Quote (Goomshill @ 21 Aug 2022 12:32)

I think its most likely pro-Ukraine Russian opposition and I'd really like to believe that to be the case, or else Ukrainian infiltrators. In the absence of any reason to believe a deeper conspiracy or state action, simplest reason is the most likely. They had plenty of reason to hate Dugin for political reasons. But god forbid this actually links back to western intelligence, be it EU or US. That would a real shit scenario, an act of war assassinating (the family of) a guy who's basically a political scholar and intellectual, not a politician and barely any media presence. Its still a bit of an open debate how much Putin followed Dugin's (literal) playbook, and how much was improvisation and his own streak. I mean, Dugin shared more in common with Robert Heinlein's grand idea of a totaliarian fascism divorced from racism and chauvinism, whereas Putin was dealing with political realities of a kleptocracy.
I struggle to come up with a parallel for what this would be like in America. Like if an Antifa gunman tried to assassinate Alan Dershowitz?

we'll have to wait and see what Putin does now I guess. He could blame it on the west even if it wasn't the west.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 21 2022 01:43pm)

Imho, he will definitely blame it on Ukraine because that's the most advantageous spin for his propaganda. An underworld assassination or a bloody struggle for power within his hierarchy would obviously be bad PR for Putin, so if that was the case, he's never admit it. Likewise, I doubt that he'll blame it on Western intelligence because that would amount to admitting weakness - if the CIA or MI6 can blow up the family of one of his top advisors, deep in the heart of Russia's capital, they could reach anyone who's not under massive security protocol 24/7.

Quote (Lvivz @ 21 Aug 2022 12:55)

And that Ukraine has the ability to blow up his advisors deep in the heart of Russian capital is not admitting weakness? I think Putin will just ignore it and not comment on that publicly, he rarely if ever mentioned Dugin.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 21 2022 02:02pm)

There are millions of Ukrainians or people of Ukrainian descent living in Russia. If one of them one day randomly decides to blow up Dugin, there's not a lot the Russian government can do about it. CIA or MI6 agents doing the same would be a much bigger counterintelligence failure.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 21 2022 05:43am)

Imho, he will definitely blame it on Ukraine because that's the most advantageous spin for his propaganda. An underworld assassination or a bloody struggle for power within his hierarchy would obviously be bad PR for Putin, so if that was the case, he'd never admit it. Likewise, I doubt that he'll blame it on Western intelligence because that would amount to admitting weakness - if the CIA or MI6 can blow up the family of one of his top advisors, deep in the heart of Russia's capital, they could reach anyone who's not under massive security protocol 24/7.

Quote (Ironfister @ Aug 21 2022 05:43pm)

It is worth noting that after months of war in Ukraine, the Russian Kremlin elite split into two groups: "hawks" and "peace party", according to reports from the independent Russian portal Meduza. The "hawks" (such as Dugin) want war until they win by joining the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, and in the future joining them with the Transnistria. This is a plan to create a region called Novorossiya.

The second group wants, as the name suggests, to reach an agreement with the West and Ukraine to end this war, which is a series of defeats for Russia. But ending the war this way means that the hawk crew must be neutralized in the apparatus of power. Perhaps we will face a wave of random accidents that will affect Kremlin officials. It is worth keeping your fingers crossed for Russia to plunge itself into internal struggles.

Quote (ferdia @ 21 Aug 2022 19:52)

two things to this:

1. the doves (peace party) does not want to take land from ukraine or ? i am a bit lost on what they would consider "acceptable" (i.e. i dont think that a complete withdrawal and no movement on pre-existing boarders is part of their agenda, but feel free to educate me).
2. speaking from my own countries historical viewpoint, a wave of "accidents" sounds like a credible plan (to destabilise russia, or to piss Vladimir off). of course the ones that will suffer the most during all of that will be the common people (ukrainian and/or russian).

Quote (Goomshill @ Aug 21 2022 03:41pm)

I mean, Putin blamed the west for meddling in his 2011 election, and we were, which was a degree of admitting weakness.
I don't think there was any practical purpose to an assassination of Dugin, he held no power and never did, he's purely an intellectual, so it doesn't make much sense as an internal power struggle or palace intrigue. But it does make sense as a geopolitical vengeance by Ukrainians or their sympathizers in Russia, since Dugin was one of the most outspoken voices about annexing Ukraine since before Putin was even in power, and in fact was critical of Putin for failing to act against Ukraine sooner. Same with the Russian opposition in general, even if they weren't aligned with Ukraine, as Dugin was the architect of the neo-fascist Russian culture and suppression of the opposition, and this assassination comes conspicuously 2 years to the day after Navalny was poisoned. Which I doubt is a coincidence, even if it was Ukrainians.