Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 26 Sep 2022 00:22)
Russian casualties don't even matter to Putin. That much is clear.
At this point, what is Russia's win condition?
It appears, hold referendums in Luhansk + Donbass. Flood those regions with reserve troops.
Hold that territory over the winter and hope to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table.
Putin has played his hand in Ukraine and given a goldmine of information to NATO. They now have an in-depth knowledge of Russia's military capability, or lack of.
I'm not convinced by the pretext of liberating Russian speakers in those regions. I'm certain it is more crucial to Putin, to deny the Donbas natural gas fields and control of the former Soviet gas pipelines in Ukraine.
After all the Russian economy is essentially a gas station on steroids. Anything that would threaten Russia's dominance of supply to the European energy market, would be the biggest threat to those who Putin represents.
With that in mind, holding Donbass would appear to be a determining factor for Russia potential victory conditions.
This explanation doesn't hold up to scrutiny. By weaponizing its gas supplies against Europe, Russia has once and for all soured its most important customers. Russia has just proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is unreliable. And with Europe trying to phase out fossils anyway due to global warming, they just pushed them even further in this direction. Furthermore, Russia has more or less forced Europe to negotiate long-term gas deals with Qatar, Canada, the US, Argentina. Long story short, their actions have irrevocably diminished their market share in Europe.
This line of thinking would only make sense if Russia won the economic war so extremely decisively that the Europeans basically come crawling back to Putin with pants down and buttholes prelubed, begging that they'd do
anything to get the gas flowing again. That's clearly not gonna happen; if Russia had such an obvious and lopsided advantage in the economic war, Putin would have played this card right at the start of this conflict and not waited until late summer before closing the gas tap.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 25 2022 05:47pm