Quote (ferdia @ Sep 29 2022 03:55pm)
Neither Ukraine or Russia, on their own, will surrender, Ukraine will ever be supplied and Russia has nuclear weapons. so how do you see this ending ??
I think we're starting to see the lines breaking in Ukraine's supplies of weapons, actually. The last two big "arms shipments" to Ukraine have been largely composed of promises of future production. Recently, we hear that Ukraine is getting 18 HIMARS. No, they are promised 18 HIMARS that have not yet been constructed, because America has already (dangerously, if they had any actual enemies) depleted it's own inventory of HIMARS platforms. We know that Canada has sent so many artillery shells to Ukraine that it is now ordering more from South Korea, as it lacks the ability to produce it's own in anywhere near sufficient numbers.
This piece by a British think tank covers some of these issues, with the expected spin:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfareAside from that, how do I see this ending? I don't try to speculate too much on this, because I think Russia is a pretty incompetent power that has made numerous blunders over the course of this war and indeed over the past 8.5 years of this saga unfolding. With that caveat: I think eventually Russia wins and forces a hard capitulation from whoever is unlucky enough to inherit the ruins of a severely shrunken Ukrainian statelet. The US will not give up and continue to try to fund and arm them, but it will need to be done more covertly. Russia will focus on minimizing attacks into it's new territories or protected states, and try to find ways to offload the problems of many thousands of battle-hardened fascists flush with weapons and resentment into the EU.
How successful any of that will be is anyone's guess, as is this entire scenario.
What I am certain of, though, is that the US is unable to broker a peace because the US isn't politically or even procedurally able to sign on to *any* kind of deal, not just with regards to Ukraine but with regards to anything - Iran, climate, development funding, military procurement, or just today student debt relief. America isn't capable of agreeing to terms and enforcing them across multiple years for anything, either domestically or internationally.