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Oct 3 2022 05:41pm
Quote (ownyaah @ Oct 3 2022 05:59pm)
The mobilized men are for the most part former contractors you realise? They won't need much more training than a month or two, to get back into it. We have seen fucktons of relatively modern tanks being shipped across crimea etc

Also timelines dont really matter, remember just seoul changed hands 4 times

If ukraine was able to fully mobilize, what makes you think russia cant? Pretty silly take


...who may need completely new training in other jobs. How many of them were tank drivers who will suddenly need to know infantry movements and tactics? What about physical demands? Unit cohesion. Practice, practice, practice. Calling up a million conscripts doesn't make them a fighting force in a month. They need time they don't have.
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Oct 3 2022 05:42pm
Quote (Santara @ Oct 3 2022 06:47pm)
Your word choice doesn't reflect mine. I said I don't think they will, I did not say they couldn't. At this stage, Russian mobilization is extremely behind the curve. These fresh bodies are good for nothing but stopping bullets. No training, no equipment, poor supply. It is many months before something actually useful comes from them. In the meantime, Ukraine has tactical and strategic initiative with a long-since fully mobilized and supplied military and it's now showing up on the maps. By the time the Russian mobilization becomes effective, Russia will probably hold very little of Ukraine.

If Russia nukes, they will most certainly lose the support of their remaining important supporters, like India and China. This alone could spell the end of their war efforts, and a rapid slide into DPRK style isolation.


Most of the people that are being called up are ex-military. I forgot the age brackets but it's basically sergeant and under have a 35 years age limit while officers & senior officers up to 60 forgot the limit but it's lower than 60 for junior officers. So no, they aren't just calling fresh bodies with no training, that's bullshit. Now I'm sure some of these people will need some level of training/retraining depending on needs i.e. I know there's a demand for tank operators, probably more than the current pool of vets trained so obviously some re-training is needed.

In contrast, Ukraine has been sending territorial defenses (basically civilian militias formed to defend their respective regions, which are no where near the front) to the front mixed in with actual trained soldiers. The people highlighting Russia's struggle with men somehow have complete amnesia to the fact that if you look at who the Russians have been capturing via what they've been posting on Telegram/Twitter etc, like 1/3 of those people are 40+ year old's many being part of terr-def. Point is, Ukraine also has a men problem and it's actually a lot worse.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 3 2022 05:43pm
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Oct 3 2022 05:49pm
Former four-star general David Petraeus engaged in a foresight exercise on the ABC channel in the event that Russia would use the nuclear bomb in Ukraine.

What would the United States do if Russia used nuclear weapons in Ukraine? “We would respond by leading a NATO effort that eliminates all Russian conventional forces that we can see” on the Ukrainian battlefield as well as in annexed Crimea.
The warning does not come from a current US official but from an illustrious retiree: ex-four-star general and former CIA director David Petraeus. “All ships in the Black Sea” would also be destroyed, he added on Sunday when interviewed by the ABC channel.


=> How can he know that ?
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Oct 3 2022 05:51pm
Quote (Meanwhile @ Oct 3 2022 07:49pm)
Former four-star general David Petraeus engaged in a foresight exercise on the ABC channel in the event that Russia would use the nuclear bomb in Ukraine.

What would the United States do if Russia used nuclear weapons in Ukraine? “We would respond by leading a NATO effort that eliminates all Russian conventional forces that we can see” on the Ukrainian battlefield as well as in annexed Crimea.
The warning does not come from a current US official but from an illustrious retiree: ex-four-star general and former CIA director David Petraeus. “All ships in the Black Sea” would also be destroyed, he added on Sunday when interviewed by the ABC channel.


=> How can he know that ?



He doesn’t, just people with a title prognosticating for a few minutes of fame, not much different than the people telling you when and where exactly Jesus will come.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 3 2022 05:51pm
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Oct 3 2022 06:25pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 4 Oct 2022 01:51)
He doesn’t, just people with a title prognosticating for a few minutes of fame, not much different than the people telling you when and where exactly Jesus will come.


NATO’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg warned of “severe consequences” for Russia if it uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, echoing private warnings of “catastrophic consequences” from Washington. A retaliatory nuclear strike is possible but would mark a dramatic and dangerous escalation. More likely is a “devastating” NATO response using conventional weapons, said Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s foreign minister.

And this one, is it bullshit too ?
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Oct 3 2022 06:36pm
Quote (Meanwhile @ Oct 3 2022 08:25pm)
NATO’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg warned of “severe consequences” for Russia if it uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, echoing private warnings of “catastrophic consequences” from Washington. A retaliatory nuclear strike is possible but would mark a dramatic and dangerous escalation. More likely is a “devastating” NATO response using conventional weapons, said Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s foreign minister.

And this one, is it bullshit too ?


The ex-head of CIA wouldn't be advertising on TV what they are actually going to do in case our enemy does something, you really think our intelligence leaders are that fucking dumb to broadcast what they would do? Anytime you hear one of these people open their mouth publicly you should take it as rhetoric not much more.

Right now the toughest and harshest response will be publicly portrayed with the hopes of dissuading them from dropping nukes but tbh I don't think we would nuke them if they did. The problem with nuking them is probability of actually hitting all of their nuke silos and disabling them before they get theirs off is very low. You then have nuclear armed Russian subs, modern ones, that are lurking not far from striking distance, each one with capability to carry several nuclear armed rockets. Those are hard to detect/keep track of and in an event of Russia getting nuked i'm sure they would respond.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 3 2022 06:48pm
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Oct 3 2022 07:26pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 4 Oct 2022 02:36)
The ex-head of CIA wouldn't be advertising on TV what they are actually going to do in case our enemy does something, you really think our intelligence leaders are that fucking dumb to broadcast what they would do? Anytime you hear one of these people open their mouth publicly you should take it as rhetoric not much more.

Right now the toughest and harshest response will be publicly portrayed with the hopes of dissuading them from dropping nukes but tbh I don't think we would nuke them if they did. The problem with nuking them is probability of actually hitting all of their nuke silos and disabling them before they get theirs off is very low. You then have nuclear armed Russian subs, modern ones, that are lurking not far from striking distance, each one with capability to carry several nuclear armed rockets. Those are hard to detect/keep track of and in an event of Russia getting nuked i'm sure they would respond.


But no one here said that we would nuke russians if they pop up a bomb in ukraine.
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Oct 3 2022 07:33pm
Quote (Meanwhile @ Oct 3 2022 09:26pm)
But no one here said that we would nuke russians if they pop up a bomb in ukraine.


Logically think through this.

Russian conventional forces would probably get overwhelmed by NATO forces full deployment. You think they would just idly sit by and watch, all of their navy, air force, hundreds of thousands of ground forces be wiped out in Ukraine and Crimea by NATO? My guess, probably not, my guess is they may start nuking. So even without pre-emptive nuking a full NATO involvement could trigger nukes. I mean in this scenario they already used a nuke, the subsequent hurdle to use another one is probably lower.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 3 2022 07:34pm
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Oct 3 2022 07:35pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Oct 4 2022 02:33am)
Logically think through this.

Russian conventional forces would probably get overwhelmed by NATO forces full deployment. You think they would just idly sit by and watch, all of their navy, air force, hundreds of thousands of ground forces be wiped out in Ukraine and Crimea by NATO? My guess, probably not, my guess is they may start nuking. So even without pre-emptive nuking a full NATO involvement could trigger nukes.


so what? just nuke moskow vladivostok st petersburg and so on. whipe them off the planet.
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Oct 3 2022 07:36pm
Quote (SanduLungu @ Oct 3 2022 09:35pm)
so what? just nuke moskow vladivostok st petersburg and so on. whipe them off the planet.


Add a handful of western capitals to that list, that's the so what
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