Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 21 2022 05:28pm)
You and your fellow travellers have been saying that Russia will inevitably win this war for almost 7 months now. In reality, they have - in virtually every theater of this war - been unable to make progress after the initial two weeks. And been on the retreat in many crucial places like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Izjum and Kherson.
The only noteworthy gains Russia made since the first two weeks are two cities (Mariupol and Sievordonetsk/Lyssitchansk) that they had to bomb into the fucking ground before being able to take over their smoldering ruins...
Right now the battle is focused 100% on Donetsk oblast. And yes, it is going slowly because Ukraine had spent the past 8 years creating massive fortifications in these areas, and secondly because Russia committed minimal manpower to the operation (something which is now changing.) And they committed even less manpower for assaulting.
Of course, you ignore other aspects of what's happening, you ignore the fact that Russia still controls 15% of Ukrainian territory stretched out across a 1,000 km front line. That is a lot of ground and it includes several large cities, including Kherson. You're actually wrong about them retreating there.
The casualty rate for the Ukrainian army is truly horrific. They have suffered 100k casualties and that is not even counting the terro defense, SBU or mercenaries, all of which have high losses. All of Ukraine's original military equipment has been destroyed - they are fighting now with 100% western-provided equipment. But how long can they keep that up? It is well known that western military stocks are starting to run out of stuff they can freely give to Ukraine. Meanwhile Russia has only suffered 6k dead, not counting DPR/LPR or Wagner.
Russia may not be capturing ground quickly, but what they are doing is inflicting some 10-15x the amount of casualties on their enemy compared to what they are taking in return. One thing is going to happen here, either Ukraine will run out of manpower or Russia will run out of bombs and missiles. Which do you think is more likely?
I should add, it doesn't matter to Russia if it takes another year or if it takes another 5 years to wrap this up. They are taking it slow because they want minimal casualties, both on their side and among the civilian population. Make no mistake, they could do mass carpet bombing and take out all the electricity in Ukraine or hell, even use tactical nukes and wrap this operation up in no time. But they simply don't wanna do that because it would cause mass death and suffering. Russia wants to accomplish their goals but without taking huge casualties and without utterly annihilating all the civilians in Ukraine. It's a difficult position to be in to be sure but I believe they will pull it off eventually.