Quote (Santara @ Aug 2 2022 12:12am)
Precision munitions are generally missiles, not rockets. I didn't even come close to implying Russia was running out of artillery ammo. I'm clearly talking about missiles, like the Iskandr & Kh101, and older missiles originally thought to be retired from service like the Tochka-U.
Did I imply Russia wouldn't adapt? Or did I accurately assess that HIMARs put a big fucking kink in their logistics?
Sounds so simple, doesn't it?
Tornado's range is 2/3 of HIMARs, and there's nothing to indicate greater accuracy by Tornado. Fuckton of missiles? So why are the barrages abating?
What the fuck is it? Western analysts have long known that the ratio of supply vehicles to support independent brigades is too low for long supply lines. Each brigade is allotted a supply motor pool which has to provide all the food, ammo, clothing, fuel, gear, replacement parts, replacement troops, etc, and they've been set up to operate within maybe 20km of depots to provide this. This is because the force structure of the Russian army is predicated on fighting a defensive fight against NATO, so it doesn't anticipate outrunning its supply.
Awful mad over there.
/e ...and what has this war produced ample evidence of? Extremely poorly supplied Russians.
1) The only himars missile that has greater range than the Tornado are super rare and very few were made. The US has so far not given a single one to the ukranians, also shooting 200-300km missiles deep into russian held territory will just be shoot down because they can't overwhelm russian air defences that deep. The himars can only shoot 1 of these rockets, instead of the 6 normally. This would mean that they need something like 30-50 of these every time they try to hit, meaning they would need 30-50 himars systems shooting at same target at the same time 200+km deep. Remember very few of these missiles were ever produced, because at that range why the fuck would you use himars and not long-range missiles?
2) The accuracy of the 200km Tornado-S missiles are GLONASS with an accuracy of <1 meter /more accurate than the himars
3) Barrages increase and decrease over time depending on a multitude of different factors. If russia has 6000 nuclear warheads, you don't think they would have a fuckton regular missiles?
4) Western analysts have made up bullshit since day 1. We heard russia ran out of missiles 5 months ago. We heard they are stealing dishwashers. We heard putin has aids, cancer, is getting couped, his mother rose from the dead.
5) Funny you mention tochka-u. Russia has barelydipped into deep-storage missiles such as tochka-u. They are still only using kalibrs/iskanders/kh101 etc occasional next gen-missiles. They havn't even given deep-storage missiles to DPR. They were also decomissioned, and expolsives don't have long shelf-life so we have very little clue on the state of these missiles to begin with. Only ones we saw i think was the ones in melitopol? A few launchers. They have seen very little use.
Im done giving lessons to children. Fact is the only thing russians truely lack is man-power, if they pulled in 200-300 more reserves they would be easily be able to take the major cities they want (kharkov, zaproizhia, odessa, kry, nikolaev, odessa). With the current 200k, it isn't as obvious to me. They might take donbass, kherson-donbass area, and call it a day. We don't know.
This post was edited by ownyaah on Aug 2 2022 01:47am