Quote (chopstickz777 @ 21 Sep 2022 19:46)

Right now the battle is focused 100% on Donetsk oblast. And yes, it is going slowly because Ukraine had spent the past 8 years creating massive fortifications in these areas, and secondly because Russia committed minimal manpower to the operation (something which is now changing.) And they committed even less manpower for assaulting.

Of course, you ignore other aspects of what's happening, you ignore the fact that Russia still controls 15% of Ukrainian territory stretched out across a 1,000 km front line. That is a lot of ground and it includes several large cities, including Kherson. You're actually wrong about them retreating there.

The casualty rate for the Ukrainian army is truly horrific. They have suffered 100k casualties and that is not even counting the terro defense, SBU or mercenaries, all of which have high losses. All of Ukraine's original military equipment has been destroyed - they are fighting now with 100% western-provided equipment. But how long can they keep that up? It is well known that western military stocks are starting to run out of stuff they can freely give to Ukraine. Meanwhile Russia has only suffered 6k dead, not counting DPR/LPR or Wagner.

Russia may not be capturing ground quickly, but what they are doing is inflicting some 10-15x the amount of casualties on their enemy compared to what they are taking in return. One thing is going to happen here, either Ukraine will run out of manpower or Russia will run out of bombs and missiles. Which do you think is more likely?

I should add, it doesn't matter to Russia if it takes another year or if it takes another 5 years to wrap this up. They are taking it slow because they want minimal casualties, both on their side and among the civilian population. Make no mistake, they could do mass carpet bombing and take out all the electricity in Ukraine or hell, even use tactical nukes and wrap this operation up in no time. But they simply don't wanna do that because it would cause mass death and suffering. Russia wants to accomplish their goals but without taking huge casualties and without utterly annihilating all the civilians in Ukraine. It's a difficult position to be in to be sure but I believe they will pull it off eventually.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 21 2022 05:12pm)

That's actually what I expect. Some more offense by Ukraine around Kherson, then the frontline freezing during winter. It might be unrealistic, but I still hope both sides return to the negotiating table during that time and realize that going back to the status quo ante is more beneficial than either side trying to brute force its way to further territorial gains, which would come at a huge death toll and with devastated infrastructure.

Quote (kusotarre1 @ Sep 22 2022 05:52am)

IMO there won't be any successful negotiations because Ukraine will not be allowed to accept the only deal Russia will offer: the guaranteed independence of or annexation into Russia of the Russian-majority regions of Ukraine. The idea that all this results in a return to Minsk is absurdist humour, at this point.

Also, even if Ukraine wanted to accept that deal and even if NATO allowed them to accept that deal, I suspect Russia probably isn't too keen on it. Hopefully they've learned their lessons here and see that America is systematically/structurally/procedurally unable to make and be bound by agreements.

As to the death toll, I suspect you probably don't believe this but it seems as if Russia is inflicting somewhere between 7:1 and 10:1 casualties on the Ukrainians. They fire far more artillery and rockets, they have superior interception (even for those precious HIMARS) and air superiority. This war dragging on certainly favours Russia when looking at attrition.

Quote (Cascadian @ Sep 21 2022 08:47pm)

You've been wrong every stretch of the way, why are you even still here trying to preach your talking points.

Quote (chopstickz777 @ Sep 22 2022 05:55am)

Lol that's rich coming from you. When have you ever been right about anything again?

Quote (Palasan @ Sep 21 2022 07:54pm)

Can you repeat that but wearing your hat please

https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.2813355610.2444/ssrco,baseball_cap,product,000000:44f0b734a5,front_three_quarter,wide_portrait,750x1000-bg,f8f8f8.jpg

Quote (kusotarre1 @ 22 Sep 2022 04:52)

IMO there won't be any successful negotiations because Ukraine will not be allowed to accept the only deal Russia will offer: the guaranteed independence of or annexation into Russia of the Russian-majority regions of Ukraine. The idea that all this results in a return to Minsk is absurdist humour, at this point.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 22 2022 02:58am)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0c/UaFirstNationality2001-English.png
So you're saying Russia will offer to cede almost all the territory it currently occupies? ^_^