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Jul 14 2026 04:03pm
They now launch many more drones but again because of Western support, without Star Link the drones are blind. These strikes don't change the situation on the ground though.

Manpower issues are still getting worse. In no way are they in a stronger position than before.


See my previous post: the pressure on Ukraine's front has undeniably gone down over the past 6 months. And while their staffing situation isn't necessarily getting better, at least not nominally, the issue that this shortage of manpower presents for their war efforts has gone down as well.


I'm not Nostradamus and I don't have a crystal ball.

Your argument makes no sense at all.

At the time it was Russia vs Ukraine that was the reality.

You suggesting I had to know what would happen in the future is a complete BS argument. Calling it out right here right now ;)


You: "Ukraine and NATO flirting heavily with each other was the main reason for this war"
Also you: "okay, my prediction that Russia would very quickly defeat Ukraine didn't pan out - but how could I have anticipated that NATO would support Ukraine so much?"
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Jul 14 2026 04:05pm
I meant they are in a much better position today than they were 6 months or a year ago, when their frontlines were under massive stress and the initiative was fully with Russia. Look back in this thread, even in January of this year, goom and I think you or djunior were discussion the possibility of a complete collapse of Ukraine's defenses, or how it was probably only a matter of months until Kramatorsk/Sloviansk would fall.

In recent weeks, Russia's initiative on the ground has lost almost all of its steam, Ukraine was even able to retake some minor territory. Russia's war logistics and its economic backbone are getting pummeled by Ukrainian drones, and Russia doesn't seem to find a counter. All in all, Ukraine's chances of fighting this war to a stalemate have increased dramatically compared to where these odds were 6-24 months ago.




Ukraine is successful striking Russian refineries maybe some other industries to a lesser extent but success on the actual front lines is non-existent. It's essentially guerilla warfare now, make the costs as high to Russia.

Idk how you can look at news of Kostyantynivka almost being taken coming out the last few weeks and come to the conclusion that Ukraine is somehow doing good on the actual battlefield. The Russian progress is slow but it's happening. Not going to list every fortress taken but there's several that have been in Donetsk over the last 6 months, 12 months and years.

Ultimately the prize is all of Donetsk and Russia has systemically moved one way in that oblast.
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Jul 14 2026 04:09pm
Ukraine is successful striking Russian refineries maybe some other industries to a lesser extent but success on the actual front lines is non-existent. It's essentially guerilla warfare now, make the costs as high to Russia.

Idk how you can look at news of Kostyantynivka almost being taken coming out the last few weeks and come to the conclusion that Ukraine is somehow doing good on the actual battlefield. The Russian progress is slow but it's happening. Not going to list every fortress taken but there's several that have been in Donetsk over the last 6 months, 12 months and years.

Ultimately the prize is all of Donetsk and Russia has systemically moved one way in that oblast.


The key point is that their progress has become much slower in recent months than what it was from mid-2023 through late-2025. Just like Ukraine was able to notch its first noteworthy territorial gains in years. And let's not forget that the fuel shortages for the Russian army are bound to increase even more over the coming months.

Is Ukraine's situation good in absolute terms? Hell no. Are their odds of fighting this war to a draw near 50% or even higher? Hell no. Are they in a significantly better/less bad position than half a year ago? Absolutely.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 14 2026 04:11pm
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Jul 14 2026 05:09pm
The key point is that their progress has become much slower in recent months than what it was from mid-2023 through late-2025. Just like Ukraine was able to notch its first noteworthy territorial gains in years. And let's not forget that the fuel shortages for the Russian army are bound to increase even more over the coming months.

Is Ukraine's situation good in absolute terms? Hell no. Are their odds of fighting this war to a draw near 50% or even higher? Hell no. Are they in a significantly better/less bad position than half a year ago? Absolutely.


easy to agree with this view anyway.
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Jul 14 2026 05:55pm
To put numbers to it - numbers which I'm admittedly pulling out of my ass:

Last winter, I would have rated the probability for an outright Ukrainian victory at maybe 1%, for a draw at 20%, for a limited Russian victory at 50% and for an unconditional Russian victory at the remaining 29%.
Today, I would say Ukrainian victory 3%, draw 40%, limited Russian victory 45%, uncoditional Russian victory 12%.

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Jul 15 2026 01:16am
To put numbers to it - numbers which I'm admittedly pulling out of my ass:

Last winter, I would have rated the probability for an outright Ukrainian victory at maybe 1%, for a draw at 20%, for a limited Russian victory at 50% and for an unconditional Russian victory at the remaining 29%.
Today, I would say Ukrainian victory 3%, draw 40%, limited Russian victory 45%, uncoditional Russian victory 12%.


there you go again. bless :)
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Jul 15 2026 05:30am
See my previous post: the pressure on Ukraine's front has undeniably gone down over the past 6 months. And while their staffing situation isn't necessarily getting better, at least not nominally, the issue that this shortage of manpower presents for their war efforts has gone down as well.

You: "Ukraine and NATO flirting heavily with each other was the main reason for this war"
Also you: "okay, my prediction that Russia would very quickly defeat Ukraine didn't pan out - but how could I have anticipated that NATO would support Ukraine so much?"


Ukraine is losing their key strongholds. Kostiantynivka is on the brink These are key battles. I can quote you a list of major strongholds (declared fortress cities by Zelensky) that fell to the Russians, let me know how many the Ukrainians have taken back so far.

@Bold --> BS

This is called the power of hindsight. No one could've exactly predicted how this was going to play out and many countries were cautious, reluctant even to donate military hardware. I think that the EU / NATO twisted quite a few arms at the time.

Saying I'm contradicting myself here because I had to accurately predict the future is complete BS. There you have it
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Jul 15 2026 07:53am
Pootin got crushed in the Azov sea, so he moved the remaining ships to the black Sea. Resulting in 20 more tankers hit in the Black Sea. Total tally of non civilian illegal pootin ships hit by ukraine drones now stands at 136.
More winning by the good guys!



This post was edited by said_aouita on Jul 15 2026 07:54am
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Jul 15 2026 07:56am
Ukraine is losing their key strongholds. Kostiantynivka is on the brink These are key battles. I can quote you a list of major strongholds (declared fortress cities by Zelensky) that fell to the Russians, let me know how many the Ukrainians have taken back so far.

@Bold --> BS

This is called the power of hindsight. No one could've exactly predicted how this was going to play out and many countries were cautious, reluctant even to donate military hardware. I think that the EU / NATO twisted quite a few arms at the time.

Saying I'm contradicting myself here because I had to accurately predict the future is complete BS. There you have it


Lol. Pootin taking a few kilometers while the entirety of his country has no fuel.


Lol
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Jul 15 2026 08:04am
Is Ukraine's situation good in absolute terms? Hell no. Are their odds of fighting this war to a draw near 50% or even higher? Hell no. Are they in a significantly better/less bad position than half a year ago? Absolutely.


If Ukraine keeps targeting refineries, plus Russia continues to have no fuel and eventually a food shortage hits everyone....how long will pootin last in control?

It will be difficult for pootin to continue as leader once this "special military operation " is over.

This post was edited by said_aouita on Jul 15 2026 08:05am
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