand destruction. The production of ammonia, fertilizers and other chemical products could move out of Europe due to the crisis and might never come back. Half of the EU’s aluminum and zinc production capacity has been forced offline in the last 12 months, trade association Eurometaux said. Closing a plant is likely to remain permanent as reopening it requires “considerable time, costs, and the right competitive conditions,” it said.
Quote
Germany meanwhile has continued to throw money at the problem. This week, a German expert panel has proposed a €91 billion ($89 billion) plan to help German consumers, expected to come out of Berlin’s €200 billion relief package announced last month. Under the plan, large industrial users will get their gas for 7 cents per kilowatt hour for 70% of their gas consumption from January 2023 until April 2024. This will give a temporary lifeline but will most likely spur consumption — exactly the opposite of what Europe needs to get through these next two years of hardship.
I don't completely agree with the above, because I do not think this "2 year window" is a real thing, just a hopeful meme. Europe will never again have access to cheap gas, paying through the nose for LNG is the new normal. Even if the costs decrease from the current high they will only ever reach a bottom that is much higher than piped gas.
Europe has stood by while America bombed it's infrastructure, it has shown that it is so subservient to America that it will never walk back the sanctions on Russia. They are still, seemingly, trying to go ahead with this absurdist dream of a "Russian oil price cap" that no one will follow, and even America has made clear recently that it will not seek to impose secondary sanctions on people who "violate" the "price cap".
From here:
https://www.independent.ie/business/world/german-companies-look-at-offshore-production-as-energy-prices-rocket-42053582.htmlQuote
A study by Deutsche Bank saw production in Germany shrinking by 2.5pc this year and by 5pc in 2023 due to rising energy prices.
"If we look back at the current energy crisis in about 10 years, we could see this time as the starting point for accelerated deindustrialization in Germany," the study said.
Germany's large industrial companies can move production elsewhere depending on cost and customers but for small and medium-sized firms, the backbone of German industry, the crisis will hit harder.
"For German SMEs ... adapting to a new energy world will be a major challenge that some companies will fail at," the study added.
Automotive parts supplier Boegra, which is based near Duesseldorf, reduced production last month due to the rising energy prices. The company, which has already outsourced some production to the Czech Republic, is now looking for a plan B.
"I am travelling to the Czech Republic next week to examine the possibilities of expanding our business there," Boegra Managing Director Tobias Linser told Reuters on Friday.
Another little thread that happened on this forums was a German and Polish guy going at it because the German guy was calling Poland a welfare state propped up by German wealth transfers.
Well good news for Germany! In the future, it won't be providing wealth transfers to Poland, because it will no longer have the financial capability to do so!
This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Oct 13 2022 02:11pm