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Sep 22 2022 02:21am
Pretty funny last two comments, really highlights the dishonesty necessary to support the pro-Ukraine side of things.

It's exactly like those Blue State Red State maps that don't adjust for population.
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Sep 22 2022 03:26am
Reported on the Irish state broadcaster channel:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the United Nations meeting in New York that Ukraine wanted "just punishment" for crimes Russia has committed against his nation. In a unique recorded address to the UN General Assembly, he set out Ukraine's five-point plan for a durable peace. Only seven countries had voted against allowing him to deliver his address by video - Belarus, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, Nicaragua and Russia. Normally leaders must turn up in person to address the General Assembly.

President Zelensky said his five non-negotiable conditions for peace included punishment for Russian aggression, restoration of Ukraine's security, territorial integrity and security guarantees. He repeatedly stressed that he wanted Russia punished - punished for aggression, for violation of borders and territorial integrity, and for crimes against civilians. He said punishment, including economic sanctions, must stay in place until the internationally recognised border between Ukraine and Russia is restored.

"A crime has been committed against Ukraine. And we demand just punishment. "The crime was committed against our state borders. The crime was committed against the lives of our people. The crime was committed against the dignity of our women and men. The crime was committed against the values that make you and me a community of the United Nations. "Ukraine demands punishment for trying to steal our territory, punishment for the murders of thousands of people, punishment for tortures and humiliations of women and men. "Punishment for that catastrophic turbulence that Russia provoked with its illegal war. And not only for us, Ukrainians, but for the whole world."
He said his government is ready for real peace talks - but would not accept Ukrainian neutrality as a price of peace.

He also demanded reparations from Russia for the damage it had caused to Ukraine, and insisted that Russian assets be used to pay for the repairs to Ukraine's physical infrastructure. Ukraine could win back all its territory by military means, he said, and called for other nations to supply Ukraine with all the weapons and intelligence it needed to win the war. He said the fact that 101 nations voted in favour of him appearing at the General Assembly by video link – compared with just seven who voted against - showed that the cause of Ukraine enjoyed widespread support.

Many delegations gave Mr Zelensky a standing ovation after his speech. The Russian delegation remained seated. Ukraine and its Western allies have accused Russian forces of war crimes in different parts of the country they have occupied. Russia denies the allegations and says it does not target civilians. EU Foreign Ministers were called into an emergency meeting in New York by the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell. Amidst talk of new sanctions on Russia in response to its mobilisation of army reserves and the calling of referendums in occupied parts of Ukraine, the EU wants to ensure member state minsters offer a coordinated message for the rest of the week at the UK.

Later today the UN Security Council will hold a special debate on the situation in Ukraine. In an unusual move it will be attended by the foreign ministers of 14 of the 15 member states, including Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney. It will be chaired by French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and will also hear from Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Mr Coveney told RTÉ News he expects the debate to be "robust, abrasive and blunt".

Meanwhile, Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US and the UK's Permanent Representative to the EU, said Vladimir Putin's announcement is a sign of "failure", "was never the plan" and shows how badly Russia is faring in this war. Mr Putin's hints about turning to tactical nuclear weapons are "sinister and deeply concerning", he said, adding: "We need the strongest possible messages both in public and private channels to the Russians of how profoundly grave the consequences would be to do this."

-------------

i.e. both sides are basically doubling down here. obviously all this can be considered as further escalation, and at this point I think we have to serious consider/accept that we are edging closer to the use of non conventional weapons by russia. reason: neither side relenting, neither side compromising, poles apart in position, and current position ever worsening for russia.

This post was edited by ferdia on Sep 22 2022 03:32am
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Sep 22 2022 03:36am
Quote (ferdia @ 22 Sep 2022 17:26)
Reported on the Irish state broadcaster channel:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the United Nations meeting in New York that Ukraine wanted "just punishment" for crimes Russia has committed against his nation. In a unique recorded address to the UN General Assembly, he set out Ukraine's five-point plan for a durable peace. Only seven countries had voted against allowing him to deliver his address by video - Belarus, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, Nicaragua and Russia. Normally leaders must turn up in person to address the General Assembly.

President Zelensky said his five non-negotiable conditions for peace included punishment for Russian aggression, restoration of Ukraine's security, territorial integrity and security guarantees. He repeatedly stressed that he wanted Russia punished - punished for aggression, for violation of borders and territorial integrity, and for crimes against civilians. He said punishment, including economic sanctions, must stay in place until the internationally recognised border between Ukraine and Russia is restored.

"A crime has been committed against Ukraine. And we demand just punishment. "The crime was committed against our state borders. The crime was committed against the lives of our people. The crime was committed against the dignity of our women and men. The crime was committed against the values that make you and me a community of the United Nations. "Ukraine demands punishment for trying to steal our territory, punishment for the murders of thousands of people, punishment for tortures and humiliations of women and men. "Punishment for that catastrophic turbulence that Russia provoked with its illegal war. And not only for us, Ukrainians, but for the whole world."
He said his government is ready for real peace talks - but would not accept Ukrainian neutrality as a price of peace.

He also demanded reparations from Russia for the damage it had caused to Ukraine, and insisted that Russian assets be used to pay for the repairs to Ukraine's physical infrastructure. Ukraine could win back all its territory by military means, he said, and called for other nations to supply Ukraine with all the weapons and intelligence it needed to win the war. He said the fact that 101 nations voted in favour of him appearing at the General Assembly by video link – compared with just seven who voted against - showed that the cause of Ukraine enjoyed widespread support.

Many delegations gave Mr Zelensky a standing ovation after his speech. The Russian delegation remained seated. Ukraine and its Western allies have accused Russian forces of war crimes in different parts of the country they have occupied. Russia denies the allegations and says it does not target civilians. EU Foreign Ministers were called into an emergency meeting in New York by the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell. Amidst talk of new sanctions on Russia in response to its mobilisation of army reserves and the calling of referendums in occupied parts of Ukraine, the EU wants to ensure member state minsters offer a coordinated message for the rest of the week at the UK.

Later today the UN Security Council will hold a special debate on the situation in Ukraine. In an unusual move it will be attended by the foreign ministers of 14 of the 15 member states, including Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney. It will be chaired by French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and will also hear from Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Mr Coveney told RTÉ News he expects the debate to be "robust, abrasive and blunt".

Meanwhile, Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US and the UK's Permanent Representative to the EU, said Vladimir Putin's announcement is a sign of "failure", "was never the plan" and shows how badly Russia is faring in this war. Mr Putin's hints about turning to tactical nuclear weapons are "sinister and deeply concerning", he said, adding: "We need the strongest possible messages both in public and private channels to the Russians of how profoundly grave the consequences would be to do this."

-------------

i.e. both sides are basically doubling down here. obviously all this can be considered as further escalation, and at this point I think we have to serious consider/accept that we are edging closer to the use of non conventional weapons by russia. reason: neither side relenting, neither side compromising, poles apart in position, and current position ever worsening for russia.


Tactical Nukes incoming.
Non strategic ones.

And when a few are being dropped. China and India might come in to play the peace negotiator.
Just my two cents worth.
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Sep 22 2022 03:38am
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Sep 21 2022 09:52pm)
IMO there won't be any successful negotiations because Ukraine will not be allowed to accept the only deal Russia will offer: the guaranteed independence of or annexation into Russia of the Russian-majority regions of Ukraine. The idea that all this results in a return to Minsk is absurdist humour, at this point.

Also, even if Ukraine wanted to accept that deal and even if NATO allowed them to accept that deal, I suspect Russia probably isn't too keen on it. Hopefully they've learned their lessons here and see that America is systematically/structurally/procedurally unable to make and be bound by agreements.

As to the death toll, I suspect you probably don't believe this but it seems as if Russia is inflicting somewhere between 7:1 and 10:1 casualties on the Ukrainians. They fire far more artillery and rockets, they have superior interception (even for those precious HIMARS) and air superiority. This war dragging on certainly favours Russia when looking at attrition.


BWAHAHAHAHAHA
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Sep 22 2022 03:55am
it is frankly impossible to tell the loses on each side noting there is real propaganda war in this regard. each side will say the other side last lost more people. ill have a look and see what the internet says :)

This post was edited by ferdia on Sep 22 2022 03:56am
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Sep 22 2022 04:01am
Quote (ferdia @ Sep 22 2022 04:55am)
it is frankly impossible to tell the loses on each side noting there is real propaganda war in this regard. each side will say the other side last lost more people. ill have a look and see what the internet says :)


Most of the war, Ukraine has been on the defensive, fighting from covered and fortified positions. Only in the last month has real offensives been going which would turn around casualty rates. The notion that Russia has inflicted 7-10:1 ratio casualties is preposterous.
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Sep 22 2022 04:07am
Found a good article here re: estimates of casualties https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/08/16/how-many-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-in-ukraine-what-we-know-how-we-know-it-and-what-it-really-means/

I am not going to throw out the numbers that article stated noting its pretty vague. The safest response to my mind would be: 25,000-50,000 dead, split between each side (i did not say split evenly, i simply didnt reference the ratio) and probably 3 or 4 times that number injured.

does that seem right ?

This post was edited by ferdia on Sep 22 2022 04:15am
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Sep 22 2022 04:13am
Quote (ferdia @ Sep 22 2022 05:07am)
Found a good article here re: estimates of casualties https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/08/16/how-many-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-in-ukraine-what-we-know-how-we-know-it-and-what-it-really-means/

I am not going to throw out the numbers that article stated noting its pretty vague. The safest response to my mind would be: 25,000-50,000 dead, split between each side (i did not say split evenly, i simply didnt reference the ration) and probably 3 or 4 times that number injured.

^santana does that seem right ?


Generally, yes. Roughly 2-3 injured per kill is normal in combat. I think Russia's latest "official" number was between 5-6,000 KIA, and at one point, Zelenskyy admitted to something akin to 100 KIA/day. If we spread those numbers out over some 200 days of war, Ukraine might have 20,000 KIA. Ukraine's number is still understated if you ask me. Russia's is ridiculously dishonest. I don't expect them to be honest however, they're fighting a war. But anyone who takes their numbers at face value deserve to be lied to.
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Sep 22 2022 05:25am
Quote (Santara @ Sep 22 2022 06:13am)
Generally, yes. Roughly 2-3 injured per kill is normal in combat. I think Russia's latest "official" number was between 5-6,000 KIA, and at one point, Zelenskyy admitted to something akin to 100 KIA/day. If we spread those numbers out over some 200 days of war, Ukraine might have 20,000 KIA. Ukraine's number is still understated if you ask me. Russia's is ridiculously dishonest. I don't expect them to be honest however, they're fighting a war. But anyone who takes their numbers at face value deserve to be lied to.


That 5k number is masking true losses on Russia's side because the bulk of the forces doing war on their side are dnpr/lnpr conscripts and contract fighters like wagner. So those losses wouldn't be getting counted towards official military losses.

On Ukraine's side, I don't think the ratio is that high but 3:1 or 2:1 is realistic. One factor that you're ignoring is the fact that this is an artillery war which Russia has vast superiority and Ukrainian forces on the front repeatedly have said that they get shelled at much higher rates versus what they fire. You don't have to be a genius to deduce the side that get's shelled by artillery rounds more will have more casualties.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Sep 22 2022 05:26am
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Sep 22 2022 07:07am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 22 2022 02:25pm)
That 5k number is masking true losses on Russia's side because the bulk of the forces doing war on their side are dnpr/lnpr conscripts and contract fighters like wagner. So those losses wouldn't be getting counted towards official military losses.

On Ukraine's side, I don't think the ratio is that high but 3:1 or 2:1 is realistic. One factor that you're ignoring is the fact that this is an artillery war which Russia has vast superiority and Ukrainian forces on the front repeatedly have said that they get shelled at much higher rates versus what they fire. You don't have to be a genius to deduce the side that get's shelled by artillery rounds more will have more casualties.


Russian army deaths are prob like 10k, dnpr/lnpr/wagner is prob 10k+ also. Total around 20k deaths.

And ur right about artillery war vastly being russian sided. But you forget first months were devastating for rus army when they just pushed with tank collums, and also they are the ones who have been on the offensive for the most of the war so far. Usually the one who attacks suffers higher losses.

I would assume ratio being around 1.5-2:1 in favour of russians. But this will change, this will turn into a multiyear bloodbath where russian soldier density will increase so that the kharkov debacle isn't repeated whilst russian artillery pounds ratios into the 3:1 or even 4:1 over time.

We are still in the opening acts of the war. I have been saying this since day 1, this will be a long and incredibly bloody war.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Sep 22 2022 07:09am
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