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Jul 3 2026 07:16am
Nord Stream Update

In the last few days Germany's Federal Prosecutor General filed charges against a Ukrainian national, identified as Sergey K., for his alleged role in the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. This follows the closure of investigations by Denmark and Sweden, both of which stepped back without assigning blame. The implication is that Ukraine, or the United States (or both), was responsible, which makes things "complex" or "tricky" to deal with. German prosecutors allege that Sergey K., a former officer in the Ukrainian army, acted on behalf of the Ukrainian government in planning the attack. The stated objective was to permanently halt Russian gas supplies to Europe and deprive Russia of both revenue and political leverage over the continent.

Polish authorities previously refused to extradite another Ukrainian suspect in the case, arguing the attack - targeting Germany, which remains one of Ukraine's largest military and financial supporters - could be considered a legitimate act of self-defence in the context of the war. In other words, bombing infrastructure part-owned by your ally can be framed as self-defence, and another ally (Poland) actively shields the accused from prosecution. This is not a new posture for Warsaw. It was Poland that vetoed the idea of a summit with Russia prior to the invasion, and it is Poland that now stands between Germany and Justice.

Ultimately, had Nord Stream not been blown up, there is a potential that a rift would have arisen in Europe. The most plausible outcome of such a rift is likely to have led to where we are today, i.e. Russia sanctioned and Europe not buying from Russia. The only difference is that Europe has broadly accepted Ukraine's and/or US actions on Nord Stream, while Germany has, for the most part, swallowed this act of terrorism (or if you don't like that word, we will say, armed resistance).

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 3 2026 07:22am
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Jul 3 2026 10:00am
I read it, but there is not a single word there about a threefold numerical advantage. Where do such conclusions come from, then?


Google AI
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Jul 3 2026 10:01am
Nord Stream Update

In the last few days Germany's Federal Prosecutor General filed charges against a Ukrainian national, identified as Sergey K., for his alleged role in the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. This follows the closure of investigations by Denmark and Sweden, both of which stepped back without assigning blame. The implication is that Ukraine, or the United States (or both), was responsible, which makes things "complex" or "tricky" to deal with. German prosecutors allege that Sergey K., a former officer in the Ukrainian army, acted on behalf of the Ukrainian government in planning the attack. The stated objective was to permanently halt Russian gas supplies to Europe and deprive Russia of both revenue and political leverage over the continent.

Polish authorities previously refused to extradite another Ukrainian suspect in the case, arguing the attack - targeting Germany, which remains one of Ukraine's largest military and financial supporters - could be considered a legitimate act of self-defence in the context of the war. In other words, bombing infrastructure part-owned by your ally can be framed as self-defence, and another ally (Poland) actively shields the accused from prosecution. This is not a new posture for Warsaw. It was Poland that vetoed the idea of a summit with Russia prior to the invasion, and it is Poland that now stands between Germany and Justice.

Ultimately, had Nord Stream not been blown up, there is a potential that a rift would have arisen in Europe. The most plausible outcome of such a rift is likely to have led to where we are today, i.e. Russia sanctioned and Europe not buying from Russia. The only difference is that Europe has broadly accepted Ukraine's and/or US actions on Nord Stream, while Germany has, for the most part, swallowed this act of terrorism (or if you don't like that word, we will say, armed resistance).


Thx 4 update. This new news may be deserving of its own thread.
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Jul 3 2026 10:08am
Google AI


Fair enough, but even AI assistants provide links to sources. In this case, the source should contain information about drone production in Russia. I hope we both understand that these Ukrainian and Russian millions of drones are (in the vast majority) FPV drones, which means they can not only be produced but also purchased. Does the final figure reflect the number produced, or the sum of purchased and produced units?
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Jul 3 2026 10:11am
Thx 4 update. This new news may be deserving of its own thread.


Not really, Ukraine can kick this can down the road for a decade. There is no political will in Germany, never mind anywhere else in Europe, to hold Ukraine (or the US) accountable for the blowing up of Nord Stream. Ultimately, Russia invaded and thats the only thing that matters to most of the political elite in Europe. Anything like Nuance, Context, Double Standards, Provocation, Russia's security Interests and What Not, is simply not convenient / not relevant.
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Jul 3 2026 11:18am
Not really, Ukraine can kick this can down the road for a decade. There is no political will in Germany, never mind anywhere else in Europe, to hold Ukraine (or the US) accountable for the blowing up of Nord Stream. Ultimately, Russia invaded and thats the only thing that matters to most of the political elite in Europe. Anything like Nuance, Context, Double Standards, Provocation, Russia's security Interests and What Not, is simply not convenient / not relevant.


That's a VERY loaded framing of the situation. Everyone in Germany is well aware of the severe implications if hard evidence for a connection between the suspect's actions and the Ukrainian government can be established. Which is all the more reason to apply a high standard of proof. In any case, authorities will definitely slow-walk this investigation until at least this spring, when very dicey state elections take place in three Eastern German states where a larger share of the population is sympathetic to the Russian perspective on this conflict.



One more thing, though:
Quote
German prosecutors allege that Sergey K., a former officer in the Ukrainian army, acted on behalf of the Ukrainian government in planning the attack. The stated objective was to permanently halt Russian gas supplies to Europe and deprive Russia of both revenue and political leverage over the continent.

That's actually not true. The working theory of the prosecution, until proven otherwise, is that Sergey K. and his group were rogue actors who struck without official permission or order by any Ukrainian authorities. Ruling out at least a direct order from the Ukrainian government seems reasonable. Hypothetically, say the order came from Zelensky himself - then there surely won't be a written letter signed with the presidential seal telling the guys "Nord Stream must be blown up, but don't tell Ze Germans". ;)

So what needs to be investigated is if there were any inofficial orders or permissions coming from Ukrainian authorities, or if Sergey K. and his team really acted out of their own volition as some sort of "concerned Ukrainian citizens". Considering the strong militia culture in pre-war Ukraine (Azov etc.), I wouldn't fully rule this out either. Personally, I think the most likely explanation is that the order to Sergey K. came from some mid-level, hardline colonel or general, or from a high-ranking intelligence officer, who acted without permission or even consultation with their superiors.

Imho, it is this level of the hierarchy which seems concerned mostly with creating a fait accompli on the ground, whereas high-ranking politicians should have been more keenly aware of the heavy diplomatic and political risks of such a sabotage against an ally. Keep in mind that the whole rationale behind the NS2 attack was concern over Germany turning on them, so based on this same rationale, blowing up German infrastructure would have been a hugely risky move.

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Jul 3 2026 11:19am
That's a VERY loaded framing of the situation. Everyone in Germany is well aware of the severe implications if hard evidence for a connection between the suspect's actions and the Ukrainian government can be established. Which is all the more reason to apply a high standard of proof. In any case, authorities will definitely slow-walk this investigation until at least this spring, when very dicey state elections take place in three Eastern German states where a larger share of the population is sympathetic to the Russian perspective on this conflict.



One more thing, though:

That's actually not true. The working theory of the prosecution, until proven otherwise, is that Sergey K. and his group were rogue actors who struck without official permission or order by any Ukrainian authorities. Ruling out at least a direct order from the Ukrainian government seems reasonable. Hypothetically, say the order came from Zelensky himself - then there surely won't be a written letter signed with the presidential seal telling the guys "Nord Stream must be blown up, but don't tell Ze Germans". ;)

So what needs to be investigated is if there were any inofficial orders or permissions coming from Ukrainian authorities, or if Sergey K. and his team really acted out of their own volition as some sort of "concerned Ukrainian citizens". Considering the strong militia culture in pre-war Ukraine (Azov etc.), I wouldn't fully rule this out either. Personally, I think the most likely explanation is that the order to Sergey K. came from some mid-level, hardline colonel or general, or from a high-ranking intelligence officer, who acted without permission or even consultation with their superiors.

Imho, it is this level of the hierarchy which seems concerned mostly with creating a fait accompli on the ground, whereas high-ranking politicians should have been more keenly aware of the heavy diplomatic and political risks of such a sabotage against an ally. Keep in mind that the whole rationale behind the NS2 attack was concern over Germany turning on them, so based on this same rationale, blowing up German infrastructure would have been a hugely risky move.


what? are you actually saying that you dont think Ukraine or the US is involved in Nord Stream? Also my statement came from German Media:

https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-blast-ordered-by-ukraine-say-german-prosecutors/a-77798230?maca=en-RSS_en_Feedly_World_News-8963-xml-mrss

Are you suggesting this German Media is lying ? I have multiple links i just thought you would find this more palatable then the Russian or Chinese link. I'll see if I can find a translated transcript.

dont worry i wont ask for an apology!

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 3 2026 11:23am
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Jul 3 2026 11:24am
what? are you actually saying that you dont think Ukraine or the US is involved in Nord Stream?


At this point, I don't fully rule out anything. I don't think the US were involved. I also don't think the order came from Zelensky, or that Sergey K. and his team acted on their own. I consider it unlikely that the order came directly from cabinet-level officials, say the defense minister or so, although that's more plausible.

The most likely explanation, in my mind - as I just wrote - is that the orders came from a rogue general or hardline member of the intelligence community.
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Jul 3 2026 11:33am
At this point, I don't fully rule out anything. I don't think the US were involved. I also don't think the order came from Zelensky, or that Sergey K. and his team acted on their own. I consider it unlikely that the order came directly from cabinet-level officials, say the defense minister or so, although that's more plausible.

The most likely explanation, in my mind - as I just wrote - is that the orders came from a rogue general or hardline member of the intelligence community.


I know you hate debating / teasing these things out, but I am bored. We are playing a game:

I say: lets go with your explanation - a rogue actor in Ukraine ordered this act. OK so WE (you and I) are the rogue actor in Ukraine. And we are blowing up a German / Russian Pipeline, because we don't want Germany to be blackmailed by Russia. Because Germany is our ally. Therefore we have decided to blow up "Russia's" (and Germany's) Pipeline. Once its blown up Poland and America say "Well Done". Denmark and Sweden stop their investigation (either once they find out that it was not Russia (not plausible) or once they find out who actually did it - plausible). So in order for this "Rogue" element to succeed they needed to:

(a) Access military-grade explosives and diving equipment
(b) Recruit and deploy a team of trained military divers
(c) Operate a yacht across the Baltic Sea
(d) Evade detection by NATO navies and intelligence agencies
(e) Do all of this without leaving a paper trail that leads back to a superior

that level of capability does not fit the criteria you have outlined for a rogue actor (which is an individual not a state). Denmark and Sweden have sophisticated legal systems. They did not stop investigating because they had no evidence. They stopped because they had evidence that pointed somewhere they did not want to go. If the evidence pointed to Russia, they would have published it and won international praise. If it pointed to a non-state actor, they would have said so.

Instead, they closed their investigations without explanation. That is consistent with having found evidence of involvement by an ally, whether Ukraine, the United States, or both. In such a scenario, continuing the investigation would damage the alliance, and there is no domestic political appetite for that.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 3 2026 11:34am
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