Quote (Broken_Rhythm @ Apr 20 2018 07:40am)
Someone show me the numbers and % for the following situation
I want to know if the person is offering a fair deal
If I win 1 out of every 8 times and get paid 7 times my bet when I win, will I break even
The game is "unfair".
Quote (Broken_Rhythm @ Apr 20 2018 07:59am)
Well I figured it out, it's simple lmao
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
+6
=
-1
closed
Fixed.
"get paid 7 times my bet when I win" means you've already lost your bet when winning 7 times your bet : +7 - 1 = +6 is your final gain in this case.
Quote (123456789 @ Apr 20 2018 07:59am)
I think explaining it with the coinflip concept is a would make it much easier because they are similar to all ins ( 50/50)
Basicly the game is : I am offering him a game where the odds are fair ( from my point of view ) and unfair ( from his point of view)
The game I offer is : You have to win 3 time in a row a coinflip in order to win my 7 pennies
if ever he lose one coinflip he must give me his 1 penny
(...)
Situation is different here :
(1/8) chance of winning 7
(7/8) chance of losing 1
Average (mean, expected value) = 0, the game is "fair".
Quote (Broken_Rhythm @ Apr 20 2018 07:40am)
(...), will I break even
Even assuming the game is fair, whatever amount of money you are willing to invest, you will almost certainly be broke at a point.
That is to say : the probability of you being broke after some large number of deals is 100%.