d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > Usa - Iran War
Prev110111213Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll
Member
Posts: 18,066
Joined: Dec 3 2006
Gold: 0.00
Jun 20 2026 01:02am
Marco’s Prediction
Member
Posts: 9,866
Joined: Mar 28 2022
Gold: 38,590.00
Jun 20 2026 07:37am
Aaaaaand it's closed again.

Time for Donny to show us the art of the deal once again :lol:
Member
Posts: 39,662
Joined: Nov 16 2005
Gold: 13.37
Jun 20 2026 07:55am
Member
Posts: 57,239
Joined: Oct 14 2010
Gold: 57,475.92
Jun 20 2026 10:46am
Oh shit back at it?
Don needs to just go full steam ahead cause the (R) party is getting fucked at midterms anyways.
Member
Posts: 44,624
Joined: Feb 28 2008
Gold: 1,393.00
Jun 20 2026 10:53am
This has to be one of the worst foreign affair blunders on the history of the US.
Member
Posts: 18,066
Joined: Dec 3 2006
Gold: 0.00
Jun 20 2026 11:00am
Reports from Lebanon: Hezbollah rejects the ceasefire, clarifying its refusal to end the conflict with Israel
Member
Posts: 56,371
Joined: Jan 19 2007
Gold: 581,199.86
Jun 20 2026 11:31am
So on reading the above (and fact checking) Iran has once again (declared) closed the straight of hormuz on the basis that the US (or its Ally, Israel) have continued their special military operation in Lebanon. This is being widely reported in international media. I am surprised, in a good way*, that Iran did this so promptly, as it means that they genuinely want a diplomatic solution. What I mean is, if they did this after a week of bombardment in Lebanon by Israel, it would not be as powerful as doing it straight away. Basically, from what I gather, The US gave Israel a 60 day reprieve to do what they wanted in Lebanon, and they would argue with Iran that they are following the letter of the law. However, Iran is basically saying no, you are breaking the spirit of the Law, Lebanon was included in the deal, Lebanon is being bombed, you cannot protect Lebanon, so we will.

In terms of Hezbollah, their position is, well we are not going to lay down our arms while Israel is at our door. The deal included a cessation of bombing in Lebanon, which has not happened, therefore Hezbollah continues with their armed resistance (and bomb Israel if they get the chance).

While the window of response was way smaller, the result is the same - Iran has responded. The US and Iran will blame Israel for breaking a deal between the US and Iran. The US is ultimately responsible for the fall out here. The Trump administration did not secure the one thing required to make it work: buy-in from their most critical ally - Israel. In fact the US did no treat Israel like an Ally, unilaterally negotiating with Iran without Israel. These events are also clearly showing that the US negotiating team and Trump administration are woefully inadequate. I was a bit silly yesterday, I thought Iran would wait a week and then lob some ballistic missiles, but closing the straight of hormuz immediately is the simplest (and probably the most effective) response, which does not cause escalation (or rebombardment of Iran)

The most likely scenario now is that Israel will continue its operations in Lebanon (67% of Israeli's polled were in favour of this, the far right in Israel is saying "burn them all"), the Straight of Hormuz will be closed for months and Iran will resume sending Ballistic missiles to Israel in retaliation.

(*Ultimately, in my opinion, Israel was never going to get free reign to do to Lebanon what it did to Gaza. A total victory was and remains not on the cards. On that basis a diplomatic solution, sooner rather then later, is the best result to minimise drivers for future war.) <- i left this in but events outpace this comment.

What Israel should do now is sit down with the US and find something to agree on fast. AFAIK there are elections in October? in Israel, so there is a serious emphasis on being as strong as possible, as hard as possible. no compromise, no retreat.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 20 2026 11:55am
Member
Posts: 18,066
Joined: Dec 3 2006
Gold: 0.00
Jun 20 2026 02:13pm
So on reading the above (and fact checking) Iran has once again (declared) closed the straight of hormuz on the basis that the US (or its Ally, Israel) have continued their special military operation in Lebanon. This is being widely reported in international media. I am surprised, in a good way*, that Iran did this so promptly, as it means that they genuinely want a diplomatic solution. What I mean is, if they did this after a week of bombardment in Lebanon by Israel, it would not be as powerful as doing it straight away. Basically, from what I gather, The US gave Israel a 60 day reprieve to do what they wanted in Lebanon, and they would argue with Iran that they are following the letter of the law. However, Iran is basically saying no, you are breaking the spirit of the Law, Lebanon was included in the deal, Lebanon is being bombed, you cannot protect Lebanon, so we will.

In terms of Hezbollah, their position is, well we are not going to lay down our arms while Israel is at our door. The deal included a cessation of bombing in Lebanon, which has not happened, therefore Hezbollah continues with their armed resistance (and bomb Israel if they get the chance).

While the window of response was way smaller, the result is the same - Iran has responded. The US and Iran will blame Israel for breaking a deal between the US and Iran. The US is ultimately responsible for the fall out here. The Trump administration did not secure the one thing required to make it work: buy-in from their most critical ally - Israel. In fact the US did no treat Israel like an Ally, unilaterally negotiating with Iran without Israel. These events are also clearly showing that the US negotiating team and Trump administration are woefully inadequate. I was a bit silly yesterday, I thought Iran would wait a week and then lob some ballistic missiles, but closing the straight of hormuz immediately is the simplest (and probably the most effective) response, which does not cause escalation (or rebombardment of Iran)

The most likely scenario now is that Israel will continue its operations in Lebanon (67% of Israeli's polled were in favour of this, the far right in Israel is saying "burn them all"), the Straight of Hormuz will be closed for months and Iran will resume sending Ballistic missiles to Israel in retaliation.

(*Ultimately, in my opinion, Israel was never going to get free reign to do to Lebanon what it did to Gaza. A total victory was and remains not on the cards. On that basis a diplomatic solution, sooner rather then later, is the best result to minimise drivers for future war.) <- i left this in but events outpace this comment.

What Israel should do now is sit down with the US and find something to agree on fast. AFAIK there are elections in October? in Israel, so there is a serious emphasis on being as strong as possible, as hard as possible. no compromise, no retreat.


Israel ceasefire on friday, hezbollah refuse to ceasefire which means you missed the entire picture.
Member
Posts: 17,321
Joined: Dec 5 2007
Gold: 4,342.80
Jun 20 2026 02:19pm
This has to be one of the worst foreign affair blunders on the history of the US.


It’s not even top 3 involving Iran heh
Member
Posts: 56,371
Joined: Jan 19 2007
Gold: 581,199.86
Jun 20 2026 04:01pm
Israel ceasefire on friday, hezbollah refuse to ceasefire which means you missed the entire picture.

If you agree to a cease fire it should not be a big ask to withdraw your troops. Reports suggest:

(a) Israel bombed the hell out of Lebanon the day before the ceasefire which is in keeping with their policy and not in good faith.
(b) Israeli officials explicitly said troops would remain in southern Lebanon and Israel rejected calls for withdrawal which is direct conflict with the ceasefire agreement.
(c) After the ceasefire began, reports outline ongoing and intensified Israeli air strikes, these were not small strikes, we are talking about aerial bombardment.
(d) Israel's official position is that it is not bound by the US-Iran Deal.

Ultimately, you and I both know that Israel has no intention of abiding by any ceasefire, the idea is to destroy Hezbollah, a total victory, that is why Israel is so angry at the US right now. So to say that Hezbollah broke the ceasefire is ignoring the elephant in the room, i.e. : That the ceasefire agreement was between the US and Iran, Israel was not invited, the US did not properly persuade Israel to agree to the cease fire and Israel has made multiple comments over the last 24 hours that suggest they have no intention of stopping their war on Lebanon.

the TLDR is that Israel was never a party to the ceasefire, does not recognise the ceasefire and continues to do what it deems is in its own interests.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 20 2026 04:02pm
Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
Prev110111213Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll