The reality is that Ukraine is a torn and polarized country. The western parts of the country (largely rural and sparsely populated) have historically and culturally belonged to Europe, the eastern parts (Donbass, very densely populated and industrial) to Russia. The middle part of the country, Kiev and Dnjepropetrovsk, lean to the West. Going by population, the split in terms of leaning towards the West/Russia among the Ukrainian people is somewhere between 65:35 and 50:50. The real situation on the ground is a lot more complicated and murky than any of us armchair foreign policy experts can grasp.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 25 2019 04:21pm

Armchair foreign policy experts rarely talk to normal people. I was in western Ukraine over the summer and it's incredible to see how the population is really not as polarized to one side or the other. Sure, most Ukrainians have a perspective on this but most that i talked to just lament the circumstances, life goes on. My wife's aunt who lives in western Ukraine who's seen her whole business collapse because of this conflict didn't really have negative feelings towards the Russians nor does she view the Russians as bad or invaders or whatever. I was actually a little pushy to see where they stand on this and it was incredible how neutral they were.

Sounds like a population numbed to the idea of political choice. Hmmm, wonder how that happened.

Void, I respect that you have been in the country and have gotten the pulse of some people, but ultimately, like any country, it's dependent on the region. A foreigner who visits Alabama and Tennessee will get an entirely different impression of American politics than someone who visits New York and DC.

As far as my "Western centric" viewpoints, I'm not sure why that's a bad thing. Western countries are more democratic, free, and prosperous. I'm not a moral or cultural relativist, so I consider those values better than the alternative. Ukraine aligning with those values is better for their country.

If the media criticized Trump bit didnt lie I wouldnt care. Unfortunately we all know that isnt the case

https://www.polgeonow.com/2014/03/ukraine-divisions-election-language.html

Elections have been split in these lines for awhile, very much along linguistic lines.

You will struggle to find an election that did not play out like this, the ethnic Ukrainians who do not wish to be a vassal state, and ethnic Russians. Imagine if the American North and South spoke different languages, and the South was still trying to be loyal to England, and shot down a Dutch plane while invading West Virginia.

This post was edited by Skinned on Nov 25 2019 08:26pm

A beautiful illustration, and yes, I'm aware of these maps. Doesnt contradict what I was saying.

These regional trends along the language boundary (which is also a proxy for a cultural boundary) are the macro trend of Ukrainian politics, not the lone determining factor. There are also conflicting interest groups, pro-russian and pro-western oligarchs, pro-tradition and pro-reform people and so on. For example, this map/these regional divisions cant help explain why the pro-western Porochenko was replaced by the pro-western Zelensky. So as I said, the (north)west-middle-(south)east division is the prime (but not all-encompassing) explanatory variable, but the situation on the ground is even more complicated than that.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 25 2019 08:51pm

This comparison doesnt hold up. England is separated by an ocean from the Southern United States, and the Northern United States are not allied with an infinitely stronger party which has spent the last 3 decades encircling England with military bases.

Your fictional setting fails to capture the moral ambiguity of the situation in Ukraine. Yes, the Russians are the worse side, but we're far removed from an unambiguous situation where the Russian side is 100% bad and the Western side is 100% good.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 25 2019 08:59pm

I can imagine that. I live in California, where life is quite often split along linguistic lines.

One side shot down a civilian plane and is annexing other countries.

How has appeasement worked in the past?

None of this would have happened if the West hadnt pushed for Ukraine to join the EU and, more importantly, the NATO. That Russia would never allow a neighboring country as large as Ukraine to join the NATO is a prediction that even elementary school kids could have made.

Just imagine for a second that Mexico would contemplate joining a tight military alliance with China. How many hours do you think it would take before SEALs storm the Mexican presidential palace?