Quote (Black XistenZ @ 9 Jun 2017 07:59)
her plan sure did backfire spectacularly. but when you look at the polling in this figure:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.pngyou can see that the tories are actually at about where they were before the sudden poll surge that prompted May to call the snap election. so the tories havent underperformed thaaaaat badly in terms of popular vote.
instead, its the sudden and unexpected comeback of labour which put them in a spot where they could be competitive for a lot of tory-held seats.
ofc, it is the nature of the british election system to be very unpredictable and to sometimes yield dramatic gains or losses of seats based on relatively marginal changes in the popular vote shares. elections in the UK are inherently more risky than in other countries.
furthermore, it was ofc a mistake of May to run such a dreadful campaign. nonetheless, despite its abysmal outcome, I actually still think that the logic behind her call for the snap election was solid.
well, i'm not quite sure what you're trying to tell me here - yes, it was a solid idea, a politically opportunistic move, to call for elections (again, despite previously claiming on multiple occasions that she wouldn't do that) - however, it was largely her fault that it did not work out.
the point about the unpredictability of british elections is well taken - but going from a narrow majority of 330 seats previously to UNDER 320 - while trying to extend your lead and strengthen your mandate is a complete and utter fail, there's no way around it...
i'm curious if she will draw personal consequences and resign or if she will try to hold on to her power and sit this out. anyway, the only people who can be at least SOMEWHAT happy about this result are brits who hope for some change in domestic politics, specifically healthcare.
for the EU this is rather bad news imo, a clear majority negotiating partner with a solid mandate would have been much better for the upcoming brexit talks. i think a hard brexit would have been the cleanest solution for everyone, if the brits so desperately long for insignificance, so be it.
now, depending on who they manage to form a government with, it might be under the condition of negotiating a soft brexit - and what seems almost certain at this point is that the talks will be delayed further. a very unsatisfying situation for almost everyone...