Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 3 2022 08:58am)

A supply gap of 20% (if Putin completely cuts off the gas in winter) would still be catastrophic though. Particularly since industrial heartlands of Europe (Germany, Northern Italy) are particularly dependent on Russian gas. Someone should tell the Poles and Spanish what's gonna happen to their currency and EU funding if the German economy collapses.

In reality, European leaders have catastrophically mishandled the whole issue of sanctions and energy dependency on Russia. It was completely fucking braindead to signal to Putin that we're gonna wane off his oil and gas in 1-2 years - made it really easy for him to close the gas tap because he had far less to lose. He would have thought twice about this step if it would have meant risking to lose decades of future revenue instead of just 1-2 years. Similarly, it's completely insane that the German government still wants to shut down existing nuclear power plants this winter. Or that they didn't immediately start ramping up coal plants again so that less natural gas is used for power generation. Or that various European countries still didn't start to prepare fracking on their own territory while begging other countries for more fracking gas.

If you think the EU is doing well on energy, you are horribly mistaken. If you ask me, the way it was handled by European/Western leaders is the biggest policy and leadership failure in living memory.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 4 2022 06:44am)

Meanwhile, Russian troops are literally digging themselves in inside a nuclear power plant where Ukraine cannot attack them without risking to contaminate their own country...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62412429

Quote (Nibthebarb @ Aug 4 2022 06:03am)

On this we entirely agree.Pro or anti Putin, one must acknowledge reality, and have a viable plan B if you plan on opposing Russia.Only through unbridled hubris do Western leaders not realize this. The West honestly just needs to fall so the current crop of "leaders" can be wiped clean and replaced with sane adults.

Quote (ownyaah @ Aug 4 2022 03:39am)

1+ sensible views, but i would argue one needs a plan in the event of opposing any major political player, even regional if relevant.

It is a big gamble they made, they are betting they can win on the ground. If they don't win ukraine gains nothing from overtly opposing russia. They won't join nato, and they won't join EU. The only outcome is a destroyed country.

Quote (Santara @ Aug 4 2022 11:56am)

He's clearly referring to European nations that are dependent on Russian gas. What do you mean Ukraine "gains nothing from opposing Russia?" Ukraine retains sovereignty and continues as a state.

Quote (ownyaah @ 4 Aug 2022 18:01)

if they lose donbass, and kherson-zap area they are fked. If they lose odessa, they are completely and utterly fked beyond repair. All you have is a shell of it former self, extremely poor and landlocked, lost all their productive industries. Remember east-south ukraine is like 70% of the gdp. Concept of "pure" sovereignty doesn't exist when applied to geopolitics, sovereignty is to some extent limited, you don't choose your neighbors.

This concept of "freedomzzz", you americans have is completely contrieved. Do you think mexico can do whatever it wants? No it needs to do things that don't piss off their neighbors, especially US being a massive power that could fuck them 10x.

His statement is in response to russian gas but it fits all situations. The only scenario the harsh-anti russian stance makes sense is if they win the war on the ground and push russians out of essentially all areas.

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 4 Aug 2022 13:09)

waiting for China to do the same. maybe.. :bouncy:

Quote (Norlander @ 4 Aug 2022 18:44)

There will be millions of deaths and an instant global crysis. Why are you waiting for such things?

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 4 Aug 2022 13:53)

dunno...feels like sooner or later they are going to do something like that. kinda depressing actually.
China have been doing military exercise surrounding Taiwan today by the way.

Quote (Norlander @ 4 Aug 2022 19:14)

Yes, it's in the news and silly me confused DF-16 with DF-17. They look the same like all the Asians. Just kidding :)