Quote (Goomshill @ Jun 13 2019 09:52pm)

There are plenty of possible motivations
Power play for leverage in nuclear negotiations. Rattling the Saudis. Stirring up intentional instability in oil markets. Increasing their credibility as a threat, for deterrence. Rogue actors, the left hand not knowing what the right is doing. Strategic incompetence.
Iran has been trying to assert dominance over the strait of Hormuz for decades. They've been using their threat to block shipping as leverage since the revolution, and without a credible threat they lose that leverage.
Iran could have been banking on the western media and their online influence campaigns spinning the fallout to actually pressure the west instead of themselves due to the rampant denialism / conspiracy theorizing.
Or they could have simply be making a foolish miscalculation and thinking this power play would pay off.

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Tensions have increased further since Trump acted at the beginning of May to force Iran’s oil customers to slash their imports to zero or face draconian U.S. financial sanctions. Iran’s oil exports have dropped to around 400,000 barrels per day in May from 2.5 million bpd in April last year.

Quote (Goomshill @ Jun 14 2019 12:32am)

We all going to ignore the fact we actually have video/photo evidence?

The Iranians didn't wait 5 hours until everyone was gone to sail up to an empty, already evacuated vessel and stealthily remove an unexploded mine from it for no reason at all.

Quote (Leevee @ Jun 13 2019 11:20pm)

Happened to see this news report on CNN. Sounds like pure speculation to me. Sadly, speculation is enough to start wars these days, so I'm a bit worried about what's gonna happen next.

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Iranian officials have threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route in the Gulf, if the United States attempts to stop the Islamic Republic’s oil exports.

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Iranian officials on Thursday suggested the new attacks might be the product of an elaborate conspiracy by their enemies, seemingly pointing to American allies like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Israel, which have long urged Washington to take a more muscular approach to Iran.

But many analysts said there was a growing consensus in the West that Iran had been behind last month’s attacks, which took place near the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. And they argued that Iran appeared to be seeking to demonstrate it could imperil the world’s oil markets, but without leaving the kind of fingerprints that could trigger American military retaliation.

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But much of the chronology centered on the movement of nearby Iranian ships, and what Central Command said was an Iranian order to take control of Altair sailors who had been rescued.

About an hour after the Kokuka Courageous’ distress call, a U.S. aircraft observed an IRGC Hendijan-class patrol boat and multiple IRGC fast attack craft and fast inshore attack craft near the Altair, Urban said.

He said that at 9:26 a.m. Iranian forces told a ship that had rescued sailors from the Altair “to turn the crew over to the Iranian (fast inshore attack craft).”

“The motor vessel Hyundai Dubai complied with the request and transferred the crew of the Altair to the Iranian (vessels),” Urban said.

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“We are responsible for ensuring the security of the Strait and we have rescued the crew of those attacked tankers in the shortest possible time,” Radio quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi as saying.

“Obviously, accusing Iran for such a suspicious and unfortunate incident is the simplest and the most convenient way for (U.S. Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo and other U.S. officials. These accusations are alarming.”

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Meeting on Friday on the sidelines of a regional summit in Kyrgyzstan, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on Friday that China will promote steady development of ties with Iran no matter how the situation changes, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

Quote (bogie160 @ Jun 13 2019 08:16pm)

There are more than 100,000 members. Let me know whether or not "special forces" was a joke.

The IRG controls an enormous portion of the Iranian domestic economy, you'd have to know very little about Iran to think that they function as a normal extension of the military.

Their direct ties to terrorism overseas are well documented.

Quote (CarsV @ Jun 13 2019 08:49pm)

They're more of a paramilitary force, separate from the Iranian military, with political and religious origins. They've been known to cooperate with terrorist organizations and partake in other questionable endeavors such as smuggling. Comparing them to the US Army Rangers is laugh out loud.

Quote (Goomshill @ 14 Jun 2019 03:33)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtIR-U0GhhQ

Video of an Iranian fastboat recovering an unexploded limpet mine from the side of the Kokuka Courageous during the attacks.
How are those conspiracy theories / crisis actors / steel beams working out?