wtf I don't remember hearing that on timcast™ I guess I should have become a member™

China is laughing so hard.

Today, a recent analysis by the University Clinic Hamburg-Eppendorf, one of Germany's leading research hospitals, was published. They investigated every deceased person diagnosed with covid in the city of Hamburg since the start of the pandemic; this is one of the most comprehensive studies available.



They found that 618 out of 735 surveyed cases, or 84%, died from covid. Seven percent had covid at the time of their death, but did not die from it. The remaining cases couldnt be determined due to incomplete data and such.

The average age of the deceased was 83 years, 75% of them were older than 76 years. Only around 1% (7 cases) were younger than 50, of which all were suffering from severe comorbidities, e.g. heart disease or tumors.
20% of all covid deaths in this study affected people who were morbidly obese.



If someone wants the source (couldnt find it in English): https://www.uke.de/allgemein/presse/pressemitteilungen/detailseite_104325.html

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 18 2021 04:05pm

84% directly from Covid is a lot higher than I thought it would be actually. I figured a related comorbidity would be significant in more cases.

Yeah, I was surprised too. The sample is a bit small in its scope (just one city from one country, even if its a massive one with a population of 1.8m), but I think this silly "did people die from covid or with covid"-argument can be put to rest.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 18 2021 05:15pm

Oh, the "from or with" has been a red herring from the start. Virtually everybody has a comorbidity so "they died but it doesn't count because they were obese" is meaningless.

Well, the study says 20% of all the covid deaths in the sample were morbidly obese, so it seems to be a really significant comorbidity. It's just... what kind of conclusion do we want to draw from this empirical fact? Is it really "the fatties deserve it"?
It might, however, explain some of the race stratification we can see in America. Black and hispanic Americans suffer from much higher rates of obesity than whites, which probably explains a decent chunk of the higher covid mortality among minorities. Not all of it, but I'd be surprised if it wasnt one of the major factors.

The recent recombination from UK variant (easier spread) x California variant (vaccine resistant) is here to remind us that Covid will always be here now

the UK strain is already up to almost 25% of new infections in germany. ridiculously contagious.

The British variant, B.1.1.7, is already making up a much larger share of infections in Denmark, Belgium and even France, yet their cases are not going through the roof, they're going down (Denmark, Germany) or have and still are stagnant in spite of the spread of the variants (France, Belgium).

I honestly dont know what to make of the empirical data we have on these variants. In all three cases where infection numbers went through the roof (UK, Ireland, Portugal), you had a significant loosening of the restrictions and a burst of socializing (in Ireland, the pubs were filled to the brim before Christmas) before their surge in cases. And now, numbers are going down very rapidly in all 3 countries, and at least on paper, it doesnt seem as if their lockdowns are that much harder than here in Germany, where the decrease is quite sluggish.

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker


Realistically, the goal has to be to find the least harmful way through the remaining 4-6 weeks until spring weather solves the problem for the time being. Then, we must get our vaccination campaign done by the end of summer. Going into the next winter unprotected, with more dangerous/contagious variants around, would be a total disaster. Neither society nor the economy can take another winter like this one, let alone one with even worse restrictions.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 18 2021 06:41pm