Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 12 2022 06:35am)
I wouldn't be so sure of that tbh. Capturing large urban areas is toooough, Ukraine will run into the same problems Russia was facing in Mariupol and Lyssichantsk. They will imho be able to relatively easily take back Kherson city because the Russians there are cut off from supplies, so they can just starve them out. But anything beyond that will be heavy lifting for Ukraine, particularly with the imminent onset of winter.
People were overoptimistic when it came to Russia's advances throughout this entire war, and right now, I think they are overconfident in Ukraine's ability to win back territory - particularly in the areas Russia already controlled before February, where they had years to fortify their position.
Don't really think that point is consensus. It's consensus with people who are overly-optimistic of Ukraine's abilities. If we look at the areas they took back it's largely empty ground/small towns, biggest maybe being lyman and izium. Russia has been willing to give landmass back to preserve troops and not engage too heavily when they are outnumbered. I would buy that point if Russia didn't announce the mobilization but with that, it's going to be incredibly difficult to take back large cities.
edit: realistic outcome for the next 2-4 months is you won't see major territory change hands. The cold and ground conditions will make it much harder to move forward giving defensive positions even a bigger edge.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 12 2022 05:30am