Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 26 2022 04:46am)

Well, in theory, we want to transition out of natural gas and oil anyway. Also, other suppliers exist as well. So the argument is not so much that Russian gas is irreplaceable, the argument is rather that all the other options are significantly more expensive. If Europe eschewed Russian gas entirely in the future, it would come with a significant cost and permanently reduce the competitiveness of our industry.


Why don't you even read your own source? You've badly misquoted what the article actually says: in 2020, Russia accounted for 29% of the extra-EU imports of crude oil and 43% of the extra-EU imports of natural gas. Per the article, the EU also produces 42% of its energy needs by itself, these extra-EU imports account for 58%. Hence, a rough estimation is that in 2020, Russia accounted for about 16.8% of the EU's oil demand and about 24.9% of its demand for natural gas.



The Nord Stream 2 pipeline was completed in late 2021 and would have been able to replace a significant share of the gas transit through Ukraine. It eliminted the threat of Ukraine blocking the transit and blackmailing Russia and/or Europe, so this hypothetical threat cannot have been the reason for the Russian invasion.

Also note that Russia had deliberately let those gas storages in Western Europe that it owned run low throughout 2021 and did not refill them at the usual pace, so that we went into the 21/22 winter with unusually low storages. (Thanks again to the braindead previous German government who sold the storages to Gazprom, roflmao :wallbash: ) This strongly hints at Russia having prepared this invasion since at the very least the second quarter of 2021, implying that the decision to invade Ukraine was already made by then and that any developments since that point were not the proximate cause for this war.

Quote (Palasan @ Sep 25 2022 03:19pm)

Let me guess, another Eurotrash cretin who blames USA for everything that he thinks is wrong with the world today, parroting any stupid inverted shit he was able to scrub out of his 10 minute research which consisted of one YouTube video by a leftie tree hugging emo.
Boo-hoo

Quote (chopstickz777 @ Sep 25 2022 06:09pm)

More psycho babble. Where did you get your degree in geopolitics? CNN?

Something you might want to consider - the fact that Russia has the most advanced hypersonic nuclear missiles out of everyone on the planet that can easily evade any anti-missile systems possessed by the west, and it has thousands of them.

If NATO intervenes in Ukraine, it will mean mass nuclear genocide. So they will be forced to do nothing as Russia bites off more and more of Ukraine over the coming years. Have fun watching ; )

Quote (duffman316 @ Sep 26 2022 10:24am)

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/09/26/drafted-man-sets-himself-on-fire-at-bus-station-in-russias-ryazan-news

Guy sets himself on fire to avoid being sent to the front line of orcs

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 26 Sep 2022 10:52)

In theory transition out of fossil fuels tomorrow then :rofl:

Or by 2050 if their lucky.
Energy prices will be like nothing we have experienced upto this point.
Even with nordstream2 Ukraine would still have transmitted the most natural gas from Russia. By far.

If Kiev has fallen as Putin had hoped and expected. The monopoly on supply would have been secured.
That's literally Putin's job. Secure the revenue from oil and gas. By any means.
Do we think he acts on behalf of ordinary Russians? Only indirectly.
Or does he act on behalf of the oligarchs? The same ones that support his regime and hide his own fortune for him.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 26 2022 06:47pm)

Replacing 25% of our gas supply is still a monumental task, and like I've said, all replacements will come with a greater price due to longer transportation/more complicated logistics.

I'm surely not one of those dreamers who think a fossil-free society would be possible by 2050 if only we really tried. Still, the shift away from fossils will happen, even if it goes slowly and if we don't ever get to 100% renewables. Therefore, the theoretical reserves that various countries hold will become less relevant over time. Peak Oil and similar scenarios are clearly off the table for the time being.

And your argument is still contradicting itself. First, like I've demonstrated, Russia does not have a true monopoly on the European energy market. Second, by weaponizing gas, Putin has ruined his market share in Europe. Even if his goal in this war had been securing his country's "monopoly"/dominant market position, doing something that will most definitely ruin his position instead (namely cutting off the gas tap) would be horrible strategy. If the "he's acting like the CEO of a gas company"-theory had merit, he would rather have taken the L when it comes to seizing Kyiv than make such a self-defeating move.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 26 Sep 2022 20:03)

Whatever way we dress it up, Europe is dependant on Russian fossil fuels, for the time being.

Quote

Firstly i'm not arguing anything that is disputable. Russia has alot, if not everything to lose if Ukraine acts against its economic interests. That threat posed, was definitely a motivating factor for this 2022 invasion.
You appear to be reasoning that because Russia has, at this point failed to remove that threat. That the threat was not a motivating factor for invading. It most certainly was.