Quote (ofthevoid @ 7 Mar 2022 21:51)

There's no such thing as clean wars. Literally all wars have war crimes. You think firing artillery always lands where you expect it to land? You think Dresden being flattened or Japan's Hiroshima and Nagasaki are war crimes? Maybe, but that's not the way it went down in history, because in an all out war those are nonsensical notions.

Quote (thesnipa @ 7 Mar 2022 21:55)

IF, and its a big IF, Putin calculated even close to the expenses this will cost Russia, then NATO expansion is an existential threat to him. but occam's razor tells me he didnt predict this western response, and is now all in with a mediocre hand with no choice but to wait out the rest of the cards. withdraw cant be done, he's gone too all in trying to paint this as toppling Hitler. he fucked up.

Quote (thundercock @ 7 Mar 2022 22:00)

For Ukraine, it's simply to survive and have a functioning government. As time goes on, I imagine that the objects are to keep as much land as possible. For Russia, I think it's a lot more complicated. It appears that they wanted to quickly decapitate the government in Kyiv via Blitzkrieg tactics. In addition, I think they want to form a land bridge between Russia and Crimea and take as much of the Ukrainian coastline as possible in hopes that Ukraine (should it survive) cede those lands. If they can make it to Moldova, even better because Russia could claim most of the Black Sea resources.

As for Kyiv, the Russians haven't encircled it yet and supplies are moving in and out. I would HOPE that they are preparing for a very long siege (similar to Sarajevo, Stalingrad, etc.) given that the West has military advisors on the ground helping the Ukrainians out. I wouldn't necessarily call it "impressive" either since the border between Kyiv and Belarus is less than 200 km. Surrounding it from the South would have been really impressive though IMO. Russia is going to have to create more stable supply lines if they are going to hold the territory and that's assuming insurgency levels remain low-ish. Occupying territory requires A LOT of troops and I don't doubt that Russia is capable of doing it. The question is if they have the political will to do it given that their economy got nuked and they've lost thousands of troops already.

Quote (thundercock @ Mar 7 2022 04:00pm)

For Ukraine, it's simply to survive and have a functioning government. As time goes on, I imagine that the objects are to keep as much land as possible. For Russia, I think it's a lot more complicated. It appears that they wanted to quickly decapitate the government in Kyiv via Blitzkrieg tactics. In addition, I think they want to form a land bridge between Russia and Crimea and take as much of the Ukrainian coastline as possible in hopes that Ukraine (should it survive) cede those lands. If they can make it to Moldova, even better because Russia could claim most of the Black Sea resources.

As for Kyiv, the Russians haven't encircled it yet and supplies are moving in and out. I would HOPE that they are preparing for a very long siege (similar to Sarajevo, Stalingrad, etc.) given that the West has military advisors on the ground helping the Ukrainians out. I wouldn't necessarily call it "impressive" either since the border between Kyiv and Belarus is less than 200 km. Surrounding it from the South would have been really impressive though IMO. Russia is going to have to create more stable supply lines if they are going to hold the territory and that's assuming insurgency levels remain low-ish. Occupying territory requires A LOT of troops and I don't doubt that Russia is capable of doing it. The question is if they have the political will to do it given that their economy got nuked and they've lost thousands of troops already.

Quote (ofthevoid @ 7 Mar 2022 22:13)

I hope the opposite happens in reality. The faster this ends the better. I don't care about Ukrainians or Russian capitulation, what I want is for this to be done as soon as possible.

Supply routes being available to me is an indication that they're really not balls deep about scorching everything. I don't think they are letting transport from in and out of the city because they can't stop it but rather they just aren't sending their cruise and ballistic missiles to completely cut off these cities. I still think deep down they want a country that's somewhat viable instead of a bombed out wasteland.

Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 7 2022 01:13pm)

I hope the opposite happens in reality. The faster this ends the better. I don't care about Ukrainians or Russian capitulation, what I want is for this to be done as soon as possible.

Supply routes being available to me is an indication that they're really not balls deep about scorching everything. I don't think they are letting transport from in and out of the city because they can't stop it but rather they just aren't sending their cruise and ballistic missiles to completely cut off these cities. I still think deep down they want a country that's somewhat viable instead of a bombed out wasteland.

Quote (thundercock @ Mar 7 2022 04:24pm)

I mean....if the Russians just leave, the war will end lol. Why should it be Ukrainians who give up and not Russia?

You can't just "bomb" cities either without establishing supply lines. Russia doesn't have enough missiles and Ukraine can shoot down Russian bombers and jets. This isn't Afghanistan...Ukraine has a lot of equipment that simply isn't available to the Russian military because the West has been giving it to them for years now. The Russian army has A LOT of artillery so you need to move that into position and that requires fuel.

Quote (dro94 @ 7 Mar 2022 22:29)

Bucha has fallen and Irpin is close to falling to the Russians. If they control Irpin and move their column in they'll be within striking distance of Kyiv. With artillery in range, apart from the obvious fact of the city being razed to the ground, the Ukrainian Army will be sitting ducks on the outskirts and have a much better chance of success retreating to the city centre with more cover and higher vantage points. But retreating also means getting your supply lines cut and taking a huge morale hit

In other news, the Ukrainians have captured a city 40km east of Kharkiv in a counterattack, which is pretty impressive given the fact they're under siege

Just a matter of time until Mariupol falls, with them being totally surrounded and running low on supplies. Then again, most of Ukraine's best fighters are in the Donetsk Oblast and they will fight to the death no doubt

Lots of counterattacks and ambushes against Russian forces on the route to Mykolaiv. As long as Mykolaiv holds, Ukraine's access to the black Sea will be protected, which is crucial for their economy

Lots of Russian planes were downed in Kharkiv Oblast over the weekend as a result of Russia using their airforce more

Overall, not a good weekend for Ukraine, primarily down to the lost ground north west of Kyiv which is so important

Quote (dro94 @ Mar 7 2022 01:29pm)

Bucha has fallen and Irpin is close to falling to the Russians. If they control Irpin and move their column in they'll be within striking distance of Kyiv. With artillery in range, apart from the obvious fact of the city being razed to the ground, the Ukrainian Army will be sitting ducks on the outskirts and have a much better chance of success retreating to the city centre with more cover and higher vantage points. But retreating also means getting your supply lines cut and taking a huge morale hit

In other news, the Ukrainians have captured a city 40km east of Kharkiv in a counterattack, which is pretty impressive given the fact they're under siege

Just a matter of time until Mariupol falls, with them being totally surrounded and running low on supplies. Then again, most of Ukraine's best fighters are in the Donetsk Oblast and they will fight to the death no doubt

Lots of counterattacks and ambushes against Russian forces on the route to Mykolaiv. As long as Mykolaiv holds, Ukraine's access to the black Sea will be protected, which is crucial for their economy

Lots of Russian planes were downed in Kharkiv Oblast over the weekend as a result of Russia using their airforce more

Overall, not a good weekend for Ukraine, primarily down to the lost ground north west of Kyiv which is so important

Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 7 2022 04:42pm)

Either or i don't care. The realist in me tells me that Russia won't just high tail it out of there without achieving at least some level of concession. You can by using the newer tech but again those are fairly crude methods. If they were raining down Kalibr missiles day and night with some nasty payloads, what would be left of those cities?

I agree as far as their Airforce not being fully deployed really. They're trying to be more careful about losing those considering NATO gave the Ukrainians some advanced anti-air weps.