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Jun 18 2022 07:36am
Quote (ofthevoid @ 18 Jun 2022 13:15)
They are still suppling oil to the west by using blends/unmarked ships and of course by shipping into India for refinement which in turn is sold back onto oil markets. This IMO won't change.

Winners are the US, India, China.

Losers: Europe, Russia, much of the 3rd world that can't compete or afford sky high energy prices


I would be really happy if Ukraine get most of its resssources back soon while Russia change gov and get closer to EU after peace. Could change everything.
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Jun 18 2022 07:45am
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Jun 18 2022 09:36am)
I would be really happy if Ukraine get most of its resssources back soon while Russia change gov and get closer to EU after peace. Could change everything.


The probability of Ukraine getting Crimea and most of the Donbas back is close to zero. It's not even a military question at this point. In the Donbass those inhabitants have been at war with the Ukrainian military+ various militias like Azov for 8+ years. Most of the men there that haven't fled to the west are fighting on DPR/LPR sides from those regions. There's just too big a rift now and too much blood and destruction for those people to magically just say okay we will listen to a pro-west Kiev government after a decade of war.



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Jun 18 2022 08:04am
Quote (ofthevoid @ 18 Jun 2022 13:45)
The probability of Ukraine getting Crimea and most of the Donbas back is close to zero. It's not even a military question at this point. In the Donbass those inhabitants have been at war with the Ukrainian military+ various militias like Azov for 8+ years. Most of the men there that haven't fled to the west are fighting on DPR/LPR sides from those regions. There's just too big a rift now and too much blood and destruction for those people to magically just say okay we will listen to a pro-west Kiev government after a decade of war.


Pro-russians is build, armed, and commanded by Moscow.
Once Ukraine get all the weapons while EU get some more energy independancy, it could be much easier than "close to zero". Russia is 25 times smaller GDP than NATO, remember ?
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Jun 18 2022 08:10am
Lol this guy is still babbling about artificial GDP numbers
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Jun 18 2022 08:16am
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Jun 18 2022 10:04am)
Pro-russians is build, armed, and commanded by Moscow.
Once Ukraine get all the weapons while EU get some more energy independancy, it could be much easier than "close to zero". Russia is 25 times smaller GDP than NATO, remember ?


None of this has anything to do with what I'm saying. At some point in a relationship, after years of abuse, fights, cheating, etc, it becomes impossible to mend that relationship. Kiev will not be friendly to Russia for decades after this, nor will the Donbas accept contently a pro-western Kiev rule after being bombed for 8+ years by them.
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Jun 18 2022 08:27am
Quote (ofthevoid @ 18 Jun 2022 14:16)
None of this has anything to do with what I'm saying. At some point in a relationship, after years of abuse, fights, cheating, etc, it becomes impossible to mend that relationship. Kiev will not be friendly to Russia for decades after this, nor will the Donbas accept contently a pro-western Kiev rule after being bombed for 8+ years by them.


Not sure you can understand; Crimea has been attached to Ukraine under Krutchev... It has changed regime often in centuries.
When Russia will have lost the conventional war i hardly see them using nukes to get crimea back... Putin is not eternal... ;)
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Jun 18 2022 08:33am
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Jun 18 2022 10:27am)
Not sure you can understand; Crimea has been attached to Ukraine under Krutchev... It has changed regime often in centuries.
When Russia will have lost the conventional war i hardly see them using nukes to get crimea back... Putin is not eternal... ;)


Crimea is 60%+ ethnic Russian. They don't need to get Crimea back because they have Crimea. It's not only about the land but about the people living there. Russia in theory could take all of Ukraine militarily but what would be the point to take Galicia when it has a near zero ethnic Russian population, a population that has historically been anti-Soviet, etc? It would be near impossible to hold long term peacefully and pretty pointless.



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Jun 18 2022 08:41am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Jun 18 2022 09:45am)
The probability of Ukraine getting Crimea and most of the Donbas back is close to zero. It's not even a military question at this point. In the Donbass those inhabitants have been at war with the Ukrainian military+ various militias like Azov for 8+ years. Most of the men there that haven't fled to the west are fighting on DPR/LPR sides from those regions. There's just too big a rift now and too much blood and destruction for those people to magically just say okay we will listen to a pro-west Kiev government after a decade of war.


Donbas can't be occupied or the war can't end. If there is a ceasefire and Russians are in Donbas that means another war like this in less than ten years that Ukraine won't be poised to win.

There will be bombs on Moscow before this is over if Putin doesn't stop his delusion. They are saying "we are not at war with ukraine". They are schizophrenic.

It is crazy how many of you support the re emergence of the Soviet Union and secret police systems and ending democracy in these free countries (Ukraine, Moldova, Baltic States). You have all really made whores of your souls. You endorse a world where secret police take people out of their house in the secrecy of night so they can disappear from their families. You don't want these people to be able to speak freely about their beliefs, worship freely, earn money and have a savings, or enjoy the freedom you do. It's disgusting to be clear how you want these for yourself but gone for Ukrainians.

This post was edited by Skinned on Jun 18 2022 08:43am
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Jun 18 2022 08:42am
Quote (ofthevoid @ 18 Jun 2022 14:33)
Crimea is 60%+ ethnic Russian. They don't need to get Crimea back because they have Crimea. It's not only about the land but about the people living there. Russia in theory could take all of Ukraine militarily but what would be the point to take Galicia when it has a near zero ethnic Russian population, a population that has historically been anti-Soviet, etc? It would be near impossible to hold long term peacefully and pretty pointless.


Ukraine had crimea for decades, let me quote the wiki:

Ukraine and many other countries condemned the annexation and consider it to be a violation of international law and Russian-signed agreements safeguarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including the 1991 Belavezha Accords that established the Commonwealth of Independent States, the 1975 Helsinki Accords, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances[51] and the 1997 Treaty on friendship, cooperation and partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.


--------------

https://sports.yahoo.com/russia-strategically-lost-war-ukraine-124624471.html

good riddance
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Jun 18 2022 09:01am
Quote (Skinned @ Jun 18 2022 10:41am)
Donbas can't be occupied or the war can't end. If there is a ceasefire and Russians are in Donbas that means another war like this in less than ten years that Ukraine won't be poised to win.

There will be bombs on Moscow before this is over if Putin doesn't stop his delusion. They are saying "we are not at war with ukraine". They are schizophrenic.

It is crazy how many of you support the re emergence of the Soviet Union and secret police systems and ending democracy in these free countries (Ukraine, Moldova, Baltic States). You have all really made whores of your souls. You endorse a world where secret police take people out of their house in the secrecy of night so they can disappear from their families. You don't want these people to be able to speak freely about their beliefs, worship freely, earn money and have a savings, or enjoy the freedom you do. It's disgusting to be clear how you want these for yourself but gone for Ukrainians.


Your babbling has nothing to do with reality on the ground. Smart people that understand the power balance in this war i.e. Macron & other Euro leaders are urging Ukraine to give up some territory for a reason.

Bombs on Moscow= nuclear war, maybe if you didn't have the geopolitical understanding of a 12 year old you'd understand this and pray to Nietzsche it never happens.


In 6 months Russian forces will probably have taken Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and you idiots will still be talking about how they are losing the war and how now at any moment Ukraine will retake the Donbas and Crimea. Complete divorce from logic and what's actually happening.
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