Quote (ownyaah @ Sep 22 2022 03:51pm)
my gutt tells me the accord at istanbul was basically:
1. Donetsk/luhansk/zap-kherson areas become semi/full autonomous
2. Ukraine rewrites neutrality into the constitution
3. Russia is responsible for rebuilding the new autonomous areas
It was also the final time where they could've both come out both sides victors of such a deal.
This deal is now gone. Russia will ask for far more than previously, and total incorporation of areas taken and then some. There won't be a lasting peace deal in the coming years imho.
tend to agree with this. also, against my better judgement i will respond to Fender:
Quote (fender @ Sep 22 2022 03:39pm)
i'm curious: let's say you were a peace negotiator - what do you think a fair "compromise" would look like? who would hold which regions? who would have to pay reparations? what would you personally consider "reasonable" positions, how realistic are they currently, and who is more likely to agree to them?
There is no fairness. Also a peace negotiator has no power at this time noting the west does not want peace at this time. In my own country those that ask for peace between ukraine and russia are told to shut up, no compromise, we must defend ukraine, be united, dont let russia win. with that position as a backdrop, throughout western countries, no peace deal can materialize. At this point I would say that there is no realistic chance of a lasting peace for decades. The US does not want peace, Ukraine is happy with this position, the West will remain onside therefore the most plausible outcome is Nuclear. The 2 sides as i said, are poles apart. The US would have to abandon Ukraine for peace to proceed, and thats not going to happen, regardless of who is president. Even if there was a peace treaty it would be broken within a short span of years. No lasting peace for decades is my view.
Perhaps on Putin's death things will change but I expect another (possibly worse) hardliner after him.
Peace could only be achieved if :
1. US stopped sending billions in aid to Ukraine and changed the narrative somehow (this is contrary to their long term interests ergo complete fantasy land)
1. Ukraine government morale broke. (1 will not occur ergo 2 will not occur)
2. Ukraine government accepted that they would have to lose land. (may occur at some point in the future)
3. Ukraine government accepted they will not get reparations. (may occur at some point in the future)
there is no fairness in the world ok.
This post was edited by ferdia on Sep 22 2022 09:08am