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Oct 5 2022 03:49am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 5 2022 10:42am)
I didn't say that a majority wanted it, although it seems very likely when you look at the amount of resistance that even the pro-Yanukovych provinces in the east put up against the Russian invasion.

Hypothetically, if you today conducted a free and fair referendum in all of Ukraine about whether they would prefer to be ruled by Zelensky and eventually join the EU or by Putin and join Russia, then I think that Zelensky/EU win at the very least 75:25, probably higher.


agreed.
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Oct 5 2022 04:17am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 5 2022 12:42pm)
I didn't say that a majority wanted it, although it seems very likely when you look at the amount of resistance that even the pro-Yanukovych provinces in the east put up against the Russian invasion.

Hypothetically, if you today conducted a free and fair referendum in all of Ukraine about whether they would prefer to be ruled by Zelensky and eventually join the EU or by Putin and join Russia, then I think that Zelensky/EU win at the very least 75:25, probably higher.


probably, but if u did it in individually for zap/kharkov/donetsk/kherson/kri/odessa/mykolaiv, many would vote to join russia btw

highest %to join russia would be in donetsk followed by odessa and kharkov

This post was edited by ownyaah on Oct 5 2022 04:17am
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Oct 5 2022 04:57am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 5 2022 04:29am)
You're still portraying it as if the euromaidan revolution was completely astroturfed and did not represent a genuine sentiment among at least half the Ukrainian people. You're also conveniently leaving out that the protests only turned violent after Yanukovych's special police violently cracked down on them.


Why do you have this dichotomy that everything is either entirely astroturfed or not at all. As has been said many times this thread, the western part of the country surrounding Kiev was staunchly pro-EU, while the eastern part of the country was pro-Russia, and the pro-Russian president had won a lawful presidential election. It was half the country that rioted and overthrew the government while being supported by the US. That's what color revolutions generally are. The US finds minority groups and props them up to overthrow their governments.

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Also, like I've stressed time and time and time and time and time again, you had a split government back then - the president wanted to align with Russia, the parliament wanted to align with the EU. The fact that Russia's ally happened to be the one who held veto power, at least in the short term, does not imply that Russia had "convinced" Ukraine to stay in their fold. Moreover, the question of EU vs Russia alignment was not as salient during Ukraine's 2010 presidential election as many think. Yanukovych mainly won because the previous pro-EU camp around Tymoshenko was perceived as incompetent and corrupt. Your entire argument hinges on this false notion that the fact that Yanukovych was president in 2013/13 proves that a majority of the Ukrainian people prefered to stay aligned with Russia.


The inconvenience that you keep glossing over is democracy. The people had their vote and had their say. Overthrowing a government by force is not democratic. If people opposed Yanukovych's policies, they could have voted against him in the next election. If I don't like what Joe Biden's doing, the answer is to vote him out of office. The answer isn't to seize control of the white house and send him into exile and declare a new united states of america 2.0.

I want to be clear, I accept absolutely zero concessions on the point, I don't tolerate any wiggle room for saying 'oh but democracy is more of what you'd call guidelines'. There's zero legitimacy to a government formed by violent revolution overthrowing a free and fair democracy.
And its dripping in the most obscene irony that this is all coming after democrats have been screeching about January 6th for a year.
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Oct 5 2022 05:16am
Came across this video, my main take away was, oh ok, Ukraine are going to push on crimea? and, I see the narrative is Ukraine will win, this makes me ask the question - what is preventing Russia from aerial bombing eastern Ukraine / Ukraine's armies. I just dont see russia retreating out of the occupied areas, but if they dont have enough men then, and they wont retreat...you figure out what russia will do.



This post was edited by ferdia on Oct 5 2022 05:22am
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Oct 5 2022 05:18am
Joe Biden keeps polling at far below 50% approval rating. More than half the country is against him. The opposition may be about to take control of congress, a split government. Joe Biden only got into power in the first place despite his widespread unpopularity because his opponent was perceived as incompetent and corrupt. When the common folk of the country rose up and protested, it was his special police who got violent and murdered an unarmed protester. All we saw were MAGA chuds strolling through the capitol taking selfies and spouting memes, which is a shame because apparently they had authority to overthrow the government and install Donald Trump as god emperor for eternity. Why not? Why democracy for me but not for thee?
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Oct 5 2022 05:19am
Quote (babun1024 @ Oct 5 2022 02:16am)
There are very strong indicies it was Russia by now. The gas from the crack was supposed to run out but it still leaks with full power meaning someone is pumping gas into. The reason might be obstruction of a possible investigation. Only Russia can pump gas into those. Then, magically both pipes of NS1 are damaged but one of the NS2 is open. Not just open but fully functional according to Gazprom. All of the farce looks like a crude attempt to force Germany to use NS2.


I don't know. It's possible but the more contorted and complex the logic becomes the less believable it is. I don't think at this point we'll know who actually did it, nor do I really trust any investigations to be objective because all those around have already chosen a side.
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Oct 5 2022 05:22am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Oct 5 2022 12:19pm)
I don't know. It's possible but the more contorted and complex the logic becomes the less believable it is. I don't think at this point we'll know who actually did it, nor do I really trust any investigations to be objective because all those around have already chosen a side.


agreed. we can all have opinions though! (sorry im blaming the US for this one, for now.)

another video. I accept this is off topic.

Putin Invades, surrounds Kyiv. Game over. or not. Its hard to beat Ukraine when Ukraine does not want to quit.



This post was edited by ferdia on Oct 5 2022 05:46am
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Oct 5 2022 06:02am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Oct 5 2022 01:19pm)
I don't know. It's possible but the more contorted and complex the logic becomes the less believable it is. I don't think at this point we'll know who actually did it, nor do I really trust any investigations to be objective because all those around have already chosen a side.

Russian side confirmed, second part of nordstream 2 is fully functional and can deliver gas on demand:
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Kremlin-controlled Gazprom (GAZP.MM) has said flows could resume at the last remaining intact pipeline in the Nord Stream 2 network, a suggestion likely to be rebuffed given Europe blocked Nord Stream 2 days before Moscow sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-says-it-plans-examine-pipelines-after-police-probe-2022-10-04/

German side is reporting pressure isn't stabilized because gas is still getting out of nordstream1 cracks. Even if Danish or Swedish authorities want to investigate they can't as long as gas exits.

Another warning from Russia btw: attacking Crimea with US long range weapons would mean direct US involvement in the war and would make the US a war party:
https://tass.com/politics/1518029

This post was edited by babun1024 on Oct 5 2022 06:23am
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Oct 5 2022 06:37am
Quote (ferdia @ Oct 5 2022 06:16am)
Came across this video, my main take away was, oh ok, Ukraine are going to push on crimea? and, I see the narrative is Ukraine will win, this makes me ask the question - what is preventing Russia from aerial bombing eastern Ukraine / Ukraine's armies. I just dont see russia retreating out of the occupied areas, but if they dont have enough men then, and they wont retreat...you figure out what russia will do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgOB0BaQqzs


Russia needs air superiority to bomb eastern Ukraine, and they don't have it.
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Oct 5 2022 06:44am
Quote (Santara @ Oct 5 2022 01:37pm)
Russia needs air superiority to bomb eastern Ukraine, and they don't have it.


so surely you see the problem then, how will this war end. ukraine can win conventionally, putin refuses to lose.
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