Seems like don't know what you're talking about. This here chart will clear things up for you

The asymmetry exists primarily with regard to the timescale. Russia's attacks in the trade war have their greatest effect upfront (this year plus this winter), but this effect will fizzle out over time. The Western sanctions have their greatest effect in the intermediate future, when Russia can't replace lots of key technology and will increasingly lose revenue from oil and gas sales. It would have been better for everyone involved if our braindead leaders had kept the trade war more narrow and, in particular, left energy out of it. But we are where we are, there is significant path dependency involved and there is no realistic way for going back in the near future.

What might still go wrong is if European elites insist that the bottom 90% of society shoulder the bulk of the economic burden of the war. To keep the social peace and cohesion in Europe, wide-ranging government support to the working and middle classes will imho be necessary, and to finance those, taxes on corporations or the rich will probably have to be raised. If European leaders think their low income citizens will be keen to freeze for Ukraine, or that their middle class is willing to sink into poverty, they are imho mistaken.

So far the imbalance has clearly worked in favor of Russia. Now maybe it could change long term, but Russia has access to world economies to both buy its exports and import that tech. The attempts to isolate Russia failed.

The other issue is Russia's ability to withstand pain compared to the EU. Those freezing euros have a voice, while Russia has long trod over its masses. They can and have weathered far worse. If this is a double edged sword that hurts more for the less resilient side, the outcome is clear

Has the imbalance really worked in favor of Russia? So far, their inflation has been higher than ours and their GDP has taken the bigger hit. And while Russia might not be as isolated as the West had hoped for, there have been multiple reports in recent months that Russia seeks to expand the economic cooperation with North Korea an the Taliban - not exactly signs of a thriving country with lots of great options...


Which goes back to the point from my previous post: if this is supposed to work, the brunt must be shouldered by all of society, it cannot fall exclusively on the poor and the lower middle class. The economic pain can definitely be alleviated, it's possible - but I'm not sure if Europe's useless, self-absorbed elites are smart enough to realize this and act accordingly before there are mass protests on the streets.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 4 2022 03:39am

The euros can and will eventually find other sources but those will be much more expensive. It cost 6.5x than previously to fill gas storage this year. That figure will go down in subsequent years but never anywhere near to how cheap it was when Europe had a good relationship with Russia. So it’s not just a this winter problem it’s a problem for at least several years.

Once war fatigue sets in, and it already has, the average euro family will care more about having to pay an outrageous electricity/gas bill rather than the war. That’s why you’re seeing 70k people take to the streets in Prague asking for the govt to be tossed and wanting neutrality in the war.

Imo the Russian pleb has a much higher tolerance for pain versus European politicians. This is ultimately Putins long term play here.


Jim Bianco who’s a regular on Bloomberg as an analyst has a good thread on this on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1566180431984205824?s=21&t=TUXvYECkC2YO2fmF8c_hSA

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Sep 4 2022 05:24am

Russia firing from Nuclear Plant, still the armchair basement dwelling professor squad here will continue ignoring the elephant in the room and violations of all possible rules and laws by the aggressor dictatorship leading illegal invasion and point out that "Ukraine shells Nuclear Plant all the time" , despite only evidence of Ukrainian shelling is quite some distance away from Nuclear Plant in the suburbs.

Russia hitting grain reserve block, very strategic military target, this evening 50-100 russian orcs will be evaporated for this, sum more heart attacks in rural russian coming soon when news comes through..

Russian pleb bathing in greatness and living in conditions that represent highest gas/oil prices in a long time. Awaiting decisive victory some idiots here predict, that will change his entire life upside down.

Your level of engagement in this thread is kind of repulsive. Would a pro-Russian poster posting Ukrainian poor people or pictures of the dead accomplish anything? Is it value adding to any discussion? It just shows how ugly you are on the inside. I get it, it's personal for you, but pissing on graves or making fun of some poor alcoholic living in squalor accomplishes nothing.

\_/

Sad part is its not some alcoholic, its how 40% of people live in Russia and the further you go east/north the worse it gets. Ukrainian homeless look like midde class Russians, its the mentality