Good read about the contract situation with Ngakoue...
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Cap expert: $21M per season is ‘ballpark’ number for Jaguars DE Yannick Ngakoue
Shortly after last season ended, Jason Fitzgerald had advice for Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue: Be patient.
With several top pass rushers set to be eligible for free agency, Fitzgerald was confident that contracts eventually signed by Demarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark and Dee Ford would work in Ngakoue’s favor.
“There is probably an opportunity to watch the market explode this offseason,” Fitzgerald, who runs the salary cap and contracts analysis website overthecap.com, told the Times-Union in January.
Fitzgerald was correct. Less than six months later, all three players have signed big-money deals, setting the stage for Ngakoue to cash in — at some point — as he enters the final year of his rookie contract.
Lawrence remained in Dallas on a five-year, $105 million deal. Clark was traded from Seattle to Kansas City and signed a five-year, $104 million deal, and in a related move, Ford was traded from Kansas City to San Francisco and signed a five-year, $85 million deal.
In terms of average salary per year, Lawrence ($21 million) is second, Clark ($20.8M) is third and Ford ($17M) is tied for sixth among all NFL edge rushers, per Fitzgerald’s website. (Chicago’s Khalil Mack is first at $23.5 million.) Trey Flowers, who also signed a new contract this offseason, is fifth at $18 million after getting a five-year, $90 million deal done with Detroit.
The market has been set, and unsurprisingly, Ngakoue is ready for similar money. Due a base salary of just $2.025 million this season, Ngakoue skipped last week’s mandatory minicamp to protest his lack of a long-term deal. He could continue that holdout into training camp next month, though he has to report 30 days before the Sept. 8 opener to accrue a season. (Without a fourth accrued season, Ngakoue would be a restricted free agent next offseason rather than unrestricted.)
What does Fitzgerald see now for Ngakoue? An oncoming payday — and a test of just how much the Jaguars value their 24-year-old homegrown talent.
“For a player like this, you are probably looking at a contract that exceeds that of Clark and Lawrence,” Fitzgerald wrote in an email to the Times-Union earlier this week. “So a ballpark of $21 million a season with around $65 million guaranteed for injury.”
If that sounds like a lot of money, it is. When the Jaguars signed quarterback Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract in March, they gave him $50.125 million in total guarantees. That was the most in team history. A deal for Ngakoue could surpass that and represent the first time the franchise has handed out a $100 million contract.
That’s not a decision made lightly.
The Jaguars, who are likely a year away from re-signing cornerback Jalen Ramsey, could argue for a deal closer to $16-$18 million per season for Ngakoue because of his low salary this season and their ability to use the franchise tag, if necessary, in 2020. (Though it can be pointed out, they made another former third-round pick, Brandon Linder, the league’s highest-paid center in July 2017 with one season left on his rookie contract.)
After seeing what other pass rushers have received this offseason, Ngakoue’s camp is likely thinking similarly to Fitzgerald: Negotiations should begin at $20 million per year.
Former agent Joel Corry, who now writes salary cap articles for CBS Sports, said as much Thursday when he tweeted: “There’s a better chance of Kawhi Leonard re-signing with the Spurs than Yannick Ngakoue signing for less than $20M per year.”
A reasonable case can easily be made that Ngakoue deserves that type of money. His production over the past three seasons rivals or betters Lawrence, Clark and Ford. Since Ngakoue entered the league in 2016, his 29 1/2 sacks are more than Lawrence (26) and Ford (25) but trailing Clark (32). His 10 forced fumbles tops the group, ahead of Ford (nine), Lawrence (seven) and Clark (seven).
Compare Ngakoue’s numbers to what those three players were doing in their first three seasons in the league and the difference is considerably larger. And that surely will come up in negotiations.
There are also other variables supporting Ngakoue.
He turned 24 in March, making him the youngest of the group. Ford turned 28 in March, Lawrence turned 27 in April and Clark turned 26 earlier this month. In terms of sacks, Clark’s best season to date came in Year 4. Same for Lawrence, and Ford’s was Year 5, so the Jaguars seemingly would be paying for Ngakoue’s best seasons.
Ngakoue has no off-the-field issues that would be a concern and seems to have the support of a locker room that saw him rise from a third-round pick to a top talent. No doubt, teammates are watching closely to see how this plays out.
“Me personally, I think [Ngakoue] has earned a contract,” Ramsey said earlier this month. “I think he deserves it. That is something that his team and the Jags will have to figure out, and I hope they can figure it out because I definitely want him a part of this team.
“As long as I am a part of this team, I want him to be a part of this team. We built something special. There are a few guys who really came in and changed the culture and made things pop and he’s definitely one of them.”
Of course, more than sacks and forced fumbles are considered before a deal of this magnitude is made. Overall impact has to be thought about, and there are indicators Ngakoue needs to improve how he impacts the game when he isn’t getting to quarterbacks. For example, Ngakoue finished eight games — exactly half of last season — with one or zero tackles. Clark had five such games, Ford had three and Lawrence had two.
Fitzgerald doubted how much that would impact Ngakoue’s future earnings, but it’s something the Jaguars won’t ignore. Also worth noting is the fact they used their latest first-round draft pick on Josh Allen, someone they feel can become a star at the same position Ngakoue plays.
″[Ngakoue] is probably lagging a bit in his play against the run, but generally that is not a main salary driver, and there is no reason to think he can’t improve,” Fitzgerald said. “He is only 24, so he is younger than those other players and that is really the biggest strength.”
What would a contract look like? The Jaguars currently have about $8.8 million in salary cap space, per the NFLPA, though that doesn’t account for linebacker Telvin Smith’s $9.75 million base salary that will be credited back if he sits out this season.
With the team’s current situation, Fitzgerald’s suggestion was a deal that includes a $20 million signing bonus this year (cash in Ngakoue’s bank account immediately) with a league-minimum salary. That could result in a cap charge of about $5 million in 2019 because the Jaguars could spread Ngakoue’s signing bonus over five seasons ($4M per year) with a low base salary this season. His cap numbers would be significantly larger in 2020 and beyond.
That’s essentially how the Chiefs structured Clark’s deal. He has a base salary of $805,000 this season and received a $19 million signing bonus along with $62.3 million in guarantees. With other bonuses tied in, his salary cap number this season is manageable at $6.5 million, and he will have cap numbers of $22.7M, $24.2M, $24.7M and $26.2M the following four years.
“Some teams balk at the price of [top pass rushers],” Fitzgerald said. “It is a lot of money to invest in a non-QB and there are teams that believe you can find younger talent as well a scheming a pass rush. ... I don’t expect the Jaguars to be one of those teams that balks at the price since we have seen them spend big for Calais Campbell and Malik Jackson in the past.”
If the Jaguars and Ngakoue’s camp cannot get a deal done, the franchise tag looms in 2020. Lawrence earned $17.1 million on the franchise tag last season before signing a long-term contract with the Cowboys, and Ngakoue would be set to make north of that because of the deals that have already been signed since then.
Fitzgerald’s belief was that “it is hard to see any benefit” for the Jaguars in waiting to sign Ngakoue. Over the next month or so, we should find out whether they agree.
“Prices generally always go up,” Fitzgerald said. “So unless they just don’t see a future with him, there is zero reason to wait.”
https://www.jacksonville.com/sports/20190620/cap-expert-21m-per-season-is-ballpark-number-for-jaguars-de-yannick-ngakoue