d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > Russia / Ukraine
Prev1124712481249125012515001Next
Closed New Topic New Poll
Member
Posts: 23,947
Joined: Jul 15 2008
Gold: 122,361.69
Sep 22 2022 07:11am
Quote (Santara @ Sep 22 2022 01:13pm)
Generally, yes. Roughly 2-3 injured per kill is normal in combat. I think Russia's latest "official" number was between 5-6,000 KIA, and at one point, Zelenskyy admitted to something akin to 100 KIA/day. If we spread those numbers out over some 200 days of war, Ukraine might have 20,000 KIA. Ukraine's number is still understated if you ask me. Russia's is ridiculously dishonest. I don't expect them to be honest however, they're fighting a war. But anyone who takes their numbers at face value deserve to be lied to.


Podolyak was saying 200 kia per day. That is around 40000 dead. If russia/lpr/dpr/wagner has 20000 deaths that would mean a 1:2 ratio.

I think both sides are full of shit and deaths are closer to 1.5:1 in russias favour so far. But i do expect ratio to favour russians far more if they inc density and just pound in a defensive war.

If they go on the move to take zap-city and other big offensives (outside of donestk), then ratio should hover around 1-1.5ish.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Sep 22 2022 07:13am
Member
Posts: 56,462
Joined: Jan 19 2007
Gold: 578,201.52
Sep 22 2022 07:12am
it could take decades before we know the death toll on both sides, if ever.
Member
Posts: 23,947
Joined: Jul 15 2008
Gold: 122,361.69
Sep 22 2022 07:13am
Quote (ferdia @ Sep 22 2022 04:12pm)
it could take decades before we know the death toll on both sides, if ever.


a lot of the time death toll doesn't really mean much in war anyway.. It boils down to far more than that.
Member
Posts: 56,462
Joined: Jan 19 2007
Gold: 578,201.52
Sep 22 2022 07:14am
Quote (ownyaah @ Sep 22 2022 02:13pm)
a lot of the time death toll doesn't really mean much in war anyway.. It boils down to far more than that.

i dont disagree with this statement.
Member
Posts: 19,311
Joined: Feb 24 2018
Gold: 9,215.50
Sep 22 2022 07:35am
Dead combatants alone shouldn't be that high on both sides. I expect around 20k on Russian and 30-40k on Ukrainian side. Injured and otherwise not able to contribute should be at around 40-60k on Russian side and almost 80-100k on Ukrainian side. Most injuries which put people out of action are from shelling. Russia shells much more than Ukraine.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Sep 22 2022 07:50am
Member
Posts: 30,165
Joined: Sep 10 2004
Gold: 0.00
Warn: 30%
Sep 22 2022 08:39am
Quote (ferdia @ 22 Sep 2022 11:26)
Reported on the Irish state broadcaster channel:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the United Nations meeting in New York that Ukraine wanted "just punishment" for crimes Russia has committed against his nation. In a unique recorded address to the UN General Assembly, he set out Ukraine's five-point plan for a durable peace. Only seven countries had voted against allowing him to deliver his address by video - Belarus, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, Nicaragua and Russia. Normally leaders must turn up in person to address the General Assembly.

President Zelensky said his five non-negotiable conditions for peace included punishment for Russian aggression, restoration of Ukraine's security, territorial integrity and security guarantees. He repeatedly stressed that he wanted Russia punished - punished for aggression, for violation of borders and territorial integrity, and for crimes against civilians. He said punishment, including economic sanctions, must stay in place until the internationally recognised border between Ukraine and Russia is restored.

"A crime has been committed against Ukraine. And we demand just punishment. "The crime was committed against our state borders. The crime was committed against the lives of our people. The crime was committed against the dignity of our women and men. The crime was committed against the values that make you and me a community of the United Nations. "Ukraine demands punishment for trying to steal our territory, punishment for the murders of thousands of people, punishment for tortures and humiliations of women and men. "Punishment for that catastrophic turbulence that Russia provoked with its illegal war. And not only for us, Ukrainians, but for the whole world."
He said his government is ready for real peace talks - but would not accept Ukrainian neutrality as a price of peace.

He also demanded reparations from Russia for the damage it had caused to Ukraine, and insisted that Russian assets be used to pay for the repairs to Ukraine's physical infrastructure. Ukraine could win back all its territory by military means, he said, and called for other nations to supply Ukraine with all the weapons and intelligence it needed to win the war. He said the fact that 101 nations voted in favour of him appearing at the General Assembly by video link – compared with just seven who voted against - showed that the cause of Ukraine enjoyed widespread support.

Many delegations gave Mr Zelensky a standing ovation after his speech. The Russian delegation remained seated. Ukraine and its Western allies have accused Russian forces of war crimes in different parts of the country they have occupied. Russia denies the allegations and says it does not target civilians. EU Foreign Ministers were called into an emergency meeting in New York by the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell. Amidst talk of new sanctions on Russia in response to its mobilisation of army reserves and the calling of referendums in occupied parts of Ukraine, the EU wants to ensure member state minsters offer a coordinated message for the rest of the week at the UK.

Later today the UN Security Council will hold a special debate on the situation in Ukraine. In an unusual move it will be attended by the foreign ministers of 14 of the 15 member states, including Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney. It will be chaired by French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and will also hear from Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Mr Coveney told RTÉ News he expects the debate to be "robust, abrasive and blunt".

Meanwhile, Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US and the UK's Permanent Representative to the EU, said Vladimir Putin's announcement is a sign of "failure", "was never the plan" and shows how badly Russia is faring in this war. Mr Putin's hints about turning to tactical nuclear weapons are "sinister and deeply concerning", he said, adding: "We need the strongest possible messages both in public and private channels to the Russians of how profoundly grave the consequences would be to do this."

-------------

i.e. both sides are basically doubling down here. obviously all this can be considered as further escalation, and at this point I think we have to serious consider/accept that we are edging closer to the use of non conventional weapons by russia. reason: neither side relenting, neither side compromising, poles apart in position, and current position ever worsening for russia.


i'm curious: let's say you were a peace negotiator - what do you think a fair "compromise" would look like? who would hold which regions? who would have to pay reparations? what would you personally consider "reasonable" positions, how realistic are they currently, and who is more likely to agree to them?
Member
Posts: 3,771
Joined: Sep 29 2021
Gold: 14,158.00
Sep 22 2022 08:44am
Quote (ferdia @ Sep 22 2022 07:12am)
it could take decades before we know the death toll on both sides, if ever.


Russia gave their casualties. It's around 6 thousand, with more than half of those sustained during the first two months due to the heavy offensive operations. Things have slowed down since then.

That doesn't count DPR/LPR or Wagner or the Chechens, throw them in and the casualties for allied forces are around 15k.

Ukraine is much higher due to the extremely high casualty rate caused by Russian shelling. I mean, they lost 5k trying to attack Kherson and by all accounts, another 5k or so when they went into Kharkov.

It truly is a war, down to the "last Ukrainian"

The entire male Ukrainian population shall be sacrificed to fit the needs of Brandon & Co
Member
Posts: 8,545
Joined: Oct 4 2021
Gold: 281.64
Sep 22 2022 08:51am
Quote (chopstickz777 @ 21 Sep 2022 19:55)
Lol that's rich coming from you. When have you ever been right about anything again?


When I ridiculed people saying the invasion was western propaganda and would never happen, when I ridiculed people that said Ukraine has absolutely zero chance of winning. Shall I continue on just Russia/Ukraine, or would you like me to branch out to other topics?

Quote (chopstickz777 @ 22 Sep 2022 07:44)
Russia gave their casualties. It's around 6 thousand, with more than half of those sustained during the first two months due to the heavy offensive operations. Things have slowed down since then.


Its good so many "americans" are getting their news directly from the kremlin.

This post was edited by Cascadian on Sep 22 2022 08:52am
Member
Posts: 23,947
Joined: Jul 15 2008
Gold: 122,361.69
Sep 22 2022 08:51am
Quote (fender @ Sep 22 2022 05:39pm)
i'm curious: let's say you were a peace negotiator - what do you think a fair "compromise" would look like? who would hold which regions? who would have to pay reparations? what would you personally consider "reasonable" positions, how realistic are they currently, and who is more likely to agree to them?


my gutt tells me the accord at istanbul was basically:
1. Donetsk/luhansk become autonomous and zap-kherson become demilitarized.
2. Ukraine writes neutrality into the constitution
3. Russia is responsible for rebuilding the new autonomous areas/demilitarized areas.

It was also the final time where they could've both come out both sides victors of such a deal.

This deal is now gone. Russia will ask for far more than previously, and total incorporation of areas taken and then some. There won't be a lasting peace deal in the coming years imho. Weapons pause, maybe. An actual settlement, no way. This is an existential equation now for both sides. Partial mobilization is just a small step of a long journey. At the end of this zelensky, and his entire gene pool should be eradicated for walking back on the peace-deal in istanbul.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Sep 22 2022 08:54am
Member
Posts: 34,649
Joined: Jul 2 2007
Gold: 273.37
Sep 22 2022 09:02am
Quote (fender @ Sep 22 2022 10:39am)
i'm curious: let's say you were a peace negotiator - what do you think a fair "compromise" would look like? who would hold which regions? who would have to pay reparations? what would you personally consider "reasonable" positions, how realistic are they currently, and who is more likely to agree to them?


At this point in time? Donetsk, Kherson, and Luhansk are divided along the line of control and are absorbed by Russia. Crimea is recognized. Russia agrees to pay an indemnity and absorb the infrastructure costs of both the ceded territory and those of Ukraine. Russia withdraws from Kherson. Ukraine does not agree to neutrality, and becomes increasingly tied to NATO.

That's based on the reality as of right now. If the Russian frontline in Kherson / Luhansk / Donetsk collapses, in full or part, Ukraine can demand more. If Russia stabilizes, and mobilization goes according to plan, they will demand more.
Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
Prev1124712481249125012515001Next
Closed New Topic New Poll