Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 29 2021 08:36am)

problem is that cops can overpolice a certain neighborhood for two different reasons which are really hard to disentangle: bias against the residents of the area, and the area being a genuine crime hotspot.


it's like... yeah, no shit, cops will look more closely in the ghettos than in a posh suburb with accurately cut lawns.





From the top of my head, the most sensible approach would be the following: set up a regression model which predicts the number of violent crime arrests in a place based on socio-demographic variables like education level, income, urban vs rural and so on. Train this model with data from countries with a more homogeneous population and/or less history of racial discrimination than the U.S. to get an estimate which is as free from racial and classist bias as possible. Then use this model to predict the number of violent crime arrests we would ordinarly expect in certain places in America and compare this baseline against the actual number and quality of reported crime. If necessary, we can add a global multiplier to account for the "arrest-happiness" of various countries' respective police force... The disparity should give us a crude estimate about the magnitude of bias in U.S. policing.

Quote (thesnipa @ 29 Apr 2021 15:42)

100%, and we can't discount the cyclical nature here. overpoliced neighborhoods in the 1930-1980s when gangs rose were not about violent crime. violent crime rates especially homicide was far lower. yet they were drastically overpoliced. families continually torn apart, just for 2010s redpilled whites to blame the state of the ghetto on black family structure.

talking about the violent state of ghetto neighborhoods is fine, and accurate. lacking context tho its disingenuous garbage. lacking cyclical context is awful.

when u hear a story of a pedophile, we all go "gross, what a monster". then if u hear "he was violently abused sexually as a child by family members" we all respond "still gross, but thats sad and a tragic situation. they had no chance".

but when its historically maligned populations they get zero time to make a full recovery or its their fault. fucking hack shit.

Quote (thesnipa @ Apr 29 2021 09:31am)

i have a major in CJ and a minor in stats with all of my undergrad work in Criminal statistics.

who the fuck are you talking to?

or just read better, im not saying the rates are the same, idiot.

Quote (thesnipa @ Apr 29 2021 08:34am)

are you saying controlled for the proportions of violent crime arrests*, divided by the deaths by police, the resulting fractions are similar?

if so doesnt that make sense in a population who's over-policed and profiled being compared to one that isnt?

cops find maybe 10% of criminals, its about where they look. to simplify it.

Quote (bogie160 @ Apr 29 2021 09:58am)

It means that blacks aren't being murdered at higher rates compared to what we'd expect.

Vast majorities (70%+) of blacks want the same or increased police presence in their communities. What does it mean to "over-police"?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 29 2021 08:55am)

all well and good, but the police and the justice system cannot treat crime differently based on how much discrimination the families and ancestors of the perpetrators suffered from. in practice, it's the other way round and a "problematic" family background is held against defendants and leads to harsher sentences, and that should definitely not happen. but reversing it and outright introducing "positive discrimination" in the justice system (i.e. ghetto people get lighter sentences because of their difficult upbringing) is no solution either.

equitable long-term investment in all deprived communities, regardless of skin color, is the only way forward imho. because of past discrimination, this investment would automatically go disproportionately to blacks.
not gonna yield quick results though, and wont be too popular among the well-off middle class.

Quote (bogie160 @ Apr 29 2021 08:58am)

It means that blacks aren't being murdered at higher rates compared to what we'd expect.

Vast majorities (70%+) of blacks want the same or increased police presence in their communities. What does it mean to "over-police"?

Quote (thesnipa @ Apr 29 2021 10:03am)

controlled for other factors black men still are more likely to be pulled over, more likely to serve max sentences, less likely to get parole, less likely to get jobs once released, etc.

the narrative "well crime is high so we have to arrest them" is a massive oversimplification and largely reduces the CJ system to just police, as often happens in this conversation.



easiest way to illustrate is likeliness to be arrested for non violent crimes. which have fairly similar rates across racial divides. loitering, petty theft, drug use and possession, jaywalking, etc. Why are these arrest rates higher?

violent crime is a useful metric, its just woefully short of a good answer.

Quote (bogie160 @ Apr 29 2021 10:14am)

Take possession and drug crimes. They're often accessories to other charges. If you have higher rates of "hard" crime, you'll see drug use charges skyrocket.

We should really just decriminalize most drug possession. But instead we've gotten roped into some nonsensical argument on racist, black murdering cops who need to be defunded.

Quote (bogie160 @ Apr 29 2021 09:14am)

Take possession and drug crimes. They're often accessories to other charges. If you have higher rates of "hard" crime, you'll see drug use charges skyrocket.

We should really just decriminalize most drug possession. But instead we've gotten roped into some nonsensical argument on racist, black murdering cops who need to be defunded.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 29 2021 11:42pm)

Are white junkies, Mexicans or Asians really murdered and brutalized by the police at similar rates as blacks? Genuine question...