I wouldn't be too sure about Ukraine retaking anything. They transition from a comfotable defensive position into offensive one because they have to disrupt. It'll cost them lots of lives and resources. Then another attack launched by Russian is going to be inevitable. We'll see how it'll turn out. I hope they'll push Russians back and force negotiations but I'll believe when I see them do that first. Winter in those areas is very harsh. Whatever they plan they should hurry up before the first snow.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Sep 3 2022 03:19am

Ukraine relies on generating outrage and hope in order to keep getting weapons. They know that Western media will never call them on their bullshit, so they're free to accuse Russia of bombing themselves at a nuclear power plant and everyone will just dutifully report it while saying that the Ukrainians need more weapons to stop the shelling that the Ukrainians definitely aren't doing.



From what I've been reading, the Ukrainian advances are going extremely poorly. The Russians pulled back, the Ukrainians came forward into that void out of their defensive positions and are being quite soundly thrashed. This may (or may not) lead to a degradation of their ability to hold the current line. If the Russians are able to get past the current line, OTOH, that's really it as far as defensible terrain goes. The rest of the country is relatively flat and gives much less advantage to defense.

As for economic damages, it's clear that the West is in a much more precarious position than the Russians. Sanctions are hurting things in Russia like semiconductor acquisition, whereas in Europe they are hurting the ability to not have grandma freeze to death in winter. Russia is as close as you can get to an economic autarky, they can go for years or decades like this without truly degraded social life.

And I think at this point the Russians have been very clear they aren't in the mood for diplomacy with Ukraine, any longer. They see it's not capable of independence from the West in it's current state, and they know the West will always seek to threaten Russian security. They're in it for a decisive victory with an imposed peace, probably.

tend to agree with most of that.

Welcome back, chopstickz!

i think he writes more refined then chopstickz ? dunno.

Putin giving up Armenia/Syria to Endorgan so he attempts to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table is hilarious.
All that middle east crusading for nothing now.

Tactics had to be refined, got 10%'d on main account so now more careful.

Still with delusions of decisive victories though
Decisive victory didn't happen in March like he promised, then didn't happen in April/May, and now russian orcs advance came to a complete stop. Still haven't even taken all of Donetsk Oblast.

tbh i ignored almost all of his posts. i dont mind hearing a russian view but some of his stuff was out there.

This post was edited by ferdia on Sep 3 2022 12:54pm

I'm not chopstickz, and I wasn't here for the start of this war.

Making strong predictions is pretty dumb, because how this war is concluded (how quickly, how decisively) is contingent on how Russia acts. So far, they've been careful to avoid civilian casualties, which is evidenced by the fact that Ukrainians still have power, running water, sewage, bridges, etc. If changes happen to the Russian calculus in this regard, the direct combat portion of this war could resolve quickly. With the slow approach, it will be a grind until the Ukrainian lines collapse, and that can always be further away than it seems.

Bad predictions came from all sides, and still do. Russia was supposed to run out of missiles in March, then April, then May, then June, etc. Belarus was supposed to invade. Russia was supposed to start a draft. Ukraine was supposed to 'retake' Crimea in May.

I think once the situation is such that the Ukrainians are no longer able to bomb the residents of Donetsk, Russia will be somewhat happy to spend an entire winter slowly killing every fighting-age Ukrainian (which apparently includes sexagenarians, now) that the West goads Ukraine into sacrificing. And people like Lvivz will be happy to spend that time cheering this strategy on this forum, posting pictures of the occasional anecdote of questionable origin to buoy his own spirits.

What matters to me isn't so much that Russia wins, but that NATO loses. The end of Western military and economic hegemony is going to be a godsend for the bulk of humanity that has been stuck under it's boot for the past two centuries.

Didn't read 90% of your basement fart drivel but if NATO would get involved there would be 2 outcomes:

1) Nuclear War
2) russians getting its ass kicked in so hard, the remains of their grandmothers would rise up and march 20 miles.

At the moment russia is not even the top side in Ukraine, and Ukraine is fighting with 5% of resources russia has