Essler Mil -1.5 RL 3*
Jack Winningham
Milwaukee +167
October 1st, 2019 NL WILD CARD
Let’s start by being honest – something most gambling salespeople won’t be. Normally when I am betting baseball, as well as ANY sport, I’m looking for mis-matches. Predicting the outcome of a baseball playoff SERIES is tough enough. Bring it down to a single game – with two top teams? It’s that much tougher. In the regular season, with up to 15 games to select, I would NEVER touch this game. EVER. PERIOD. But, we no longer have power teams facing dogs. We have power vs power. So looking at trends and pitching is where I’m going to be making my play.
Many people are talking about how the Nationals at home are ‘a lock’. Really now? Let’s actually look at the NL Wild Card since the current One-Game format was installed in 2012. OH! What do ya know? The home team has LOST 5 times out of the 7 Wild Card teams played. So much for home field advantage (which BTW hasn’t ever seemed to help the Nats in the past).
So we are down to the most important area a baseball handicapper can zero in on – STARTING PITCHING. I’m going to submit to you that the Nationals are making a mistake by starting Max Scherzer in this game tonight. Max is a great pitcher – one of the best of this era – and he’s a FIERCE competitor. But tonight, he’s not the best SP on the Nationals. That would be Stephen Strasburg. Why? Ever since Scherzer has returned from his injury (Back AND Shoulder issues), he has not been the same pitcher. Although his strikeout to walk ratio is still excellent, his velocity is down. And that is showing in crucial areas, such as ERA. And Scherzer’s bulldog mentality could very well be working against him. Do you REALLY THINK if his shoulder is bothering him he’s gonna own up to it and risk not being able to pitch? If you know this guy at all, you know he’s gonna grind through the pain. But enough of my nickel and dime guess work – let’s look at some NUMBERS and compare Scherzer and Strasburg over the last 60 and 30 days.
I have my own way of grading pitchers – and it’s too much to go into here today – so you’ll either accept my ranking or you won’t. But the select numbers I’m sharing won’t and cannot lie. Over the last 60 days, I have Strasburg ranked as my #7 overall pitcher – OVERALL – in MLB. Max? I have him at #52. Here are some stats to consider over those 60 days:
Strasburg: ERA 3.42 / Strikeouts 83 / Walks 22 / Quality Starts 8 / Innings Pitched 68.1
Scherzer: ERA 4.74 / Strikeouts 54 / Walks 8 / Quality Starts 1 / Innings Pitched 38
Now, some may say those stats are skewed because Max didn’t pitch well right after he returned from the Injured List. Okay – let’s compare the last 30 days:
Strasburg: ERA 2.40 / Strikeouts 36 / Walks 13 / Quality Starts 4 / Innings Pitched 30
Scherzer: ERA 5.16 / Strikeouts 43 / Walks 6 / Quality Starts 1 / Innings Pitched 29.2
Max is striking more guys out. But he’s not giving his team quality starts, and he’s not keeping guys from crossing home plate. With Scherzer starting, like it or not, the Nats are going to likely give up a few more runs than they would with Strasburg, and that means a quicker trip to their weakest area – the bullpen.
Scherzer may have better numbers vs the Brewers – but since his return, the best SP on Washington and the SP that gives them the best chance of winning – is Strasburg. And he isn’t pitching.
As for the Brewers – there’s not much to say. Their pitching is way more unpredictable tonight. Woodruff isn’t going to be in there long, and they are taking the bullpen approach with a “Next Arm Up” mentality to this game. I NEVER bet on teams using the ‘Opener’ in the regular season, but then again as I already stated, I’d never bet this game in the first place in the regular season. But tonight, it’s the only game on the docket.
If I rated games from 1 to 5 stars, I’d give this one a single star. And I’d put it on Milwaukee. For the reasons I’ve already listed. I’d bet differently if Strasburg was on the hill, but he’s not. The money line on this game also makes the Brewers the better play. At -180, Washington isn’t the value pick.
Examine your bankroll, and place a small bet on Milwaukee +167 (current line at BETONLINE.ag)
BEST OF LUCK TONIGHT!
Jack
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Milw Brewers+1.5(RL) -135
Jim Feist
MLB
3* #912 Washington -175
Bobby Valentino
Nats RL
Chris Jordan
Second-Ever BLANK CHECK
MLB Game of the Year
Wild Card Dog - Nats RL
Miller locks
8:08 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Washington nationals
pick: Milwaukee brewers (+157)
risk: 11 units