Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 28 Sep 2022 20:10)

we are talking about ultra aggressive strategists in washington that dont care and have used massive lies or false flags in the past

gulf of tonkin, the dead infants in kuwait, weapons of mass destruction in iraq, they have used ridiculous lies to kill hundreds of thousands before, they will do similar shit again to push their agenda on others

Quote

our own government is AWFULLY quiet, i checked the twitter accounts of olaf scholz, nothing

Quote (kusotarre1 @ 28 Sep 2022 19:39)

It's so obvious that America did this that Anne Appelbaum's husband, former defense minister of Poland and current ranking Polish MEP tweeted out thanks to America.

Quote (Ironfister @ 28 Sep 2022 20:41)

The guy is obviously popularity thirsty, now he got his 50k reactions on Twitter about this post, something he never had.
Its clear that his political career is pretty much screwed because of this tweet though.
Hope these 50k reactions were worth it ;)
Please note that as an opposition politician he has zero information from the current government. Just a bored ex-minister desperate for attention, maybe even drunk, lol.

Quote (Ironfister @ Sep 28 2022 11:41am)

The guy is obviously popularity thirsty, now he got his 50k reactions on Twitter about this post, something he never had.
Its clear that his political career is pretty much screwed because of this tweet though.
Hope these 50k reactions were worth it ;)
Please note that as an opposition politician he has zero information from the current government. Just a bored ex-minister desperate for attention, maybe even drunk, lol.

Quote (Surfpunk @ Sep 28 2022 09:42pm)

Russia just plain admitting to war crimes.

https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1575113910658678786

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v2_rul_rule129

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 28 2022 06:32pm)

I think you're really overinterpreting Biden's statement from that press conference. First, he most likely alluded to the possibility of the US really applying the screws on Germany in secret backroom talks if they don't fall in line regarding Nord Stream 2. Second, he was being unspecific on purpose. There was clear dissent between two major allies on the issues back when this press conference took place, and the reporters were drilling into it. Biden had a motive to publicly downplay this dissent without giving details, so he went for a generic "we can end it if necessary". What Biden said was basically the equivalent of Trump saying "it's gonna be YUGE, believe me".

Additionally, I think you're underestimating how much risk such an operation carries for the U.S. in the unlikely case that they get caught. The war is going much better from their perspective than from the perspective of their Western European allies. They might stand to gain if Ukraine refuses to concede Donbass and sign a peace treaty this winter, while Western Europe would benefit from this war ending as soon as possible. At the moment, both the U.S. and the EU have convergents interests in stopping Russia's offense asap and bringing Ukraine into as strong a position as possible before peace talks - but once the peace talks begin, interests will diverge again. They need the Western European publics to stand firm to achieve their geopolitical goals.

All of this would go right out of the window if the U.S. was caught blowing up the pipeline. Likewise, European willingness to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine after the war would imho take a big hit. And last but not least, it would prompt a ton of people to embrace the Russian narrative that the U.S. had deliberately pushed Europe into this war because they want to divide Europe and Russia out of selfish motives.




There are also two pipelines directly connecting Norwegian gas fields to Germany:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europipe_I
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europipe_II

So as long as Russia isn't sending gas to Europe, Germany and Poland are in a similar position right now. Except that Poland's Baltic Pipe is much more accessible for Russian sabotage operations.

Quote (Melatonina @ 28 Sep 2022 20:52)

So what was the purpose of their operation in the sea then ? Someone needs to answer that question.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 28 Sep 2022 19:27)

As to what Russia/Putin stand to gain by blowing up its own pipeline, I can think of three things:

1.: Threaten Europe with gas shortages this winter. "Okay, it looks as if you might barely get through the this winter without our gas - but that hinges entirely on Norwegian gas flowing through pipelines in the North and the Baltic Seas. Be a real shame if "something" ""happened"" to these pipelines in the deep of winter."
2.: Create uncertainty, drive up gas prices, cause strife and dissent within the Western alliance.
3.: Protect Putin from a coup by internal rivals. Ramping down the war effort partially in return for a partial lifting of the Western sanctions was a potential course of action for Russia, one which would have saved Russia's economy from a ton of further economic damage, but at the expense of Putin losing his face and, realistically, his power. Without the Nord Stream pipelines, the upside of a change in leadership is much smaller.

Quote (Ironfister @ Sep 28 2022 08:58pm)

A reason why its Russia:

Europe, no matter what Russia does or does not do, will no longer be dependent on Russian energy resources.

The Kremlin understands that Europe needs about two more years for this to happen. In two years' time, Moscow may find itself in a situation where the sanctions will remain in force, but there will be nothing to blackmail the West with. If so, this is exactly why now is the last moment when Russia can afford, perhaps the last energy blackmail in its history. Since the last one, then the final one, i.e. the one in which Moscow is not bidding high enough, but even off the scale.

The safety of other both onshore and offshore gas pipelines requires urgent analysis. In an extreme case, the scenario of a maritime blockade of Russian ports in the Baltic Sea may require an analysis so that the Russian fleet cannot leave them. The latter could become the first contribution to NATO security by the powerful Swedish and Finnish naval forces

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 28 2022 08:58pm)

I already did, in the other thread: