A lot of the people here who are passionately arguing that Europe will be fine once they rework where their energy inputs come from don't seem to be able to apply the same sort of thinking to Russia's technological imports.

Obviously sanctions against Russia have caused big disruptions to a large number of industries, because a lot of the technology for these things came from the West and not the East. That will change in time and Russia will eventually rebuild all these affected industries. That's just an inevitability, since the sanctions are not being imposed by the majority of the world's countries with the most important one being, of course, China, which is itself pouring hundreds of billions into developing a lot of the same industries that Russia has now been locked out of - semiconductors, robotics, etc.

What also cannot be disputed is that this sanctions regime, so effective versus countries like Cuba and Venezuela, has simultaneously failed to cripple Russia and led to potentially catastrophic blowback particularly for Europe in the short term and also for American hegemonic institutions in the long term. It's not just the lack of energy inputs that is a problem, but we're seeing the potential end of the petrodollar cycle which has allowed America to have such latitude with monetary policy - how will America cope? We're seeing huge growth in trade taking place without using the dollar. We're seeing China (and others) dump their US treasuries, now at a 12 year low.

The West really blew their entire load with this invasion. Outright stealing assets not just of the Russian government but of individual Russians, SWIFT lockouts, etc. Westerners have problems imagining how other people think, so they don't consider that this has actually scared the shit out of countries who aren't even America's enemies, like the KSA, Mexico, Indonesia. They realize that if they cross Washington, they may be next, and so they'll work to insulate themselves.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Sep 8 2022 02:25pm

Uh...by what metric? The Russian troops in the region are trapped and they continue to destroy Russian fuel/ammo dumps. The counteroffensive there is going to take months to complete and may go into the winter. The winter will be interesting b/c the West is providing Ukraine with the necessary equipment and rations to continue fighting in the winter.

Ukraine needs to be careful when they advance in the East because you don't want to overextend your supply lines. It's a careful balance between catching the Russians off guard and falling into a trap.

https://archive.ph/Cpdxn

I really encourage people who still think Ukraine is winning anywhere to read this entire article, and try to make what's in it align with your beliefs about how the war is going.

If the "counteroffensive there is going to take months to complete", then the side firing 7-15 times as many shells and missiles, with air superiority and EW supremacy, is going to win.

Ukraine wins by merely surviving. The Russians are known for giving up and I don't see this being any different than the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. At some point, they'll decide that it's not worth it and withdraw. They've done that several times during this war already!

this makes no sense.

would ask if you could clarify who owns that website and which country it belongs to.

/upps double post.

This post was edited by ferdia on Sep 8 2022 02:58pm

What part doesn't make sense to you?

Inability to use foreign reserves drastically undercuts Russia's import/export balance, as well as their ability to manufacture. They're using cardboard for tank and body armor. They are scrounging dishwashers for circuit boards.
Russia is unable to deliver gas to other markets in appreciable quantities, meaning they sell to Europe or no one.
People aren't starving, so yeah. Not going to assert that there's no pain involved, but the world isn't ending.

It's definitely you.

Besides being delusional, it's pretty wild to post about how Ukraine is surviving when I just linked you an article saying that Ukraine is losing 5 times as many men as the Russians are, and where 50% of entire platoons are sent to the hospital or morgue after being subjected to constant 24/7 mortar fire.

Like, I get that to you all these deaths are just someone else's problem while you do the important work of Posting Online, but jeez.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Sep 8 2022 03:02pm

Archive.ph? I dunno. If you mean the snapshot in there, it's a Washington Post article, mouthpiece for disgusting American billionaire Jeff Bezos.