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Oct 4 2022 02:28pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 5 Oct 2022 04:09)
who ever tries it will be met with resistance, until its needed, then whoever against it will be met with resistance. that's a problem, but it will be fine.


If that is fine , America wouldn't be going through the greatest divide since it's independence.
I don't see the divide in both the left and right camp being settled anytime soon.

So it is not fine. It will take a long time before there is a bi-partisan agreement. This is the state of USA right now and this is a fact.
Your domestic policies being churned out by whoever who is in power affects your country's future.

Therefore, in a more pragmatic way, by going back to this topic of Russia / Ukraine.
This is the reason why the American government have been planning it for the longest time.

Get rid of Russia and her threat and move in on China to stop her rise in economy, technology etc etc for the next 50 to 100 years in order to protect America's global dominance and global interests. Since the NED couldn't make any movement to dislodge the CCP for the longest time.
They tried with the 2014 HK protest, they tried with the 2019 HK protest they also tried with Tiananmen Square. But the CCP is too ruthless, although they were less ruthless in Hong Kong.


This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Oct 4 2022 02:29pm
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Oct 4 2022 02:34pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Oct 4 2022 02:47pm)
That is why US is forcing SK and Samsung and TSMC to shift their operations to the US, which in turn will sacrifice the Labor force in both countries and it also means you have to produce very technical people in the United States to take over those jobs.
I think you need to research more on Chip manufacturing and it's cost to the environment and the the how much it cost to produce them with regards to it's labor cost.

TSMC could be bullied into moving to USA which means Taiwan will be more or less useless after that and Taiwan will truly be a cannon folder like Ukraine.

SK and Samsung will be quite reluctant to move and they will probably riot and move away from their reliance on the United States.

And you already mentioned that China is good at stealing , didn't you ? You think they haven't stolen the tech and the Know hows in making chips by now? Or maybe they are just keeping quiet about it at the moment.

If they can steal your tech to make a smiliar F 35, stealing Chip tech isn't that hard.
Fair enough , it might be a inferior product at first, but with time it will be just be as good or better.

Just like how the Japanese auto industry wrecked the American auto industry ( Not sure if you know what happen in regards to this particular history ).


That is indeed why we are making big investments in onshoring chip manufacturing. And I fully support it.

Making an F35 is trivial compared to microchip manufacturing. Even the most advanced planes don't need to be produced by the millions. You need at most a few thousand, so it isn't really a concern to bring it to scale.

Making a foundry for microchips that produces chips fast enough and cheap enough that it doesn't drain the entire rest of the world economy to do so is literally the hardest thing humans have ever done in our entire history. TSMC and Samsung's foundries are literally the most valuable thing to the human race to ever exist. Bar none. So no, it isn't the case that "if they can make an F35 they can steal chip technology". Chip technology is in a league of its own.
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Oct 4 2022 02:41pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 5 Oct 2022 04:34)
That is indeed why we are making big investments in onshoring chip manufacturing. And I fully support it.

Making an F35 is trivial compared to microchip manufacturing. Even the most advanced planes don't need to be produced by the millions. You need at most a few thousand, so it isn't really a concern to bring it to scale.

Making a foundry for microchips that produces chips fast enough and cheap enough that it doesn't drain the entire rest of the world economy to do so is literally the hardest thing humans have ever done in our entire history. TSMC and Samsung's foundries are literally the most valuable thing to the human race to ever exist. Bar none. So no, it isn't the case that "if they can make an F35 they can steal chip technology". Chip technology is in a league of its own.


Have you factor in labor cost for onshore manufacturing, the talents that are needed. If The USA could have done it, why now ? Why move production offshore in the 1970s to Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and share technology with them.
Everyone fully supports them , it means more job for the Americans.

Have you also factor in profit margins for shareholders and board members and owners. Have you factor in environmental pollution and cost. Have you checked out the average pay of a Materials Engineer or someone that works in a semi conductor job in USA and in Taiwan.
These are just some questions.

I am not particularly good with this subject but there is a reason why the US haven't tried to force a move back to her shores until now.
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Oct 4 2022 02:45pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Oct 4 2022 03:41pm)
Have you factor in labor cost for onshore manufacturing, the talents that are needed. If The USA could have done it, why now ? Why move production offshore in the 1970s to Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and share technology with them.
Everyone fully supports them , it means more job for the Americans.

Have you also factor in profit margins for shareholders and board members and owners. Have you factor in environmental pollution and cost. Have you checked out the average pay of a Materials Engineer or someone that works in a semi conductor job in USA and in Taiwan.
These are just some questions.

I am not particularly good with this subject but there is a reason why the US haven't tried to force a move back to her shores until now.


We still produce a significant portion of the world's microchips. Google says like 10% or so. We don't produce the highest end chips though, and that's what we are onshoring. We used to make a much larger portion but we've fallen behind.
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Oct 4 2022 02:50pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 5 Oct 2022 04:45)
We still produce a significant portion of the world's microchips. Google says like 10% or so. We don't produce the highest end chips though, and that's what we are onshoring. We used to make a much larger portion but we've fallen behind.


This is where China is at , at the moment.

https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakthrough/

I will give them another 10 to 15 years and they will probably reach Taiwan / South Korea level.
But all this can be screwed over depending on the result of this Russia / Ukraine war.

Anyways I am not that concerned about it since it doesn't matter if China wins or USA wins.
Either one wins my country is in a very good situation.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Oct 4 2022 02:55pm
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Oct 4 2022 02:57pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Oct 4 2022 03:50pm)
This is where China is at , at the moment.

https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakthrough/

I will give them another 10 to 15 years and they will probably reach Taiwan / South Korea level.
But all this can be screwed over depending on the result of this Russia / Ukraine war.

Anyways I am not that concerned about it since it doesn't matter if China wins or USA wins.
Either one wins my country is in a very good situation.


10 to 15 years if everything goes well, which is not guaranteed at a
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Oct 4 2022 03:06pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 5 Oct 2022 04:57)
10 to 15 years if everything goes well, which is not guaranteed at a


Why do you think USA wants to get rid of Russia.
When Russia is done and the Geo Political pressure is on China.

She wouldn't rise even in a 100 years if the US is still dominant and not destroyed inside out by her petty domestic politics.

Another thing to add. Depending on how this current Russia / Ukraine war goes..... depending on how EU react to the effects and how they view America's foreign policy is screwing them over.
There might be risks that the Americans are facing as well.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Oct 4 2022 03:08pm
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Oct 4 2022 03:09pm
Quote (Impy @ Oct 4 2022 02:48pm)
That sounds more like cope tbh. The lullaby of "nothing bad will happen" is always told before shit hits the fan. Take inflation, energy crisis, insolvencies etc. same story as always.

1. No argument in case of a military loss, where govs try to save their asses.
2. See above.
3. True. This is a serious argument. May make the citizens uncomfortable and lead to riots, IF the support stops.
4. False. It would be nato that rsiks a total world nuclear holocaust over a territory grab by russia which isnt even about nato teritory to begin with. Sure they could change the doctrine/agreements of nato and let ukraine join, which would be equal to ww3 start.
5. True -> ww3 start (see Nr. 4)
6. See Nr. 4.

Tbh i dont see a single reason what my country would gain by joining the shitflinging when shits going to become serious.


You can presume it's normalcy bias all you want, and I can continue as if it's well reasoned.

1. A foreign military loss does not meet the threshold for Russian nuclear policy. The policy is to protect Russia itself, not its foreign excursions.
2. See above.
3. You agreed, so I'll leave it at that.
4. I don't care how badly you want to blame NATO, if Russia uses the first nuke, Russia is responsible for the risks of any justified retaliation. You don't just get to use nukes and pay no consequences.
5. You agreed, so I'll leave it at that.
6. Russia knows it cannot use a nuke without consequences in the modern world.

Every country in the world has a stake in Russia using nuclear weapons.
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Oct 4 2022 03:11pm
tbh i never thought in my lifetime i would see the US at war vs Russia.
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Oct 4 2022 03:12pm
Quote (ferdia @ 5 Oct 2022 05:11)
tbh i never thought in my lifetime i would see the US at war vs Russia.


Soon. hopefully not. I want to have a few more girlfriends and fall in love before I die.
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