Aren't you contradicting yourself here, at least a little bit? Russia is a vast, sparsely populated country with plenty of arable land if necessary; they depend less on Ukraine as a breadbasket than the densely populated EU. And yes, the bulk of Ukraine's particularly fertile soils and farming regions lie in what you like to call "the destitute western half" of the country; the parts which would belong to rump-Ukraine in any conceivable peace deal.
Likewise, the EU, the self-proclaimed "moral superpower" (lmao), is surely more interested in the role Ukraine serves in supplying Africa with grain than Russia is, a country with a long history of not giving a fuck about the lives of its own citizens, let alone anyone else's.
One can make an economic case for this war from Russia's pov by arguing that the rare earths in the Donbass are of utmost geostrategic importance (remains to be seen, but plausible enough), but the farmland surely doesn't justify the all effort and death toll Russia has taken on to bring Ukraine back into their fold.
Well you still need someone to farm that arable land. Short of exterminating the local cossacks and replacing them, Russia would have great difficulty tapping the fields of west Ukraine, unlike their ethnic slavs farming east ukraine. There's no doubt the eastern half of Ukraine is simply richer in natural resources, its why it was more developed and populated and Putin already got the prime cuts of this steak, he doesn't need to chew the gristle. And its not like the EU
actually cares about what's going on in Africa, or they wouldn't have ceded their influence in the continent from being colonizers to now letting Russia and China run the entire show while genocides unfurl every few years. How many rallies occur in EU capitols over the Sudanese war?
Just from a strategic map I think it makes sense from Russia's desire for natural resources and a buffer against NATO, and an unwillingness to occupy a hostile land by force and be bled out indefinitely, that they would want the DPR/LPR/Crimea but not have any real designs on west ukraine. And since day 1, we've just had to explain that in spite of Russia's attempt to decapitate Kyiv and take full control of the country, because that makes sense if Putin understood the costs of a long term war and hoped to avoid it with his abortive blitzkrieg.
The big unknown I've laid out a few times is- would Russia have been willing to cede more of eastern europe to NATO encroachment and absorption into the EU, if it had been done peacefully and democratically? If the people of Ukraine had reached that critical support for the EU and willingly joined them, would Putin still have been willing to use force to retain them. Not necessarily by invasion at first, perhaps by subverting their democracy, trying to control their politics, maybe domestic repression, maybe full blown invasion. I don't know how far Putin would go to hold onto the Ukrainian people if all the Ukrainian people were against him. But that never happened, so we don't know. Instead it was a minority in the west who tried to seize the whole of Ukraine and deliver it to the EU, so Putin had his own 'moral superpower' justification to secure the separatist regions. Instead of a gradual shift to the EU, Ukraine was a polarized society riven by civil war. And now all those fertile lands and mines and industry are back behind the iron curtain in body and mind.
This post was edited by Goomshill on Jul 24 2026 11:45am