Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 4 2022 05:12pm)
That's actually not true. For Europe/NATO/the global geopolitical order, it makes one hell of a difference if Russia takes Ukraine easily in 2-4 months (scenario if there had been no Western support for Ukraine) while sustaining few losses, or if they eventually take it after 2 years of grinding which leaves their military and economy thoroughly depleted, to the point that they'll not be able to wage further wars of aggression for a long time. So even in case that Russia eventually "wins" this war by capturing all of Ukraine - which is far from a given!!! - the West still has a vested interest in making it as difficult and costly as possible.
All I was saying in my previous post is that it was asinine to engage in energy embargos which would predictably inflict greater damage on ourselves than Russia. I'm actually supportive of a narrow embargo on high-tech products, but it was always foolish to think that no longer selling McDonalds and Ikea in Russia would make any difference, or that weaponizing Western-controlled institutions like SWIFT would help bring neutral countries in Asia and Africa to our side.
1: I was talking from the prespective of ukraine. For america/nato the more russians die the better. And they shouldn't get odessa. This is all they care about, any number of dead ukranians is irrelevant.
2:All sanctions are counterproductive. Ban medical stuff to russia -> india gets market share. Ban air industry -> russia develop theirs/gets more from china etc
Ill give a fin-tech example. Not long ago all russians had visas/mastercard, after 2014 and sanctions russians made their own system and now 90%+ of russians use MIR cards which are also circulating in many more countries..
You can't sanction russia, it doesnt really work and long term only backfires.
This post was edited by ownyaah on Aug 4 2022 09:51am