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Jul 3 2026 11:58am
sometimes you have to spell it out ok. we dont always get your framing sorry!


np
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Jul 3 2026 12:02pm
"German prosecutors blame Ukrainian government" vs "German prosecutors try to establish connection between the commando and mid-level figures in Ukrainian military" is a huge, meaningful difference and not just 'semantics'.


Why would the MI6 or the CIA take such a huge risk, though? At the time NS was blown up, it had already been inoperative for months (because Russia itself had shut it down). All that blowing it up accomplished was taking a scenario off the table in which Russia promises Germany to resume gas supplies via NS, the German side trusts them in spite of Russia just having proven its untrustworthiness, and then Germany being willing to completely turn on all its European and NATO allies. A very far-fetched scenario.

The risks, on the other hand, were dramatic. If anything during the operation goes wrong and the "true" instigators are found out quickly after the fact, you have a veritable diplomatic crisis and just drove a far bigger wedge between the allies than Russia ever could have. For Western state actors, the calculus just made no sense at that point in time. Such a gungho move only made sense from the perspective of true hardliners in Ukraine or perhaps Poland.



"Why would western intelligence agencies follow up on the threats that their politicians been publicly spamming for years"

Come now. They don't need to do it directly. They just need enough layers here so the finger gets pointed at some lackey. As is the case here.

We've zoomed past that point of caring about instigations at this point. The UK government is giving Ukraine storm shadow missiles which are guided by UK operators likely using US/NATO satellites. I'm still shocked how you still view NATO as some party sitting outside this conflict. If NATO is giving Ukraine hundreds of billions and is actively providing intel you really think a move like this just happened by accident or was undertaken by some rag-tag team?
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Jul 3 2026 12:07pm
"Why would western intelligence agencies follow up on the threats that their politicians been publicly spamming for years"

Come now. They don't need to do it directly. They just need enough layers here so the finger gets pointed at some lackey. As is the case here.

We've zoomed past that point of caring about instigations at this point. The UK government is giving Ukraine storm shadow missiles which are guided by UK operators likely using US/NATO satellites. I'm still shocked how you still view NATO as some party sitting outside this conflict. If NATO is giving Ukraine hundreds of billions and is actively providing intel you really think a move like this just happened by accident or was undertaken by some rag-tag team?


Yes he does believe that and nothing you or I say will change his mind. Thats what makes debates lively. Imagine, if we all agreed, how boring it would be.
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Jul 3 2026 12:15pm
A minor footnote to this evenings conversation:

As I understand it, there is no Actor (Politician or Group) in Germany, that supports the notion that A Rogue Actor, In Ukraine, Is Responsible, for NS. The political discourse, from what I understand, in Germany, appears to be split between those who accept the prosecution's case implicating the Ukrainian state and those who avoid the issue entirely. A bit like how they avoid Gaza you know? The debate in Germany, as presented across multiple sources, is about whether to punish Ukraine as a state, not whether Ukraine as a state, was involved.

Finally, I found a source for your rogue actor theory: https://consortiumnews.com/2023/03/14/scott-ritter-the-nord-stream-andromeda-cover-up/
If you use this to support your position, i really dont know what to say.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 3 2026 12:18pm
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Jul 3 2026 07:19pm
there is a complete logic failure here on your side. If RUSSIA DID IT Denmark and Sweden would have stated this. Ditto if it was a rogue actor. How do you reconcile with this ? I mean if it was a rogue actor in Ukraine, its no big deal ok. put hm in jail and jobs done. Poland EXPLICITLY DENIED an extradition request. I mean come on...as part of the refusal they said "the attack was legitimate self-defence." now I am not a detective but that sounds like a state is involved.


From what I remember, Denmark and Sweden couldn't come to a clear conclusion during their investigation and also weren't particularly motivated since the issue concerns Germany far more than them.

Poland has always been the most anti-NS country in the EU and the rented yacht with which the commando carried out the attack against the pipelines did have a multi-hour stop in Poland, although it's not entirely clear if it was during the outward trip or on the return trip. Furthermore, the travel firm which rented the yacht was located in Warsaw, but turned out to be nothing but a shell company.
https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/nordstream-sabotage-andromeda-polen-100.html

So Poland is looking bad in all of this. Either Polish operatives were directly involved, for example by bringing the explosives to the yacht with the Ukrainian commando. Or Ukrainian operatives brought the explosives to the yacht and Polish authorities either looked the other way or genuinely didn't catch them. And perhaps this travel firm which rented the yacht was a front of Ukrainian intelligence services and operated in the middle of Warsaw for years before cleaning house in the aftermath of the NS attack. No mattter which of these explanations is true, they all make Poland look either complicit or extremely incompetent. Hence, it's no surprise that Poland isn't cooperating with the investigation. This fact alone, however, is not sufficient to prove their guilt or complicity with the degree of certainty which would be required in this context.
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Jul 3 2026 07:34pm
"Why would western intelligence agencies follow up on the threats that their politicians been publicly spamming for years"

Come now. They don't need to do it directly. They just need enough layers here so the finger gets pointed at some lackey. As is the case here.


So your theory of the case is that some high-ranking CIA official tasked his colleagues in the MI6 to contact their colleagues in Ukraine and tell them to find some former elite soldier who is no longer an active member of the UA military and send him and his unit to covertly carry out this attack, all just to make sure that a pipeline which wasn't operational and didn't look likely to get used again anytime soon, would stay shut down permanently? All this effort, all this risk, just to take a scenario off the table which had a likelihood of maybe 5%?


Regarding Nuland and her open glee over NS being blown up: that's not proof of US involvement. For example, imagine that Trump got assassinated - would you get decently high-ranking officials from somewhere in Canada/Europe who voice open glee at his demise? You bet! Would this glee imply that Canada or Europe were behind his hypothetical assassination? Obviously not.




Quote
We've zoomed past that point of caring about instigations at this point. The UK government is giving Ukraine storm shadow missiles which are guided by UK operators likely using US/NATO satellites. I'm still shocked how you still view NATO as some party sitting outside this conflict. If NATO is giving Ukraine hundreds of billions and is actively providing intel you really think a move like this just happened by accident or was undertaken by some rag-tag team?


Just for the record, so that my position doesn't get misrepresented: of course NATO is indirectly involved in this conflict since 2022. I never denied that. What I disagree with is this notion which keeps coming up in this thread, the notion that NATO was actively instigating the escalation with Russia in the years prior (mid-2000s through 2022); that NATO was actively seeking to choke Russia and thus left poor little Russia no other choice than to wage war in Ukraine in some sort of justified self-defense.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 3 2026 07:37pm
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Jul 3 2026 09:00pm
The reasoning behind nato forcing a act from Russia was explained in detail in 2014.. years before the war.. what so hard to believe that some in the G7 did not want Russia and Germany to cooperate in a trade partnership.. plenty of motive to start a war ..And make it look like Russia the only aggressor for the ignorant who ignore all the facts
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Jul 4 2026 04:15am
From what I remember, Denmark and Sweden couldn't come to a clear conclusion during their investigation and also weren't particularly motivated since the issue concerns Germany far more than them.

Poland has always been the most anti-NS country in the EU and the rented yacht with which the commando carried out the attack against the pipelines did have a multi-hour stop in Poland, although it's not entirely clear if it was during the outward trip or on the return trip. Furthermore, the travel firm which rented the yacht was located in Warsaw, but turned out to be nothing but a shell company.
https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/nordstream-sabotage-andromeda-polen-100.html

So Poland is looking bad in all of this. Either Polish operatives were directly involved, for example by bringing the explosives to the yacht with the Ukrainian commando. Or Ukrainian operatives brought the explosives to the yacht and Polish authorities either looked the other way or genuinely didn't catch them. And perhaps this travel firm which rented the yacht was a front of Ukrainian intelligence services and operated in the middle of Warsaw for years before cleaning house in the aftermath of the NS attack. No mattter which of these explanations is true, they all make Poland look either complicit or extremely incompetent. Hence, it's no surprise that Poland isn't cooperating with the investigation. This fact alone, however, is not sufficient to prove their guilt or complicity with the degree of certainty which would be required in this context.


Your theory requires us to believe that:

(a) A rogue actor possessed state-level capabilities
(b) That actor operated without detection or sanction
(c) That actor was never exposed or prosecuted
(d) Multiple states - Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Germany - behaved exactly as they would if state involvement were the truth, but for entirely different reasons

That is not a logical or credible theory.

A state actor, or actors working on behalf of a state - carried out the attack. That state was Ukraine, likely with tacit U.S. support or foreknowledge. The investigations closed because the truth was inconvenient. The suspects are shielded because they are not rogue actors, they are operatives acting in what they believed to be their state's interest. A rogue actor like that is operating without the government's consent, yet somehow never misbehaved agan? how noble.

You have your theory and I have mine. I am leaving it at that.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 4 2026 04:25am
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Jul 4 2026 05:57am
Just for the record, so that my position doesn't get misrepresented: of course NATO is indirectly involved in this conflict since 2022. I never denied that. What I disagree with is this notion which keeps coming up in this thread, the notion that NATO was actively instigating the escalation with Russia in the years prior (mid-2000s through 2022); that NATO was actively seeking to choke Russia and thus left poor little Russia no other choice than to wage war in Ukraine in some sort of justified self-defense.


It started right after the breakup of the USSR and NATO confirms this on their official website (despite promising not to expand East). They've been actively seeking to improve relations with Ukraine and this is for obvious reasons if you consider NATO is a military alliance founded to act as a block against the USSR.

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/partnerships-and-cooperation/relations-with-ukraine

I posted this multiple times (NATO website) and it completely wrecks your position.

Quote
NATO and Ukraine share a deep and enduring partnership. Since the early 1990s, the Alliance and Ukraine have steadily built a strong, mutually beneficial relationship based on close cooperation and shared values.


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Jul 4 2026 08:13am
This guy again :rofl:

When countries that feel threatened by Russia actively seek out Nato membership and closer ties to the EU - of course it is NATO's fault and not Russia.

Explain your motive to me pls. Why do you support a country that is an extremely corrupt and brutal petro state that is renowned for its troll factories and hybrid warfare?

Committing war crimes on a daily basis supporting terrible regimes worldwide.

Is it just because you are anti everything?
Or what I find most convincing - you're on their payroll. You can admit it to me, I can keep a secret :thumbsup:
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