Quote (dro94 @ 3 Jul 2022 11:08)
Lysychansk has fallen to the Russians. Looks like the Ukrainians played it smart and withdrew from the city before getting fully encircled
Bakhmut, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are the next heavily fortified areas Russia will need to overcome, and it will be an intense fight
Yup, I've already been predicting over a month ago that the battle over Sieverodonetsk (and later Lysychansk) would only be a prelude to the battle over the Slovyansk/Kramatorsk agglomeration, which will be the decisive battle for control over the Donbass.
Slovyansk/Kramatorsk are bigger cities, the headquarters of the Ukrainian army in the region, heavily fortified... and unlike Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk, they are not surrounded by Russia-controlled territory on three sides before the fighting even begins.
The big question mark right now imho is how exhausted the forces on both sides are. The Ukrainians held Sieverodonetsk far longer than I anticipated, but Lysychansk fell rather quickly. This might have been a consequence of the battlefield, but it could also point to cracks in the Ukrainian defense. Similarly, we have no idea how much or how little time the Russians need to replenish and regroup their forces before they are ready to move on Kramatorsk.