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Jun 16 2017 08:09pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Jun 16 2017 10:32pm)
oh yeah you're safe for quite a while. road construction is automating quickly in some sectors but home/building repair is still really really far off right now.

common shingle replacement guys should look out, that shit will be automated soon. but doing precision variable work like removing/replacing caulk will be quite a while!



My step dad says theres a "70% rule" nowadays wheres the skilled tradies rush the work just to finish on time and eat the penalties. Apparently companies are still incredibly profitable even with penalties for failed inspections

(this shit doesnt apply in renovations)

So im still slightly worried about a laser cutting drone with a sausage of caulk

This post was edited by Tuna_BeIIy on Jun 16 2017 08:10pm
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Jun 16 2017 08:26pm
Quote (Tuna_BeIIy @ Jun 16 2017 08:09pm)
My step dad says theres a "70% rule" nowadays wheres the skilled tradies rush the work just to finish on time and eat the penalties. Apparently companies are still incredibly profitable even with penalties for failed inspections

(this shit doesnt apply in renovations)

So im still slightly worried about a laser cutting drone with a sausage of caulk


Self checkout at Walmart proved doing a shitty job with no people can work
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Jun 17 2017 02:15am
Quote (Tuna_BeIIy @ Jun 16 2017 09:01pm)
On a somewhat related note, someone should invent a telescopic scaffold


They have, called scissor or telescopic boom lifts.




hope this helps.
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Jun 17 2017 02:57pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Jun 16 2017 08:48pm)
yeah yeah, i get it. you've done seen it all :blush:

thing is, those "jobs" "trained to build, service and maintain the robots." arent a thing.

i mean they are, but the percentage of jobs that are taken by robots compared to what you've said there isn't even really worth mentioning.

i wont take much time because i already know your biases are ingrained too deeply. but it takes about 1 maintenance tech to service an entire line of automation, which can do the jobs of 50-100 people. That's on today's tech. if only i could express in numbers the increase in sensors, computers, etc in automation lines in just the last 5 years. soon the maintenance men will be replaced.

as to "building robots' lol. you think a robot can build a car but not a robot? that's cute i guess. we have eliminated about a quarter of our fabrication dept in the last 3 years, with automated machinery. keeping in mind our company is growing at a VERY fast rate. so we're making about 125% of the products from the year before while reducing human labor.

i always have to laugh when people argue with me that really have zero idea about the automation industry. i mean i have a vested interest in taking people's jobs. i work for a profit sharing company in the automation industry. somehow its not alarming that i'm trying to warn people who i will directly profit off of.



as to that. my god dude.




Ever heard of IT departments? We can't even get one person to maintain a main frame, let alone 50-100 computers.
Your imagination doesn't even agree with the last decades tech advances, let alone the next.

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Jun 17 2017 03:08pm
Quote (Ghot @ Jun 17 2017 02:57pm)
Ever heard of IT departments? We can't even get one person to maintain a main frame, let alone 50-100 computers.
Your imagination doesn't even agree with the last decades tech advances, let alone the next.


my imagination? that's our standard number for the techs required for an automated line of conveyor/robots in a factory. The things i quote, detail, and install for a living 40 hours a week. it's been going down for years. The 50-100 is a large gap due to the wide range it could be applied to. basically 1 assembly line with zero human operators does the work for that many people and generally requires 1 tech to run it. in 10 years it might require zero.

i like how you seem entirely unable to understand what i'm talking about while remaining confident though.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jun 17 2017 03:09pm
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Jun 17 2017 03:12pm
Quote (Ghot @ Jun 17 2017 03:57pm)
Ever heard of IT departments? We can't even get one person to maintain a main frame, let alone 50-100 computers.
Your imagination doesn't even agree with the last decades tech advances, let alone the next.


Quote (thesnipa @ Jun 17 2017 04:08pm)
my imagination? that's our standard number for the techs required for an automated line of conveyor/robots in a factory. The things i quote, detail, and install for a living 40 hours a week. it's been going down for years. The 50-100 is a large gap due to the wide range it could be applied to. basically 1 assembly line with zero human operators does the work for that many people and generally requires 1 tech to run it. in 10 years it might require zero.

i like how you seem entirely unable to understand what i'm talking about while remaining confident though.



I believe I said...maintain. Not operate.

We are taking about robots tasking the place of humans, correct? How many humans does it take to maintain that assembly line of yours? Not operate, but repair, replace etc.


/e That was my original point. Yes, robots will replace humans in some jobs. In doing so, they will create other jobs, where humans ARE needed.

This post was edited by Ghot on Jun 17 2017 03:15pm
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Jun 17 2017 03:14pm
Quote (Ghot @ Jun 17 2017 03:12pm)
I believe I said...maintain.


1. what the fuck does an IT tech and mainframes have to do with an automated factory line?

2. what does this even mean: "Your imagination doesn't even agree with the last decades tech advances, let alone the next."

are you able to follow what i'm talking about (automated factories for blue collar labor)? because you keep bringing things up that have fuckall to do with what i'm even saying. i'm quite perplexed why you bolded what you did

Quote
We are taking about robots tasking the place of humans, correct? How many humans does it take to maintain that assembly line of yours? Not operate, but repair, replace etc


how many robots to repair? that's a nonsensical question. 1 person maintains a line of robots that does the physical assembly work of 50-100 people.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jun 17 2017 03:15pm
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Jun 17 2017 03:22pm
I'll try again.

Yes, we can make an assembly line that used to be worked by humans, and replace those humans with robot(s).
But then we need other humans to MAINTAIN, as in repair, that assembly line when it fails, as it will.


Long ago, I worked for a copier company. Ya know a company that supplied and maintained copiers. Copiers being a robotic device that replace a whole shytload of monks, that USED to do the copying.
It took a 30-40 man company to install, repair, replace said copiers.

And we were just a small copier company.

New technology always creates more jobs than it replaces.


150 years ago, there was 1-2 doctors per mid sized town. Now, there are 1000's, and that's with modern tech helping.

You have an xray machine, you need people to build them, repair them, replace them...etc.




This is NOT a difficult concept. Check with history.


/e Or...

Everyime new tech appears, people expect better service, better product etc. This creates jobs.

This post was edited by Ghot on Jun 17 2017 03:23pm
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Jun 17 2017 03:24pm
Quote (Ghot @ Jun 17 2017 03:22pm)
I'll try again.

Yes, we can make an assembly line that used to be worked by humans, and replace those humans with robot(s).
But then we need other humans to MAINTAIN, as in repair, that assembly line when it fails, as it will.


Long ago, I worked for a copier company. Ya know a company that supplied and maintained copiers. Copiers being a robotic device that replace a whole shytload of monks, that USED to do the copying.
It took a 30-40 man company to install, repair, replace said copiers.

And we were just a small copier company.

New technology always creates more jobs than it replaces.


150 years ago, there was 1-2 doctors per mid sized town. Now, there are 1000's, and that's with modern tech helping.

You have an xray machine, you need people to build them, repair them, replace them...etc.




This is NOT a difficult concept. Check with history.


1 person. it takes 1 person to maintain the line that used to take 50-100 people to work.


honestly though you're just taking the same line everyone does on the topic. like i said, in 100 years it wont be a problem. in 50 years in will be a huge problem.

i realize it will equalize, i guess i'm just worried about the largest displacement of unskilled labor in the history of the US and the effects that might have over a 50 year period until we equalize and what we might do to mitigate those negative effects. are you caught up now sir?

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jun 17 2017 03:25pm
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Jun 17 2017 03:28pm
Ifyou just want to be stubborn, I can't stop you.


But all history shows, that new tech (w/e it is) creates MORE jobs. Mainly because new tech raises expectations.

Jobs and Gates built the first personal computers....TWO guys.
Now we have robots building all the computer components, YET the people's expectation of personal comps has risen. Ergo, more jobs become available to fill those expectations.


/e As for equalization, it happens rather naturally. Companies that owned those assembly line workers, will, most of the time, offer training in other fields.

This post was edited by Ghot on Jun 17 2017 03:31pm
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