Mobilization has never actually ceased, since martial law has not been lifted. The so-called "40-day plan" to force Russia into a peace deal, as we are already seeing, consists of bombing civilian infrastructure that has even minimal military relevance. We should expect attacks on various attributes of normal civilian life- if such a thing is still possible, at least by the standards of Hottentot morality. Apparently, shopping centers like Mega (i.e., IKEA) will be among the targets.
Well the bigger problem with the civilian infrastructure bombing campaign is that Ukraine doesn't have the arms to hit every target, so now they've lifted their campaign against gas stations and refineries and Russia is rapidly recovering from shortages. Ukraine can escalate but it can't follow through. Its how the invasion of Russia fell apart, they had a bargaining chip for a while and then lost it to the war of attrition. They can't keep jumping from strategy to strategy half hearted and failing entirely and giving up while searching for their new silver bullet. The Russian oil exports are still strong to India and China, with weekly exports down 25% to China from this disruption and the Caspian terminal pause, but China surging its Q4 contracts for crude, India still unaffected. Overall to Russia its a hiccup. Meanwhile Ukrainian shipping at Odessa is 100% stopped. Not a single vessel is passing through and there's no sign the blockade will be lifted, something we haven't seen since the original crisis before the grain treaty, which itself expired years ago and resulted in this uneasy black sea ceasefire, until now.
Looking at the fragility of Ukraine right now, with high level government turmoil, no elections in years, protests against the TCC and a clearly losing war- attempting to mobilize 18-25 year olds could easily be the straw that breaks the camel's back. There would be both a lack of enough young people to make the difference now that so many have fled, and such a severe backlash from the public it would tear apart the country. People already hate the TCC, having them come for the few kids who are left might spark popular unrest and end the war.
There is no way that Ukraine will go for a peace deal. Also Russia has spent the last 5 years and more looking for a negotiated solution, that time is over.
Well its Zelenksy's words not mine
We're in a time of unstoppable forces meeting immovable objects, something has to give. The war is ripe with ratcheting pressures and desperations that seem impossible to reconcile, its an inevitability they must be relieved or burst. Zelensky is meeting with Witkoff and Kushner on a peace deal, Rubio is meeting with Lavrov. The worse this gets for Ukraine, the less Russia is offering, and now Russia is no longer willing to agree to the same generous land swap terms it offered last round of negotiations because Putin is confident about reconquering the DPR by force.
This post was edited by Goomshill on Jul 23 2026 01:32pm