Weird.

I'm red, but I sold some $24 calls expiring 9/3, so if PLTR wants to hang sideways I welcome it. Hell, let it get back down to $20. I'll buy more.

They've already got enough existing contracts locked up to do 70% of the business they did last year. Every new sale is just icing on the cake. And with 9 years of cash and no significant debt I'm just going to keep dumping money into it.

IMO PLTR is adequately valued as a value stock right now, and extremely undervalued as a growth stock. and it's clearly something to look at as a growth stock lol

Yup. My HSA is now 70% TLSA and 30% PLTR.

With how talented their engineering team is I'd say there's one of two possibilities.

One is they continue and totally shit stomp Google and Amazon in the AI space. They've more than proven they have the capability to do this.

Two is they end up merging with another giant.

I'll take either one and ride it to the moon. They've got 9 years of operating funds. Most bullish scenario is what? They end up just doing great business for 9 years and pay the extra cash out as dividends? Yes please.

Exactly. Can't wait for TSLA and PLTR to start paying Dividends... probably 2030+ but I'll still take it after a few stock splits lol.

Now that 180 is basically resistance for baba , what are the next major supports you seeing ?

Not a charting expert but looking at the longer term chart 168 seems to be an important level. If that breaks there's major support level between 140-150.

For traders, it's below it's lower Bollinger band on the yearly chart, with rsi< 30 might be a good bounce setup to within the bands over the next few days.

Problem is there is a lot of pressure from international/western money leaving China after their recent crackdowns. If you have a fiduciary responsibility to your clients as a money manager this sector of emerging markets is too much risk right now so are seeing major drawdowns. Right now we can try playing catch the falling knife but idk there has to be some sort of sentiment change before doing so imo.

In some ways the calculus has changed, which makes me a little scared as a China investor. Prior to recent crackdowns, most people assumed the CCP would largely stay out of the way of their own corps becoming dominant so people assumed ok well China is growing, these massive tech companies look relatively cheap versus their American counterparts so lets buy in, basically the thesis most of us believed. But the problem is, we're seeing that unlike the US, China is willing to seriously crack down on anti-competitive behavior from the likes of tencent, baba and so on. If government is able to step in and mess with your economies of scale and your ability to kill competitors then obviously your growth rate will suffer.

Ideally something like this needs to happen in the US with big tech but it won't because it would drag the whole market down considering how concentrated most indexes/etfs are on our largest tech companies. It's also political as well. The party in power during such a crackdown would get annihilated at the polls if they cause a 30% market crash even if it's the right thing to do for competitiveness long term.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Aug 18 2021 09:06am

Nice, something we can agree on.

Just another note on BABA.

This is as of the beginning of the month.



https://www.yahoo.com/now/alibaba-sales-miss-sign-spending-110049220.html#:~:text=The%20company%20announced%20Tuesday%20it,by%2050%25%20to%20$15%20billion.

Smart companies and CEO's don't increase share buybacks when their stock is ATH but rather when they think the stock is worth more than any other investment and they think the price will appreciate.

It's hard to fight the downtrend but to me this is pretty strong indicator that if you have a medium term horizon this might be a good time to buy. To me it's much more probable that the stock goes up 15% from these levels rather takes another 15% lower, but who knows i'v been wrong on Baba so far.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Aug 18 2021 10:09am

Three main factors to consider when looking at excess cash... WACC vs Share Repo vs M&A. Ideally, you are looking for Share Repo return of 8%+ and M&A return of 12%+ to justify.

Their cost of capital is probably next to nothing considering how cheap global money is, especially for companies that are titans and and can issue at triple A investment grade debt. As far as M&A, in this current environment, that's not really realistic for Chinese giants. They are actually being threatened with the exact opposite being forced to divest/spin off certain business units, i.e. ant financial.

If they're being hamstrung by the gov't which is trying to curtail their monopolistic growth, not much else to do than give money back to the shareholder in the form of reducing shares outstanding.