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Mar 7 2022 02:43pm
According to Robert Barnes , the story about Russia attacking a Nuclear facility was false
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Mar 7 2022 02:44pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 7 Mar 2022 12:41)
NK can't be invaded.



between WW2 and Iraq2 the game of war changed. it's no longer take county by county and shut down newspapers. people have smart phones, Ukrainians are taking bitcoin donations, hell i saw people booking Air BNBs they wont actually visit in ukrainian cities just to pump cash into the country.

Insurgency is now a benchmark of war success, which sadly means we have to wait years to see how successful a war is. otherwise the success if hollow, because right now weeks into this war Russia has spent a fortune in just arms and men, and gained literally nothing back financially as far as i can see. and thats not even taking into account sanctions and lower oil price sales agreements.


You mean when George W got on that aircraft carrier and said "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" the war had only just begin? :D
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Mar 7 2022 02:49pm
Quote (Cascadian @ Mar 7 2022 03:44pm)
You mean when George W got on that aircraft carrier and said "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" the war had only just begin? :D


up to that point what we knew as war was over, we learned the hard way wars change big time. japan and germany had no choice but to accept the invaders in occupation, iraq just waited and smiled while we built them back up.
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Mar 7 2022 02:50pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 7 Mar 2022 20:12)
When you encourage normal people to make Molotov's and pick up AK's what do you think the natural consequences are going to be? You think Russian soldiers or tanks are not going to fire on someone simply because they aren't wearing a uniform if they are resisting?


The clips of Russians opening fire on humanitarian corridors didn't show Ukrainians with molotov cocktails, or Ukrainians resisting in any way.
I've repeatedly stressed that it is wrong to encourage civilians to attack a fully geared army with molotov cocktails and AKs and such and thus turn them into combatants - but this is NOT what went down during Russian attacks on fleeing civilians, so these two events must not be conflated.

Why are you guys so keen to relativize or excuse Russian war crimes? How come that the first impulse of you guys when faced with pictures of bombed out cities and civilians getting blown up is to pull tortured excuses or justifications for the attacks out of your arses? Why are you so keen to create a moral equivalence between attacker and attacked? I don't get it. It is definitely possibly to criticize both sides for their respective crimes and transgressions without falling into reflexive and unwarranted bothsideism. :rolleyes:

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 7 2022 03:04pm
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Mar 7 2022 02:51pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Mar 7 2022 03:41pm)
NK can't be invaded.



between WW2 and Iraq2 the game of war changed. it's no longer take county by county and shut down newspapers. people have smart phones, Ukrainians are taking bitcoin donations, hell i saw people booking Air BNBs they wont actually visit in ukrainian cities just to pump cash into the country.

Insurgency is now a benchmark of war success, which sadly means we have to wait years to see how successful a war is. otherwise the success if hollow, because right now weeks into this war Russia has spent a fortune in just arms and men, and gained literally nothing back financially as far as i can see. and thats not even taking into account sanctions and lower oil price sales agreements.


Too early to tell IMO. If they can prevent Ukraine from joining NATO Russia will view losing a few thousand as soldiers as a worthy sacrifice. The sanctions also, not sure the ramifications of that yet. I think Russia undoubtedly is worse off as a result of this conflict but few years from now who knows what will happen.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 7 2022 03:50pm)
The clips posted about Russians opening fire on humanitarian corridors didn't show Ukrainians with molotov cocktails, or Ukrainians resisting in any way.
I've repeatedly stressed that it is wrong to encourage civilians to attack a fully geared army with molotov cocktails and AKs and such and thus turn them into combatants - but this is NOT what went down during Russian attacks on fleeing civilians, so these two events must not be conflated.

Why are you guys so keen to relativize or excuse Russian war crimes? How come that the first impulse of you guys when faced with pictures of bombed out cities and civilians getting blown up is to pull tortured excuses or justifications for the attacks out of your arses? Why are you so keen to create a moral equivalence between attacker and attacked? I don't get it. It is definitely possibly to criticize both sides for their respective crimes and transgressions without falling into reflexive and unwarranted bothsideism. :rolleyes:



There's no such thing as clean wars. Literally all wars have war crimes. You think firing artillery always lands where you expect it to land? You think Dresden being flattened or Japan's Hiroshima and Nagasaki are war crimes? Maybe, but that's not the way it went down in history, because in an all out war those are nonsensical notions.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 7 2022 02:57pm
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Mar 7 2022 02:55pm
https://twitter.com/OakRedhammer/status/1500681220870447111



This post was edited by darkhead69 on Mar 7 2022 02:55pm
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Mar 7 2022 02:55pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 7 2022 03:51pm)
Too early to tell IMO. If they can prevent Ukraine from joining NATO Russia will view losing a few thousand as soldiers as a worthy sacrifice. The sanctions also, not sure the ramifications of that yet. I think Russia undoubtedly is worse off as a result of this conflict but few years from now who knows what will happen.


IF, and its a big IF, Putin calculated even close to the expenses this will cost Russia, then NATO expansion is an existential threat to him. but occam's razor tells me he didnt predict this western response, and is now all in with a mediocre hand with no choice but to wait out the rest of the cards. withdraw cant be done, he's gone too all in trying to paint this as toppling Hitler. he fucked up.
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Mar 7 2022 02:57pm
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 7 Mar 2022 20:39)
dont forget the asylum industry that has established itself since 2015

it has literally become a business here to profit from having the country flooded with people

i have heard some politicians talking about integration courses already among other stuff for ukranians

the entire process from arrival to housing (whether actual houses or containers), food deliveries, security services, courses is set up to extract boatloads of taxpayer money

i know from a family member in the local police that they already dont know where to put all these people and deportations have been stopped, because the bureaucrats are needed elsewhere

well, we would have a lot of space, but unfortunately that is already occupied by all kinds of illegal fighting age migrants .....


All true, however, this "asylum industry" didn't exist yet, at least not in its current form, when Merkel made the key decisions in 2015. The asylum industry feeding on the teat of the state has gotten fat and contributed to the consolidation of Merkel's lunacy in the months and years that followed, but its contribution to the start of this misguided policy was limited. The beneficiaries of the asylum industry are vultures and free loaders, not machiavellis.
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Mar 7 2022 03:00pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 7 2022 11:58am)
I don't doubt this is a thing but I just don't think it's indicative what will happen over the long term. It's focusing on the trees rather than the forest. I think Russia expected (like some of us did) that Ukraine's military forces would fold and start running, and this hasn't happened to the extent to which they thought they would.

I also don't think them taking their time to put those troops into place is indicative of anything really important, rather than they wanted to see if simply by display of force and numbers was enough to get the Ukrainians to agree to recognize the eastern region autonomy and not join NATO. Once that didn't work they actually pulled the trigger on the invasion. Right now, 200k is like what 1/5? of Russia's active military personnel, and i think they have a few million in reservists, so don't think a draft is coming.

Who knows how long this will drag out, I think Russia underestimated the cost but at this point they're too dedicated to the cause to pull back.

I also don't really know what's a good gage to consider something a success vs a failure? Like this is a week old war, and they have the capital surrounded? I think success/failure here is relative and of course we in the west would want it to seem like a complete failure, but objectively speaking, to have your forces basically ready to assault the capital in less than a week is a success story in any war that i've read about.


For Ukraine, it's simply to survive and have a functioning government. As time goes on, I imagine that the objects are to keep as much land as possible. For Russia, I think it's a lot more complicated. It appears that they wanted to quickly decapitate the government in Kyiv via Blitzkrieg tactics. In addition, I think they want to form a land bridge between Russia and Crimea and take as much of the Ukrainian coastline as possible in hopes that Ukraine (should it survive) cede those lands. If they can make it to Moldova, even better because Russia could claim most of the Black Sea resources.

As for Kyiv, the Russians haven't encircled it yet and supplies are moving in and out. I would HOPE that they are preparing for a very long siege (similar to Sarajevo, Stalingrad, etc.) given that the West has military advisors on the ground helping the Ukrainians out. I wouldn't necessarily call it "impressive" either since the border between Kyiv and Belarus is less than 200 km. Surrounding it from the South would have been really impressive though IMO. Russia is going to have to create more stable supply lines if they are going to hold the territory and that's assuming insurgency levels remain low-ish. Occupying territory requires A LOT of troops and I don't doubt that Russia is capable of doing it. The question is if they have the political will to do it given that their economy got nuked and they've lost thousands of troops already.
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Mar 7 2022 03:03pm
''I highly doubt that the Russian Defense minister Sergey Lavrov is just making shit up.''

russian defense minister accusing CIA of doing shady shit in Ukraine,
and discusing american bio weapon labs in ukraine


https://twitter.com/OakRedhammer/status/1500902749713547264



This post was edited by darkhead69 on Mar 7 2022 03:08pm
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