Quote (bogie160 @ 30 Sep 2022 20:27)
Ukraine is not NATO. The Baltics are NATO. The Baltics should be defended at any cost. Ukraine should be defended at reasonable cost, and the threat of nuclear war is not reasonable.
Russia has proven completely incapable of occupying Ukraine. They've instigated the first mass mobilization in decades in a desperate effort to hold the current front-lines. Talk about "[taking] Germany and France" is the stuff of fancy. The Russian army would driven back by the Poles on their own.
So far they still occupy Kherson, so they arent totally incapable.
If the Russia conquers Ukraine, they will be able to use Ukrainians as soldiers. They will basically double their war potential. Mostly by force (go to war or we will starve your family) but some years of propaganda will also work to turn some Ukrainians into "orcs".
Maybe I shouldnt say that, but our polish army isn't war veteran army. On the paper it might look not that bad, hovewer its not proven in war. Will the soldiers have as much courage as Ukrainians? Will the polish people endure mobilization and ban of travel in case of war, just as Ukrainian do?
I honestly dont know answers to these questions. But would rather dont test it, lol
You say the baltics are NATO, but Mr Putin says he doesnt consider them as part of NATO so attacking them isn't attack on NATO. What will NATO do? Will they really defend, or they will rather say "fuck them, lets pretend Putin is right and this isn't attack on NATO, defending is too much risk of escalation".
Knowing something about current Germany and France I believe it will be the latter, sadly.